Archive - Jun 2010

You would think if someone is willing to handle the Gulf oil clean-up with equipment and technology not available in the U.S., and finishes the job in shorter time than the current estimate, the U.S. should jump on the offer. But it turned out to be quite the opposite.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 09/06/10

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 09/06/10

Some reality to go with your reported fiction?

From the lawsuit: "Goldman intentionally failed to provide correct information regarding the state of the market in Timberwolf and/or intentionally failed to provide correct information concerning Goldman's actual opinion concerning the state of the market for the Timberwolf security and its quality and value. At the time Goldman made these statements to BYAFM, Goldman was actively shorting both Timberwolf and comparable securities because Goldman's internal assessment of the market for such securities was that their value would drop. In order to reduce Goldman's exposure to CDOs, Goldman personnel made false and misleading statements of material fact, knowing such statements were false and misleading... and with knowledge that BYAFM would rely on them in making the decision to purchase an interest in Timberwolf. Moreover, Goldman personnel failed to disclose material information knowing that, by this omission, information that they did disclose was rendered misleading, or they acted with reckless disregard as to whether the omission of the information rendered other disclosures misleading."

Even as the regularly scheduled take down of gold sends the risky FX pairs (but not the EURCHF), and their immediate computerized proxy, the S&P, higher, the truth about Europe's bad and deteriorating liquidity is out there in plain view. The most recent ECB Discount Facility usage just hit a fresh new all time high at €365 billion, 15 billion higher compared to two days ago, and €80 billion higher compared to a month ago. Banks are now openly warehousing every euro bill they can find with the ECB. Compounding the issue, is the continuing grind higher in the EUR Libor, hitting a fresh 2010 high of 0.65%. The primary driver for these adverse development was the earlier news in Spanish newspaper Cinco Dias that Spanish interbank liquidity no longer exists. And while reality is uglier by the day as the double dip reality seeps in, in the realm of rosy mythology, we have Ben Bernanke seeing US economic growth, and the World Bank rising global GDP growth forecasts. Picks your side.

Update: ok, the 10,000 people that just hit the server didn't help.

We apologize for the extended downtime. European server hosts responsible for the crash will be promptly punished when their sovereign CDS shortly catch up with BP's defaults risk (+108 now to 368bps, 27% implied default probability for 5 Y). We are comforted by the fact that Ben Bernanke sees no future crash for Zero Hedge servers, ever again.

All of BP’s efforts to date have really been “Hail Mary’s” doomed to failure. Bring in a small tactical nuclear weapon, or you can kiss BP goodbye.
It’s a lot easier than it sounds, and would probably work. It’s either that, or face the environmental equivalent of Chernobyl meets Katrina. (BP).

There are some who will take up hundreds of pages to explain something as simple as the complete bankruptcy of the US entitlement program. Others, like Morgan Stanley in this case, present it succinctly- why write and write and write when a one page income (well, loss technically) statement will suffice? In a presentation, oddly focusing on Internet Trends, the MS team puts up an appendix page that probably should make the inbox of every politician in America. In a nutshell, when analyzing the math of entitlement spending, even as revenues flatline (at best), and decline (realistically), the expenses are quite literally growing geometrically. At this rate of deterioration, the Loss on the entitlement P&L will be at ($3 trillion) a year by 2013. For those who don't buy this estimate, here is a refresh: it was +$128 billion in 2001, (318) billion in 2005, and ($1,413) billion in 2009. Then there are some like former Western Asset Management personnel, who are so confused by numbers so massively negative, that they #Ref out their excel spreadsheets, and tend to ignore them altogether. Which brings us to the topic of the night - those who find the most efficient way to short Western Asset Management (and its retention policy of never hiring those proficient with positive and negative integers... forget about floating point) will win a free Zero Hedge hat.

Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has proposed several changes to the pension system for police officers and firefighters. But the unions are suing, and they may have a good case.

The week's biggest (sovereign) CDS movers have been released, and we have some new entrants in the most endangered species list. While by now nobody will be surprised that the UK is a consistent top 2 player (coming in this week with $319 million in net notional derisking, this making it the 8th week or so the country has made the top 3), only behind Italy and its $452 million in net notional, and just in front of last week's #1 Brazil, the presence of the United States at #4 should be a little unsettling. It has been months since the US appeared in the top 5. And just like in the long gold case, the same types of existential questions once again arise when the interest in US CDS picks up: who gets to pay off your contracts in the case of an event of default? Elsewhere, the presence of Korea and Turkey (or Australia) in the top 10 should not come as too surprising. On the other end, short covering was violent in CDS of Spain, Hungary and Portugal - Europe's newest lepers. Is the CDS community concerned the EU can actually pull out a rabbit out of the hat that actually works for once? Hardly. The top 10 reriskers also saw the inclusion of France and long-forgotten insolvent Greece.

The total NAV in tonnes in GLD has just hit a fresh new all time high, climbing by 12.2 tonnes overnight, and closing at 1298.53. Gold holdings in the ETF have now increased by 30 tonnes over the past week, taking up all the weekly gold supply produced by miners on the planet. Also, as the charts below demonstrate, after being relatively flat, total gold tonnage in the GLD has increased at a dramatic pace over the past month, increasing by 10% of all assets, even as gold fixing has only increased by 4% during the same time period. It appears even non-physically backed gold ETFs are now scrambling to get all the gold (either real or imaginary) they can get their hands on.

Absolute Return+Alpha has put together a must read profile of Seth Klarman and his hedge fund Baupost: a formidable combination, which has quietly become the sixth largest alternative asset manager in the US: "Seth Klarman, president and portfolio manager of 28-year-old Baupost Group, is considered the dean of value investing among hedge fund pros, and such a devotee of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd that he was the lead editor to the reissue of their classic, "Security Analysis,"in 2008. With his wire-rimmed glasses, graying beard and kindly smile, the 53-year-old Klarman has a gentle, professorial air about him—and a reputation as a cautious investor who is more likely to be found sitting on a mound of cash than taking big risks in frothy markets. But if Baupost has been able to throw its weight around recently, it's not just because beaten-down markets provided tremendous opportunities for value investors. It's also because Klarman has been on such an asset-building binge that Baupost has become the sixth-largest hedge fund firm in the UnitedStates, with $21 billion under management—three times the $7.4 billion Klarman managed just three years ago."

Reflexivity is a bitch.

One of the highlights pointed out by those demonstrating the "resurgence" of the US consumer has been the increasing SAAR of car sales in the US. To be sure, May's SAAR of 11.6 million in light vehicle sales was the highest since September of 2008, when it was at 12.5 million (as seen on the chart below). Yet one item often ignored is that the incentives, especially by the Big 3, as reported by Autodata have reached record highs in May 2010, averaging $3,470 per car for the Detroit 3. Not surprisingly, the one company that is not bankrupt or a ward of the state, Ford is the one providing the lest amount of subsidies. And even as the D-3 capture market share, Asian automakers have not only not followed suit with a comparable ramp up in incentives, but some are in fact doing the prudent thing and cutting back on subsidies. Furthermore, the recent million car+ recalls by Chrysler and GM have not been mentioned even once by CNBC Phil Lebeau, even as the latter spearheaded a governmentally-mandated crusade against Toyota, fully intent on discrediting the Asian carmaker. Lack of free market dynamics aside, here is a snapshot of the most recent car sale trends in the US, coupled with inventory, incentive and granular D-3 sales data.