Archive - Jul 30, 2010

Tyler Durden's picture

Nomura Sees Fed Issuing QE-Lite Statement On August 10





Just because "extended" and "exceptional" is so H1, 2010. With three brand new doves on the board of the Fed, it was only a matter of time before the printers realized that there is no reason why ZIRP should hold the central bank back, now that even hotdog vendors know all about the deleveraging double dip the US finds itself in. Up on deck we Nomura, which issued the first official change in a call for QE-Light. The firm's economists David Ressler and Zach Pandl, no doubt after consulting with Richard Koo, say, "we now expect the FOMC to 'ease' at the 10 August meeting. Exactly what form this easing might take is debatable. Our assumption is that they will change the language of the statement to signal that the balance sheet will remain expanded, and change policy around the MBS program to start reinvesting paydowns." It won't be the last. Should the Fed telegraph further easing, expect stocks to surge at least another 10% as the 10Y approaches 2.5% as nothing makes sense any more.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Weekly Commitment Of Traders Summary: July 30





This week's CFTC's Commitment of Traders update for key commodity classes

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Bull/Bear Weekly Recap





A concise and objective summary of the week's bullish and bearish events

 

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Are Treasuries the Last Diversifier Left?





In the first quarter, the US economy grew by 3.7%, revised up from an originally reported 2.7% increase. But growth estimates all the way back to the start of 2007 were revised lower. Moreover, the level of real GDP in Q1 was revised down by $100 billion. Does this mean the secular bull market in bonds will continue? And are Treasuries the "last diversifier left"?

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 30/07/10





RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 30/07/10

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Market Breaks As Stocks Explode To Celebrate Sub 2.9% 10 Year





The capital markets, which are celebrating accelerating deflation and inflation at the same time, are now officially insane, as the Dow has diverged from its credit implied fair value by about 170 points! This will all end in lots and lots of tears. We hope the computers enjoy trading with each other as much as all carbon based lifeforms relinquish the en masse abandonment of the stock market.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Naked Cramer - Annotation Day Four





Geoffrey Raymond's art, just like fine wine, only gets better with time. This is particularly true if the art is subjected to accelerated aging via repeated days of annotations. Raymond's latest piece: the Naked Cramer, is now on its day four of soliciting random and assorted commentary, and the prevailing sentiment on CNBC's permabullish stockpicker is certainly starting to shine through. The results are below.

 

Vitaliy Katsenelson's picture

Japan: Land of the Rising Debt





The Japanese economy operates on the assumption, soon to be proved false, that the government will always be able to borrow at low interest rates. As internal demand evaporates, the government will have to start hawking its debt outside Japan — in a more realistic world, where interest rates are a lot higher.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Banks In Ninth District Blame Unwillingness To Lend On Obama Policies





The latest and most damning confirmation that it is none other than the president and his errant policies that are the primary cause for the credit crunch spreading among individuals and small and medium businesses like a paperborne version of the plague, comes direct from the Minneapolis Fed, where in a paper titled "Come and get it--please: Banks and credit unions say they have money to lend, but credit markets are still struggling for a variety of reasons" the Ninth Fed district puts the blame for the credit freeze flatly where it belongs: the president himself, and more specifically his destructive economic advisors. "The most-cited reasons—though only by a small margin—were
organizational uncertainty about future financial system reforms and
regulatory restrictions on bank lending. A Minnesota institution stated
flatly, “The regulatory environment has impacted our willingness to
make loans.
” And stunningly enough, the desire by an ever-greater portion of Americans to forgo future credit and to splurge on idiotic purchases like iPods even as they no longer pay their mortgage and destroy their credit rating is having repercussions. "Said a South Dakota institution, 'We have money to lend, but cannot
always fund applicants due to inability to borrow. Their poor credit
histories keep them from obtaining credit.'" Who would have thunk that while Wall Street is immune from the causal relationship between action and reaction, and in fact blowing itself (and being rescued by taxpayers) up leads to infinite creditability by the US government, the opposite is absolutely not true, as Americans are now less able than ever to procure loans from these very same bailed out banks

 

Vitaliy Katsenelson's picture

On BNN: Range-Bound Markets, eBay, Pfizer, Vodafone





Ultimately markets will move sideways long-term.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Sprott's John Embry "Gold Is On The Cusp Of A Parabolic Move Up"





Today, the FT provided some additional information on the BIS' "goldgate" as relates to its 346 tonnes of gold disclosed as swapped recently by the ubercentral bank. As the FT says, "Investors have bought physical gold in record amounts during the past two years and deposited it in commercial banks. European financial institutions are awash with bullion and some are trying to pledge gold as a guarantee." There was nothing necessarily new in the article, and as expected the swap was merely put in place to collateralize a dollar funding crunch ahead of the European insolvency, allegedly resolved by the guaranteeing of $1 trillion in the world biggest bail out fund by the IMF and the ECB. Nonetheless, at least now we can end speculating as to who benefited: it was not entire countries that had pledged their gold reserves to the ECB (contrary to the rumor that Portugal had given Bernanke a lien on its gold), but merely ten banks, of which HSBC, Société Générale and BNP Paribas were the biggest. While HSBC's presence is somewhat surprising, the latter two banks having found themselves in a massive currency crunch makes sense: as Zero Hedge had previously noted, this is confirmation that it was precisely the French banks that had found themselves on the wrong side of some major euro trades (one need only to recall BNP's call for subparity in the EURUSD from a month ago). Yet what is without doubt is that physical gold will play an increasingly prominent role as a hard collateral asset. In light of this, we present to you the thoughts of Sprott's John Embry on the precious metal, titled "Gold's on the cusp of parabolic move up" whose conclusion fits with the implications of the BIS action: "Central banks can no longer supply the amount needed to balance supply and demand while mine production continues to stagnate at best. It is imperative that investors ignore the volatility created by the anti-gold cartel and use every opportunity that is created by them to purchase more physical gold." Yes John is conflicted, and yes, he has said comparable things in the past... maybe, as more and more piece of the puzzle come into place, this time he will finally be right?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Ten Things That Would Turn Rosie Bullish, And A Realistic Read On Today's GDP Data





One of the world's most realistic people (which for some reason the permabulls take as an indication of extreme bearishness: which is fine - after all they themselves live in an imaginary world populated with market marking unicorns and benign computer programs), David Rosenberg has shared ten things that would make him bullish. Alas reading through these gives one the impression that Hades would first turn endothermic before any of these actually were to come true. And for some more practical views from Rosie, we also include his spot on interpretation of today's GDP data.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - 30/07/10





RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - 30/07/10

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Decoupling Is Back After Plunging 10 Year Yields Reflect 10 Point ES Disconnect





Yesterday may go down in the history books for being the only day in months in which the daily decoupling, either between risk and FX, or risk and Bonds did not occur. Alas, today the binary market hijacking mutants are back to their signal chasing momentum ploys, as a result despite the 10 year about to plunge below 2.90, stocks are flat. As either stocks are rich (no question there) or bonds are (yields are low), the intraday recoupling surefire trade is back, and promises to pay a few nickels to those willing to short stocks and short the 10 year (and pray there is no steamroller in the vicinity).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Mike Krieger Discusses Politics, Economics, And Gold On Keiser Report





Mike Krieger, who has been a staple poster at Zero Hedge courtesy of his willingness to speak the truth no matter how gory or controversial, was on the Max Keiser show, discussing everything from trivial items such as Goldman Sachs movie casting, to far more serious issues such as Obama's failed presidency, corporatism, information oligopolies, the overturn of various core fundamental democratic principles, consumer culture, the Federal Reserve, and gold as the one true money standard. As always an objective and highly informative discussion between Mike and Max.

 
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