Archive - May 5, 2010

Like clockwork: Europe closes, volume flattens, and the market rips. With Greece's revolution now "certainly" resolved even as European markets closed at the lows (someone forgot to tell the Greek people who have now locked down the country in a persistent striking state), nobody can bother the US algos, who only look at themselves as a referential point, and at low volume as reinforcement. And with the US algos out of the barn, the carry traders resume, the AUD now back to 0.91 and the EURUSD back to 1.2900. Credit is ignoring the mini melt up as both IG and HY are wider for the day (+4 and +25 bps, respectively). But at least Getco and SigmaX's no-volume algos can give the impression that all is well with the world, even as Greece and now Portugal are shut out from the funding markets, and the IMF and the ECB's credibility is blown to smithereens. The astrophysicists in charge of the US capital markets are unperturbed.

There’s a surfeit of instructionals on the secret to investing, ranging from Investing for Dummies to The Intelligent Investor. My bookshelves at home are full of them, and I’ve learned or at least absorbed something from many. Experience is a great teacher, but the foundation of civilization, and too investing, is also dependent upon the capsulization of the experiences of others and that is where books have played a formative part in my own career. Still, there’s never been a book called “Common Sense for Dummies,” which would be required reading in my investment class if either existed. That’s an oxymoron to begin with, though, which points to the obvious – that common sense cannot be taught. It’s like sex appeal – you either have it or you don’t, although both are subject to relative judgments of the observer. What is commonsensical to one investor may seem ludicrous to someone else. And even in cases where history has validated the irrationality of one investment idea or another – the subprime frenzy being perhaps the most recent – there are questions of timing. Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short is not only a tale of the validation of common sense, but of its delicate shelf life. Most of Lewis’s heroes were almost all closed out by their own clients before their logic blossomed and their profits multiplied. - Bill Gross

The Rating Outlook revision to Negative incorporates recent legal developments and ongoing regulatory challenges that could adversely impact Goldman's reputation and revenue generating capacity. Goldman's franchise and market position are potentially vulnerable to scrutiny by stakeholders, and like peers, may be affected by the industry's regulatory evolution.

We are shocked the "Red Alert" is happening a full day after the exchange allowed the biggest selloff in many months to occur.

Update: here is where readers can dial in to hear about the NYSE meltdown first hand

Bridge Line- 888-669-2803

Access # - 7956260

Ealier today Jim Rickards of Omnis, formerly LTCM's GC, was on CNBC and was subjected to some "probing" questions by Joe Kernan in which the anchor asks Rickards if he is a "conspiracy theorist" for his recent insights into the potential investigation of JP Morgan's market rigging behavior by the DOJ. Rickards replies that he isn't, and follows it up with some gold price target observations based on "8th grade math": the former LTCM man sees gold going up by at least 10 times, and hitting $5,000 rather easily. We wonder if to CNBC there is any uglier word than "conspiracy theory" even when the "theory" is backed 100% by facts.

Albert Edwards is back to discussing the now conventionally accepted schism between the European core and its periphery, which he now sees as having passed the point of no return: "My own view of developments, for what it is worth, is that any ?help? given to Greece merely delays the inevitable break-up of the eurozone." What is more troubling is his insight into the psychology of Europeans, which unlike apathetic Japanese or US citizens, actually know when to say enough, and how to manifest their displeasure: "Unlike Japan or the US, Europe has an unfortunate tendency towards civil unrest when subjected to extreme economic pain. Consigning the PIGS to a prolonged period of deflation is most likely to impose too severe a test on these nations. And the political "consensus" within the PIGS to remain in the eurozone could falter in the face of another of Europe's unfortunate tendencies - the emergence of small extreme parties to take advantage of any unrest. My own view is that there is little "help" that can be offered by the other eurozone nations other than temporary confidence-giving "sticking plasters" before the ultimate denouement: the break-up of the eurozone." We are not sure if the emergency of another Hitler for Gen Z is more concerning than the imminent end of the euro, so we'll leave it at that for now. However, for immediate trading purposes, daytraders may want to take warning in the following A.E. words of caution: "Investors should therefore be far more wary of buying on the dip this time."

The US Treasury has announced the issuance of $78 billion in new coupons in the second week of May, of which $30.9 billion will go to paying down maturing notes, and $47.1 billion will be new cash. The issuance amount of the 3 and 10 Years are $2 and $1 billion less than recent February issuance. The Treasury has also announced "that other nominal coupon offerings may come down as well in coming month." With tax withholdings nowhere near to where they need to be, we are largely skeptical of this announcement, and we expect that Bills issuance will have to ramp up to provide the needed cash balance. Also notable is that the UST will commence to raise far more money in the TIPS market, as it hopes that investors will buy into the whole doctored CPI: Beginning in July, 10-year TIPS will move to an every other month cycle, with two new issues (in July and January) each to be reopened twice.

• $38 billion in 3 Year Notes May 11
• $24 billion in 10 Year Notes May 12
• $16 billion in 30 Year Notes May 13

And an as yet undetermined amount in 3 and 6 month bills, likely another $50 billion total.

At last check the ES was just at 1,160 after briefly dropping lower. The primary factor for the market drop is the complete panic that is gripping Europe. And here we were one month ago with supposedly intelligent people saying get Greece off the front-page because it is now "boring" news. When Greece restructures its debt in a few weeks, the euro hits parity, European banks are forced to recognize $150 billion in GGB losses, Portugal, Spain and Italy CDS are all at 400, major re/insurance companies are facing liquidity crunches, our insistence on keeping Greece front and center may prove to have been the correct one after all.

The prophetic STUPID sovereign index (Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy, Dubai) is now at 250 bps, having surged by over 50 bps in a few days. At this rate we may soon take out the 370 bps all time record high last seen when the world was ending in March 2009. Alas, with the IMF and the ECB's total failure to prevent contagion, this is more than a distinct possibility.

The Euro is in free fall. And Goldman Sachs is not helping, as the firm reiterates it has a core short position on EURUSD. Alas, Goldman's 1.2880 support level was just taken out. Watch out below.

The bond market in Greece and Portugal is now rumored to now be shut down for the day due to total chaos, not to mention potential imminent revolution in Athens. We expect the US to "decouple."

Today's rating action reflects the recent deterioration of Portugal's public finances as well as the economy's long-term growth challenges. "The review for possible downgrade will consider a repositioning of Portugal's ratings to reflect the potentially lasting deterioration in the government's debt metrics," says Anthony Thomas, Vice President-Senior Analyst in Moody's Sovereign Risk Group. "In the context of a small and slow-growing economy, such debt metrics may no longer be consistent with a Aa2 rating."

The weakening of Portugal's public finance position reflects the failure of successive administrations to consistently limit government budget deficits since Portugal joined the eurozone at its inception. "More recently, however, the government's has reiterated its objective to achieve or even surpass the deficit reduction targets published in its latest Stability and Growth Programme," says Mr. Thomas. "The well-structured debt profile means that refinancing risks are modest."

For those without access to CNN or BBC, you can watch the attempted storming of the Greek parliament live at this webcast. After confrontations got heated earlier with tear gas hot potatoes being thrown between citizens and riot police, things have moderated somewhat now, although riot police has still completely encircled the parliament building. Full link here. In the meantime, we are seeing confirmed reports that 3 people have died after a firebomb went off at a Marfin bank branch.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 05/05/10

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 05/05/10