Archive - Jun 2010

This is a look at the downside of boom and bust economics. It is Austrian creed that central banks create the boom-bust cycle. Keynesians and Monetarists take a different view, and generally rule out our Fed as being the "cause" of business cycles. This is the story of a fine local bank that got caught up in the boom-bust cycle without understanding it. The bank cratered and took down many good people with it. Keynes said "in the long term we'll all be dead." Some of these folks don't have that luxury. When will we learn?

No, we are not joking. After yesterday's explosion in Texas claimed one life, a new gas pipeline explosion has occurred near Darrouzet, Texas. No reports of casualties yet, although several people have been reported missing. This is starting to really not look good for the President's clean energy initiative.

We're getting close.

Tuesday was one of the least interesting trading days in many months. Sometimes, these days are preferable to the days with huge advances or declines, but it often makes it difficult to take something profound or revealing from that particular day. And this clearly was a day without any guiding light, any revelation or profound meaning in it. Oil prices finished reasonably close to home on Tuesday. Crude oil prices posted minor gains and refined products showed minor losses. Traders seem to have been waiting for this week’s reports to shed some fresh light in the markets or on the supply and demand of crude oil or products in these markets. The API report came out after trading ended. This week’s American Petroleum Institute (API) statistical survey showed a steep drawdown in crude oil stocks of 4.544 million barrels. That was much more than expected and was supportive. Distillate stocks increased by 3.002 million barrels, while gasoline stocks were up 1.481 million barrels. Both of these builds were more than expected. Distillate demand came in at 4.074 million bpd. Gasoline demand came in at a disappointing
8.817 million bpd. Crude oil imports increased by 728,000 bpd and refinery utilization was up by 0.2% to 86.8%.

Hello ... is anyone there to confirm or deny this?

With JPM doing the ritualistic gold slaughter in the hour before the close, it was all systems go. The SPY IOIA in the last 20 minutes of the meltup is nothing short of a work of art, with every single ETF desk going nuts doing their best to telegraph to whatever HFT algos are left that massive blocks are on the bidside and that it is safe to lift every offer. We wish we could present them all but we will limit ourselves to the hundred or so "trades" at 3:49 PM by GFI Group. Because this is precisely the best way to split a massive order block into "unobtrusive" child algorithms.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 08/06/10

Recently there has been a lot of bullish opinions in the market attempting to debunk the reality that Spain is next on the contagion bandwagon, despite glaring signs to the opposite. Below is probably the best analysis, from JPMorgan, destroying all myths and mirages that Spain will survive the contagion intact. Also, no love loss for Chiswick here.

Nothing too surprising here today: Portuguese, Greek, and Spanish blowouts are now are daily occurrence... Except for the redness in the France column. On a day when the German 5 and 10 year Bunds are closing at record levels, seeing this kind of underperformance in French bonds can only indicate one thing: the barbarians at the gate have gotten past the periphery and are now closing in on the core.

From Bank of America Energy Analyst Douglas Becker: "Pictures show a potential oil leak next to DO’s Ocean Saratoga, a 2nd generation semisubmersible working ten miles offshore in Mississippi Canyon Block 20. The rig is working for privately held Taylor Energy. While there is no  confirmation either way (leak or no leak), we believe the rig is in the process of plugging and abandoning (P&A) a well where the platform was damaged during Hurricane Ike, rather than engaged in exploration drilling. While more details will emerge, this is not another well control incident like the blowout on the Deepwater Horizon, but appears to be clean up mandated by the Minerals Management Services (MMS). See the imbedded link for more info (http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/fastfacts/LeaseLiab/leaseliabilities.asp)."

It seems that wherever you look right now, everyone hates the Euro. Pundits on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, newspapers, Web sites, as well as investors and many hedge fund managers say the common currency is doomed. The argument is very convincing. Profligate spending by the Club Med countries will force the choice between austerity programs that risk social upheaval and the breakdown of the common currency. The outlook is dim and the crowd is clearly bearish on the Euro as evidenced by the hard selling this year, especially since April. Just last week the cover of Newsweek had “The End of the Euro” on its cover. However, as any seasoned trader knows, there’s more than one side to a trade and when one prevailing view dominates, great trading opportunities arise.

The pragmatic Nomura Keynesian addresses the recent change of Japan's Prime Minister, in what is possibly the best analysis on policy implications of the second coming of Naoto Kan. Yet where Koo shines through is his condemnation of the recent prudent approach defined during this weekend's G20 meeting, in which Europe has "just said no" to pursuing record deficits. Apparently the lack of a European desire to hit the Nitrokeynesian button and go all in on a bet Keynes is right (or, gasp, wrong) has made Koo so furious, he proclaims: "Premature fiscal consolidation is a threat to democracy." In essence, Koo, a devout Keynesian, is taking the false religion's argument one step further to its logical conclusion: that any change, be it today, tomorrow or whenever, will ultimately result in the collapse of the developed world's social fabric, once societies realize they have been fooled for ages by a ruling oligarchy of kleptrocrats. That, we agree with wholeheartedly. As Koo says: "Pushing ahead with these misguided policies risks a collapse of social and economic foundations and could even threaten the survival of democratic structures." Too bad Europe doesn't have our jolly Direct Bidder/Primary Dealer backstops to make sure no bond auction ever fails in perpetuity. Koo is 100% correct that the unwind is beginning as more and more people realize they would rather deal with the pain now, than a version thereof which is 1,000 times worse in a few years.

There is simply no way the SNB is going to conduct unsterilised intervention on this magnitude and very quickly lose complete control of domestic money supply. The fact that EUR/CHF has declined by 10% even though the SNB has sold nearly CHF 190bn, or 35% of GDP, since the spring of last year, is a clear a demonstration that sterilised intervention, for this is what the SNB has done, simply does not work. It is a con-trick, one which the market is learning to look through... We are therefore opening a 1Y EUR/CHF 1.2500 at-expiry digital put, priced at 13% off a 1.3870 spot. - JP Morgan

The crunch in funding continues. As we wrote yesterday, there is $673 billion in Commercial Paper maturing over the next month and a half. The problem is that the rolling of all this paper will come at increasingly higher costs. Today the market for US 7 Day CP hit level of 0.61%. As the chart below indicates, the current CP rate is not only the highest in 2010, but higher than CP costs during the March 2009 market lows. More worrying is that despite the recent unprecedented volatility in daily rate swings, the trend is one of an accelerated increase. At this rate of increase, the Fed may soon need to put the CPFF program back in play.The most worrying is the implication 7 Day CP rates have for the FF rate: while 7 Day CP historically has tracked the Fed Funds tick for tick, over the past few months we have once again seen a major divergence between the two. In this closest proxy to short-term funding, the market is now notifying Bernanke that the Fed Funds rate is now about 36 bps off and increasing.

Middle East oil countries should increase production of heavy oil as oil prices remain higher and improved technology makes it easier, those attending an industry conference in Bahrain were told. Bahrain’s oil minister, Abdulhussain Mirza, told the Heavy Oil World MENA conference that heavy oil reserves in the region were estimated at 1 trillion barrels, or 28% of total world reserves, but historically accounted for little more than 10% of production. “The vast reserve demonstrates the importance of heavy oil as a future energy source, one that cannot be overlooked and, therefore, companies that position themselves early in the heavy oil business are likely to win the game,” Mirza said, according to local news reports.