Archive - May 25, 2010

We see no shortage of market commentators claiming that investors should be buying into this rapid selloff. Of course, these commentators never saw a correction coming in any event. Our advice is to be patient and disciplined and let the market do the talking. - David Rosenberg

The most ominous sign for US bank P&L continues to not relent: the 2s10s curve, which is the primary source of "revenue" for the hedge funds formerly known as US banks until a bunch of idiots came along and repealed Glass-Steagall, has just gone inside 240 bps. As before, we view this as the primary margin call threat, as billions, if not trillions, of wrong-way bets on curve steepening move further out of the money with every passing basis point. Once the first major repo counterparty blinks and demands a trand unwind, this trade will snap and we could see an even faster flattening, which would lead to some scary consequences for every other asset class.

If anyone has been curious why the Fed, banks and politicians have all been pushing for the "consumer protection" portion of the Financial Regulation bill, it appears we may have the answer. As CNSNews.com reports, the bill "would create the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection and empower it to “gather information and activities of persons operating in consumer financial markets,” including the names and addresses of account holders, ATM and other transaction records, and the amount of money kept in each customer’s account. The new bureaucracy is then allowed to “use the data on branches and [individual and personal] deposit accounts … for any purpose” and may keep all records on file for at least three years and these can be made publicly available upon request." And quoting verbatim from the Bill: "[T]he Bureau shall have the authority to gather information from time to time regarding the organization, business conduct, markets, and activities of persons operating in consumer financial services markets." Goodbye privacy, hello 1984.

• $42 Billion 2 Years close at 0.769% high yield (91.01% allotted), 0.762% expected, 1.024% previous, 0.989% one year average
• Bid-To-Cover comes in at2.93x, lowest since December 2009; prior came in at 3.03x, 3.08 one year average; with stock markets collapsing, no more need for PDs to overbid
• Indirect Bidders: 36.22%, 31.04% previous, 43.23% one year average
• Direct Bidders: 15.18%, 21.41% previous, 11.88% one year average
• Primary Dealer take down 23.06%

If you needed any confirmation that the next round of QE is just around the corner, here it is. Just headlines for now. As the US is in a pretty "bad downturn" right about now, it is only a matter of time before Bernanke flips the turbo-print switch. Recall that Bob Janjuah expects the Fed to launch a new $5 trillion QE version by early 2011. The odds of him being right just went HFT caught in a short squeeze. Bullard also noted that QE will be removed eventually and in due course, which he presumably equated with a 5 year period. Expect ZIRP to last through 2015 at least. By then US debt/GDP will be around 100x (not %).

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 25/05/10

A few days ago we wondered if Tim Geithner was a pathological liar, an idiot or just confused. Today we may be one step closer to getting the answer. In an unprecedented gesture of magnanimity, also known as an expression of the US banking cartel's control over the world, the Treasury Secretary will advise Europe to conduct the same sham exercise in fraud and lies, as America did when it conducted its own Stress test, which found that all US banks are perfectly solvent (as long as they all have direct access to the Fed printing press). Geithner's thinking is that once Europe also "realizes" that each and every bank is "perfectly viable" despite all the evidence to the contrary, that investors will say "boy, we sure look like idiots being worried, when the very credible EU itself says everything is fine." Of course, this is the opposite of what will happen. It does, however, bring questions to the legitimacy of our own stress test, which as everyone knows was a well-engineered goal seeked sham designed to do nothing but to also fool investors into a false sense of calm that the ponzi still has some life in it.

Hate to say I told you so.

The chart below demonstrates that while concerns about Libor are gaining steam, a far more dangerous situation has developed in the Euro Commercial Paper (top tier) market, where rates have surged far more in the past week than even compared to Euro Libor or Euribor. As those who were alive in the days after Lehman will recall, the freezing up of the Commercial Paper market was one of the primary reasons for the Fed's creation of the Commercial Paper emergency liquidity funding facility (CPFF). If the CP market once again dies, or, as it is better known in polite circles, "locks up" it will once again set off the avalanche of locked up credit markets initially for financial and other IG companies, and shortly thereafter spread to all other segments of the market. Should the CP rates continue rising without moderation, look for European credit markets to break soon enough.

Who should investors listen to; the markets or the Fed? One says we are in for a double dip recession, the other just raised GDP forecasts. The head of our central bank Benjamin S. Bernanke has a perfect track record for predicting economic outcomes. Unfortunately, his track record is only perfect due to its 100% inaccuracy. The Fed Chairman once assured investors that the subprime housing crisis was contained and would not bring down real estate prices or affect the overall economy. Then, after being proven completely wrong by the near collapse of the entire global economy, Mr. Bernanke moved to an emergency Federal Funds target rate of 0-25 bps and has held it there for 17 months. And even though the economy has posted three straight quarters of growth, has shown no inkling to provide American savers with a decent return on their money deposited in banks. Now we find the Federal Reserve once again proving it has an unlimited aptitude for ineptness by actually raising their G.D.P. forecast from a growth range of 2.8%-3.5% to 3.2-3.7%. - Michael Pento

And just when the bulls were hoping for a bounce, expansion.com reports that four new Spanish savings banks are considering a "cold fusion" which is another name for future bailout of one instead of four. The four banks are CajaMurcia, CajaGranada, Sa Nostra, Caixa Penedes and their combined assets amount to over €100 billion. As we expected, this weekend's bailout of Cajasur was Spain's equivalent to the New Century Financial blow up tipping out. Look for the unwind to accelerate now.

Reuters reports that a government spokesman has announced that North Korea has cut all relations with Seoul. In other completely unfounded rumors, the market allegedly expects that the ECB will cut its 1.00% rate by 50 bps. Because JCT can't wait to tell his favorite investment bank just what and when he will be doing.

It's a good thing people have lots of confidence left in this market.

The S&P just took out 2010 intraday lows set in February. The response was an immediate bounce and a jump in volume as the "counterintuitive" bid steps in to prevent a massive rout, even as the NYSE is still broken. Have fun trading this busted mess.

Get your non pro-forma adjusted market hats here. In related news, one wonders why the flash algos that bought up the market like crazy when it bounced 700 points two weeks ago are today. Also, the NYSE has just released an update: the market is still broken.