Archive - Jun 2010

True story.

A team at Goldman, decidedly different team from the one which this morning said the EUR could drop to a 1.16 level shortly, looks at recent fund flow data and notes that with the US now perceived as a safe haven to the rest of the world, particularly Europe, a fact which implicitly is a huge benefit to the treasury supply onslaught as buyers for USTs no matter the yield or maturity, are easily found in this environment of insecurity. No surprise there: it is almost as if Europe's problems were engineered, courtesy of a EURUSD which was kept too high, for too long, by too many market participants. Goldman's conclusion is that the dollar is not the fundamental safe haven it is portrayed to be, but is, once again, merely the best of the worst. As Goldman's Robin Brooks highlights: "non-Treasury portfolio inflows are still falling short of covering the monthly trade deficit, in contrast to before the crisis when they were more than enough. This is consistent with our often repeated view that the BBoP (broad basic balance) for the US remains weak and is why – even in the face of strong foreign inflows into Treasuries – we remain cautious about the USD outlook." The primary reason for the increasingly strong bid for gold is explained by Brooks' observation: while unwinds in existing FX carry pairs continue to implicitly benefit the dollar, when it comes to allocating capital to a safe haven, the only recourse continue to be gold. And as FX is fickle, all it takes is one massive short covering spree to invert the balance of power once again in the direction of the EUR: all that would be needed is a wholesale realization that the consolidated US balance sheet is in far worse shape than that of Europe, and for the herd to shift from one side of the boat to the other.Yet should more volatility come into FX markets, gold would benefit even more.

Even though the numbers above show the last prices, rather than the settlements, we now know that July crude ended Monday’s session with a 7-cent loss in a quiet trading day during which traders covered shorts and tried to figure out what shoe would drop next. Investors, those holding oil as an asset, seem to have been liquidating long positions nearer the day’s highs, while traders who had gotten short - based on heavy supplies in the oil market - were lightly covering, taking profits and talking about events in the US Gulf, where the BP oil spill continues to taint the picture moving forward for offshore drilling.

The pain for the onshore drillers is just starting. Following last week's explosion of an EOG Resources nat gas well in Clearfield County, Pennsylvania, the Department of Environmental Protection today ordered the firm to suspend gas well drilling activities in the state indefinitely, "until DEP has completed a comprehensive investigation into the leak and the company has implemented any needed changes." Somehow we have a feeling after today's follow up, and much more visible explosion in Texas, the reaction by the government will be exponentially worse for the nat gas drilling industry.

Update: The pipe belongs to Enterprise Products Partners LP. Bloomberg reports: "Enterprise Products Partners LP shut a portion of its 36-inch natural gas pipeline after the line was struck by a fire. The line stretches from Waha in West Texas to the Carthage Hub in Panola,  Rick Rainey, a company spokesman said in a telephone interview."

Following up on last week's explosion in Pennsylvania, Fox News is currently tracking a massive gas well explosion near Granbury, Texas. The fireball is so large (and currently blazing as the Fox News video below attest) that it can be seen 30 miles away. 3 have been reported dead, 6 are injured, and 10 are missing.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 07/06/10

The latest HSBC hedge fund performance report is out, this one including P&L through the end of May. In short, a bloodbath. Some notable performers for the month of May:

• RIEF B: (4.46%)... and just 0.74% YTD
• Moore Global: (9.15%)... now that's a pounding.
• Tudor: (2.26%)
• Fortress Drawbridge: (1.31%)
• Millennium: (1.31%)
• Pershing Square: (2.20%)
• York: (4.80%)

And much more.

With this Thursday's roll from the June to the September contract, the volume in the futures is playing tricks on robots and speculators. As the volume in the on the run June (M) contracts begins disappearing, the volume in the September (U) contracts is picking up (although in the chart below the cumulative divergence is pretty much meaningless as there has barely been any volume in this contract prior to today). As such, a big factor for today's late day sell off, which did not occur on any material adverse news, is very likely related to the ES contract roll. If this is the causal factor, look for ongoing roll-related weakness over the next few days. In the meantime, today's weak US close will continue to pressure both Asia, China and Europe overnight, leading to additional spookage in Treasury auctions in Europe, which already has various unrelated liquidity concerns to deal with.

April consumer credit came in slightly above expectations, at $2,423 billion in April, compared to $2,421.8 billion in March. The March number was interesting as it was revised notably lower from +$2 billion to -$5.4 billion, a revision the likes of which we can probably expect for April once next month's data is released. The April improvement was entirely due to non-revolving consumer credit, as revolving credit declined once again, this time from $835.7 to $829.4 billion. Non-revolving credit increased $1,586.1 to $1,593.6 billion. In terms of MoM changes to key credit holders, the bulk of credit increase came at the Pools of Securitized Assets, which increased credit holdings by $3.9 billion, while Commercial Banks reduced the most of their existing consumer credit. Alas, we don't see how the latter is in any way conducive to reflating the economy if the primary source of consumer credit continues to contract lending.

If Ed Thorpe was dead, he would be spinning in his grave. Another day, another FX-risk decoupling. This is the third time in as many day in which the EURJPY has diverged from the ES by a material margin, only to eventually close the gap. Today, it is the EUR crosses that are resilient. The trade is to buy ES and sell EURJPY, sit the Cristal and wait for the spread to close, taking pennies from the dimwitted 286s out there.

The first two bids in the Glide Foundation's annual Warren Buffett lunch at Smith & Wollensky are in. Both are barely enough to cover the minimum bid of $25,000. Of course, even that price is ridiculous, as this is a totally useless way to spend a day in which the Oracle says nothing of substance, regurgitates a few anecdotes about Benjamin Graham, and discusses the latest shade of red in Becky Quick's lipstick. Alternatively, it would be amusing if Zero Hedge readers can raise the required several hundred thousand (after Warren's numerous highly hypocritical appearances, the last of which under subpoena, this year, we doubt last year's $1.68 million paid by Courtenay Wolfe of Salida Capital will be matched) so that Zero Hedge can send a representative and actually ask Mr. Buffett the tough questions that he has managed to avoid for the entire second half of his multi-billionaire life, even better that no subpoena would be required. Alternatively, for those whose greatest desire in life is to hang out with the octogenarian, they can find the E-bay auction at this link.

As an increasing number of analysts evaluate the impact of Europe's rolling defaults and failed auctions on Europe's liquidity and particularly its shadow liquidity system, best seen in rising European Commercial Paper rates, is it about time to take a look at our own back yard. According to the Federal Reserve there is $673 billion in Commercial Paper maturing in the next 6 weeks alone, of which the bulk, Non-ABL Tier 1 CP amounts to $328 billion, ABL CP totals $292 billion, and Non-ABL Tier 2 CP totals $34 billion. What is concerning is that just like in Europe, rates here in the US for the various tranches of Commercial Paper have started rising. And as this is arguably one of the biggest components of the US shadow liquidity system, it bears close watching, especially if spreads continue leaking wider as they have recently. One thing to keep in mind: the Fed' CPFF emergency facility has now been retired, and any hitch in the CP market will necessitate another brand new involvement in broad liquidity provisioning by the Fed. Then again, just as in the Central Bank liquidity swap case, which was reactivated on a moment's notice, we don't see any problem with the Fed announcing the CPFF program going live with no notice.

Well, glad that is resolved. Now on to fixing it, which alas would mean killing a few hundred billion in annual revenue streams for the parasitic "liquidity providers" (a role they promptly abdicate when the market tends to drop just a little more than they are comfortable with; otherwise yes, the liquidity in Citi, FNM and FRE, as well as AAPL and GOOG options is phenomenal) and which also tend to double as systemic catastrophe factors. Look for many more appearances of "cash cows" on assorted status quo-defensive media venues, as they mount their last defense to preserve a way of life that does nothing to encourage investing within America's increasing skeptical of the capital markets population. From Reuters: "Regulators probing the mysterious May 6 "flash crash" in the stock market are unlikely to find a single cause, though the widespread use of high-speed algorithmic trading was in general likely behind it, the head of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority said on Monday. "We won't stop until we finish the analysis. But I think the answer is there is unlikely to be a single cause," Finra CEO Rick Ketchum told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference here. "It is much more likely to be a proliferation of algorithmic trading that was all subject to the same triggers and didn't have the same controls."

One of the once again widely accepted market certainties is that the economy has now openly reentered a deflationary phase. Nothing surprising here, and it is consistent with huge demand for UST paper, as every incremental auction demonstrates, an outcome that will eventually confirm yet again that credit is leaps and bounds ahead of stocks (today's most recent record of gold priced in Euros is not an indication of inflation or deflation, but merely of mistrust in paper - a totally separate dynamic). Yet, as always, the market is not efficient, and does not exist in its own vacuum - every analysis about market trends has to include at the very top, anassessment of what the Fed will and will not do. And the Fed is fully determined to inflate the economy by any means necessary: the debt maturity cliff in CRE, in Financials, and even in the LBO HY names, is rapidly approaching (yes, that long REIT trade may soon be in jeopardy if nothing is done to "fix" the first issue). Therefore Bernanke has T minus 2 years and counting to pull an ink-stained rabbit out of his monetary printer. The problem, as David Rosenberg points out in his letter from today, is that due to the short maturity profile of government paper, an all out attempt to reflate will certainly lead to that most expected black swan of all - a failed bond auction, absent fully-blown debt monetization. It would also have various other unpleasant side effects, such as a complete eventual collapse of the economy, which is the second backstop reason why gold will likely continue going higher, despite numerous risky-asset liquidation episodes still to come.

We get a glimpse into the latest leading unemployment indicators courtesy of Fox Biz' which notifies that Morgan Stanley in addition to previously reported job cuts, will also be shutting another 300 branch offices and cutting as many as 1,200 jobs over the next year in an attempt to reduce overhead. The primary reason for this: "there has been a significant slowdown in small investors turning to brokers to execute orders; many investors are sitting on cash because they are fearful of the recent volatility in the markets. Because of the declining retail order flow, every major brokerage firm will have to cut staff, Morgan even more so because of the overlap from the Smith Barney acquisition." Apparently promises by the SEC and the quant/HFT community that the May 6 crash will never, ever repeat again are insufficient to placate the investing population which is now justifiably turning its back on equity investments, as seen by last week's massive ongoing outflow from domestic equity mutual funds. Absent Obama making another March 2009-like appearance discussing attractive "profit and earnings ratios", we don't see a material catalyst to change risk perceptions.