Archive - Jul 29, 2010

A disorderly unwinding of China’s credit and property bubble may well be the principal global macro risk today. While
all eyes are on Europe, it would certainly have the potential to catch investors by surprise. But such an unwinding is not
necessary to have a noticeable impact on its largest supplier. In macro, what happens at the margin matters most. Many
argue that a slowing of Chinese GDP growth from 12% toward 8% still represents an exceptional growth rate for the
world’s second largest economy. We suggest that investors focus instead on the 33% decline in the rate of growth, which
will have a comparable effect on China’s demand for (Australian) commodities. Any significant reduction in said demand
could easily provide Australia’s property bubble with a Chinese Pin. Then again, bubbles of this magnitude often collapse
under their own weight as gravity pulls valuations back to earth over time...Today, the consensus remains whole-heartedly in the bullish commodity camp based primarily on China’s insatiable and uninterrupted appetite for resources. We have invested considerable time
exploring cheap hedges to profi t from a speed bump in Chinese demand and another deflating property bubble (or two). While we remain constructive on the long term prospects for commodities and other real assets, buying a little insurance in the face of near term cyclical risks seems like the prudent thing to do, particularly since market participants have again
forgotten that prices are capable of moving in a direction other then up.

It has been a while since political bickering over who can piss the farthest was an issue of global concern. Today, China communist party's mouthpiece People's Daily has released an essay in which the country once again resorts to thinly veiled threats against the US, and demands that not only the country's territorial demands in the South China Sea be uncontested, but that the US accept China as a global power , as the alternative could promptly generate the appearance of rocky relations between the two countries and "no one would like to see the negative effects rocky relations would bring to China, the United States and possibly to the world as a whole." Of course, with China the world's biggest creditor nation, and holder of anywhere between $800 billion and $1.2 trillion (assuming all that London flotsam is really Chinese stealth accumulation), Beijing can rest assured the essay has been duly noted. Of course, with the administration doing one wrong thing after another, it would not be at all surprising if the president's advisory henchmen seek to push the tenous relationship as far as it can go, and truly test the decoupling (this time it IS different, Jim O'Neill said so) hypothesis, however with nothing but downside if decoupling is finally proven true (breathholding not advised).

The FT reports that an intimate group of 12 banks has been contacted by ISDA to begin preliminary contingency plans in anticipation of a European country leaving the euro. Don't panic: just because banks are mobilizing it simply means that there is no chance of Greece, er, any country ever getting kicked out of Europe, as this would be predicated by a sovereign bankruptcy. And the stress test even refused to consider that alternative, which once again confirms that the stress test is completely right and watertight while ISDA is simply being foolish for not having faith in the Kardinals of Keynesianism. In other news, the market will only go up always, faster, forever.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 29/07/10

Someone stubbornly refuses to give the European interbank lending market the memo that all European banks are all fine and dandy now. Either that, or the EUR short covering squeeze which has taken the EURUSD all the way to 1.306 this morning, continues in full force as European banks continue experiencing a shortage of euros as Zero Hedge discussed several times previously, snarling up money markets worse than at any time in 2010.

In an advance reminder that the National Lampoon's European Austerity Vacation Tour is coming to an end, and with it come back pestilence, plauge, locusts, flash crashes and 24/7 cripping strikes, the Greek government has just issued a war-time emergency decree which forces striking truck drivers of fuel-tankers to get back to work or face criminal charges and up to five
years of jail time (such an order issued to striking US unions would likely lead to civil war almost overnight). In other words, the Greek austerity plan is working so well, the country now finds itself resorting to wartime measures. As Market News reports, "The drivers had been on strike for three days through Wednesday,
protesting a government effort to open up their profession, which is
part of the austerity package agreed by Greece in exchange for up to
E100 billion in loans from the Eurozone and the IMF. About 70% of gas station owners say they have run out of supplies,
while shortages of food and other goods have also been reported,
affecting tourism at peak season." Amusingly the Greek economy resumes its collapse despite the ever louder lies by one version of G-Pap or another that the country's economy is now stronger than ever. Odd then how this works with increasing numbers of striking people: perhaps Greece should fire everyone and see its GDP shoot up by 100%? Even funnier, the emergency act coincides with the arrival of the so-called
"troika" officials from the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF,
who have been inspecting the Greek economy since Monday and will
continue doing so for the next seven days - we hope they filled up their gas tanks in advance of their goal seeked tour. Obviously, the three stooges will find nothing wrong with Greece, and over the mortar fire in the background, will say G-Pap is doing so well he deserves another cool trillion from the US taxpayers. In other news, the fraud circus must go on.

For FX Concepts, this is a big day and a very scary one as well. Because our market view is now very precise, but at odds with the accepted wisdom, we are putting ourselves out on a limb. The euro is going to be hit again and commodity currencies will come under increasing pressure. Our cyclical analysis argues that the currency markets are making a major reversal right now, today, and that this will be at least a medium term reversal in equities and credit as well. Although it is more likely that the equity and credit markets will not begin their major decline until the last week of August, the odds favor an unimpressive month ahead which means that we are at the end of the exciting part of the rally of the past two months. By the end of next month, equities will be headed lower, credit spreads will widen sharply, and government bonds will begin a rally to new all time highs. Our completely technical cyclical work implies that there will be a return to dark times in September and October, with a sharp decline driven by liquidity and solvency issues likely to set the world back on a recessionary course. - John Taylor, FX Concepts