Archive - Jul 2010

Yet another data point on why the Obama administration and BP are both so concerned about media access to spill areas comes courtesy of this youtube video by jamescfox. In his own words: "Oil and water samples were taken from both the Shores of Grand Isle and from 20 miles out. The preliminary analysis was done at an academic analytical chemistry laboratory. Looking for the likely pollutants from the deep water Horizon Oil spill. It was focused on the detection of benzene and propylene glycol. Benzene and other highly toxic contaminants were very low however the concentration of propylene glycol was between 360 and 440 parts per million. Just 25 parts per million is know to kill most fish and propylene glycol is just one of many ingredients found in Corexit. In short, the Gulf is being poisoned by BP's usage of the dispersants even after the EPA asked them to stop back in May. We are willing to provide ANY respected/known laboratory these samples or provide them with more. This is very serious to all people and marine life in and around the Gulf."

Just like Goldman top ticked the EURUSD trade to within a few hours of the multiyear low of the pair when it issued its downgrade from 1.35 to 1.15, so today's notice that Goldman is now bearish on the dollar should be enough reason for everyone to short the living daylight out of the euro. Amusingly even as the GS Global Market team sees a major slowdown in the US, somehow the rest of the world (BRICs) is supposed to pick up the slack, even as Jim O'Neill himself has now said he expects China to decelerate materially. Also, according to Goldman's "GS Bond Sudoku Model" the fair value on the 10 Year is at 3.1%, "with a very grim macro backdrop needed to justify yields at 2.5% or below." Well if the Sudoku says so... Altogether confusion is rampant, but the only thing that matters is that Goldman is now buying dollars and selling euros.

Details of the latest offering of the 3-10-30s have been released. Between July 12 and 14, the US Treasury will auction off $69 billion of 3, 10 and 30 Year bonds.

• $35 billion in 3 Year Bonds on July 12 (link)
• $21 billion in 10 Year Bonds (reopening) on July 13 (link)
• $13 billion in 30 Year Bonds (reopening) on July 14 (link)

We anticipate there will be no glitches in the take down of this latest total, which amounts to about 33% of the average recent monthly deficit, as "direct bidders" continue to increase their participation. These auction will be promptly followed by another 2,5,7 offering as there are hundreds of billions in budget shortfalls that can only be funded thru endless debt issuance.

For those that care about real freedom, genuine progressive reforms and this Republic in general there are all sorts of things you can do and they are being done all over the place. I actually think this group will fail miserably and ultimately be brought to justice. I simply think too many smart people have woken up to the scam and the entire system will implode on itself. So as I have written before the key is NOT to be consumed by fear but rather to take action. Get your finances in order with gold and silver and other real assets but also get mentally and emotionally prepared. This is because if you are not in a position to help your neighbors then you are no good to anyone. This will not be about hunkering down in a bunker and emerging rich once the dust settles. It is about staying intact financially and emotionally so that you can help rebuild a better nation when the current world paradigm comes to an end which should happen swiftly within the next 1-2 years. Most importantly do not look for leaders to save anything or anyone. It not about looking outside it’s about looking inside as Gandhi said. If we become the change we want to see in the world the world will change. Messianic leaders are a myth and meant to control you and stop you from personal action and independent thought. Thinking a new leader will change the world just gives you an excuse to be lazy.

- Mike Krieger

The irrational exuberance of the last 24 hours has evaporated following the Meredith Whitney downgrade of Goldman 2010 EPS, but mostly after reports that some European banks are so busted they managed to fail an exquisitely doctored test designed so that no banks would fail. The market is once again wondering if someone can fail this farce, what would the test of reality look like? The result: the traditional carry-risk correlation has once again recoupled and with countless such occurrences continues to be the most routinely profitable intraday trade available.
The irrational exuberance of the last 24 hours has evaporated following reports that some European banks are so busted to fail an exquisitely doctored test designed so that no banks would fail. The market is once again wondering if someone can fail this farce, what would reality look like? The result: the traditional carry-risk correlation has once again recoupled and with countless such occurrences continues to be the most routinely profitable intraday trade available.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 08/07/10

Just a rumor for now. On the other hand, it conforms precisely to Credit Suisse's earlier announcement that Post Bank, in addition to Greek ATE, Piraeus, Helenic Postbank NBG would fail the Stress tests. (more to come).

Some interesting developments in the mutual fund arena, where a trailblazer, the Appleseed Fund, has announced that beginning July 1 it will no longer invest in Too Big To Fail banks: "Given the failure of regulators to prevent the previous credit crisis
and the subsequent failure of legislators to break up the massive and
very much interconnected banks that helped to create the crisis, it is
incumbent on depositors and investors to vote with their wallets. Until
the financial system is truly restructured, the Appleseed Fund will
avoid investments in too-big-to-fail banks, choosing instead to invest
in regional banks, community banks, and credit unions which lend money
to families and businesses that operate in the productive sectors of our
economy."

Nat gas is in freefall after the EIA reported a much larger than expected build up in natgas inventories: the Energy Information Administration reported an increase by 78 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 2. Expectations were for a 70 bcf increase, while the last week reading was at 60 bcf. The result is a freefall in the price of nattie which has now plunged 5% for the day, and is back to early June levels. Today's move is sure to result in major adverse P&L at some of the key players in the space.

Today, Freddie Mac announced that the 30 Year FRM declined to a new all time record low, dropping by 1 bp to 4.57% from the week before. Yet even as mortgage rates hit fresh weekly records courtesy of the Fed's undisputed control of the mortgage market, the only thing increasingly more certain is that even at 0.00% there is precious little marginal demand in the primary market for housing. Here are the latest observations from Rosie on precisely this phenomenon, and much more.

The IMF has issued a less than stellar outlook of the US economy after consultations with US government authorities, in which it cautions that even as the outlook has generally improved, major downside risks remain: "On the downside, the backlog of foreclosures and high levels of negative equity, combined with elevated unemployment, pose risks of a double dip in housing; the continued deterioration in commercial real estate poses risks for smaller banks; and financing conditions remain tight, especially for smaller firms reliant on bank finance. Most recently, and tipping the balance of risks to the downside, sovereign strains in Europe have become an increasing concern, potentially impacting the United States through financial market and, in a tail risk scenario, trade links." Also notable is the fund's warning on the state of the US consumer and the perceived overvaluation of the dollar: "It follows, as also emphasized in last year’s Article IV, that the United States can no longer play the role of global consumer of last resort, underscoring the importance of measures to boost growth and demand in current account surplus countries. With the U.S. dollar now moderately overvalued from a medium term perspective, this will need to be accompanied by greater exchange rate flexibility/appreciation elsewhere."

All of a sudden, the world wants to buy this company while there is blood in the street and oil on the water. Sovereign buyers from China to Singapore to Saudi Arabia have been lining up. That well known value stock player, Libya, is in play. Cap that sucker, and the next stop is $40 or more.

A highly amusing exchange occurred earlier on CNBC when guest Damon Vickers of Nine Points Capital had an unexpected moment of truthiness and turned some heads when he said that "unless the plunge protection team comes in over the next couple of days, the markets are looking very dicey here." When a disgusted Joe Kernan asks if Vickers was making a joke about the PPT, the response is "absolutely not - it's common knowledge that the government steps in and does things to step on the gas and buy stock here and there." To which Byron Wien has a strong retort: "I don't believe it." All that and much more in the clip below. In the meantime, the market is sure having a field day with stocks as once again bad news are discarded and the smallest glimmer of positivity serves as a springboard for yet another ramping short covering spree.

The Baltic Dry, which contrary to what some may claim, actually is one of the best leading indicators on global trade and thus the health of the economy, continues to plunge, and is now below 2000, hitting fresh 14 month lows, at 1940. It is now at the levels last seen during the March 2009 "generational" low, and just after the Lehman bankruptcy. Yet futures are up as initial claims beat expectations by 6,000 very statistically relevant people.

Bullion dealers provide liquidity for clients seeking to add or subtract risk from their own portfolios. They operate as brokers, advisors, and counterparties to their clients at various times during dealings. For our example today, we are focusing on the counterparty aspect of a dealer/ client relationship.