Archive - Jul 2010

Tyler Durden's picture

Biggest Monthly Pending Home Sales Drop On Record As ISM Manufacturing Index Misses Big





Another big leg down into the recognition that i) the recession was really a depression all along and ii) we are smack back in it. The ISM Manufacturing index came at 56.2 on expectations of 59, previous was 59.7. And the stunner - the prices paid index came in at 57 on expectations of 70, with a previous read of 77.5. The crash in margins will be surreal and companies will have no choice but to raise prices. And just so there are no mistakes that the Great Depression 2.0 is here, pending homes sales plunged a massive 30% on expectations of -14.2, and a previous read of 6%. This was the biggest MoM drop on record. Deflation is here, as is a full blown economic contraction, coupled with the complete pull out of the US consumer, who, absent government subsidies, will contain purchases solely to the iPad. Ben Bernanke has no choice but to print money now, or it is game over.

 

madhedgefundtrader's picture

Going Back into the Ags





The charts for almost all ag products, like corn, wheat, and soybeans, are making potential one year double bottoms. Bad weather is now threatening in Canada. The world is both eating more food, and more calorie intensive foods, like beef and pork, thanks to rising emerging market standards of living. A further boost from the Yuan revaluation. The new family of ag ETF’s will be a game changer. (CORN), (CANE), (WEAT), (SOYB).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: The Weekly Peak





Updated weekly perspectives from Peak Theories Research

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 1





  • Must watch: "A gigantic ponzi scheme, lies and fraud" - Howard
    Davidowitz on Wall Street (TechTicker)
  • The fanatics turn on their guru: Apple sued over new iPhone reception problems by consumers (Bloomberg)
  • Shocker - Fed acquired shit assets from failing banks and completely misrepresented these under oath. (Bloomberg)... Um, we kinda warned about this in October of last year.
  • BP oil spill cleanup work hampered by hurricane (Reuters)
  • More theatrics from AIG's Benmosche who threatens to quit unless Harvey Golub quits (Bloomberg)
  • Jim Willie - Path to gold backed currency (Market Oracle, h/t John)
  • The stimulus is now over - global manufacturing slowdown shows weakening from China to Europe (Bloomberg)
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Double Dip Picking Up: Jobless Claims Spike To 472,000, On Expectations Of 455,000





Jobless claims were a disaster, coming in at 472k, on expectations of 455k. Prior was revised, surprise, surprise, higher to 459k from 457k. What is scariest is that between extended benefits and EUC, now that Congress has turned off the perpetual insurance spigot for the unemployed, dropped by -158,155 and -217,513. This is almost half a million people who just lost their weekly governmental stipend to buy Apple's latest app, iTimberrr. Full report here. RIP Recovery: the economy has now entered the "total freefall" area. And in the meantime, the 2.90% on the 10 year is now implying the FV of the S&P just dropped by another 8 points to about 740. And as a reminder, Goldman's NFP expectation for tomorrow is -100,000.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Libor-OIS Surges After ECB's €111 Billion 6 Day Operation Indicates Nothing Is Fixed, ECB Deposit Facility Usage Spiking





After yesterday's €132 billion euro 90 day LTRO seemed to indicate that all is well for European banks and that up to €310 billion of liquidity could be withdrawn, today's stunningly bad result in the follow up 6 Day liquidity providing fine tuning operation, in which another 78 banks bid for €111.2 billion worth of reverse repo cash, at the same rate as yesterday's 90 Day, or 1%, indicated that all is, after all, bad for European banks, who further more can't seem to realize that when given the opportunity to luck up funds for 90 days versus 6 days, you always go for the former. In other words, the liquidity crunch in Europe is just as bad as everyone had feared.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Highlights: 7.1.10





  • BOJ Tankan key sentiment index better than expected - first time in two years.
  • China’s manf index declined for a second month, falling to 52.1 from 53.9 in May.
  • China's stock index declines for seventh day; Commodity producers retreat.
  • Disappointing Chinese economic data send stocks lower across Asia.
  • German retail sales down 2.4% in May on year.
  • OPEC crude output fell in June from a 17-month high, Bloomberg Survey says.
  • Retail sales growth in Australia weakened in May, Building approvals drop.
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Another Deteriorating Spanish Auction, Another Moody's Downgrade, More German Dissent, More Failed Banks





By this point only ECB commissioners can not see the death spiral that Europe is currently in. Earlier today, Spain issued €3.5 billion in 5 year bonds with terms markedly worse than even the most recent prior auction. The yield came in at 3.657%, up from 3.532% previously, with a dramatic slide in the Bid To Cover, which plunged from 2.35 in May to just 1.7. And to guarantee that the next bond auction will barely clear 1.0 is Moody's, which just downgraded 5 Spanish regions, Castilla-y-Leon, Extremadura, Madrid and Murcia to Aa2 from Aa1 and
Castilla-La-Mancha to Aa3 from Aa2. This is even as the rater is about to cut Spain by about 3-5 notches to the single A category if not lower. Elsewhere, Germany once again threw Europe into a general state of discord by announcing that it does supports banks' refusal of full stress test releases. As Market News reports, "Bundesbank President Axel Weber is supporting German
banks in their opposition of a complete and uncontrolled disclosure of
stress tests, German business daily Financial Times Deutschland (FTD)
reported Thursday citing sources. Weber promoted the partial release of stress test results. Yet, he
opposed the plan to let the European association of financial
supervisors CEBS decide alone how much of the stress tests will be
released, FTD said." This is in stark contrast with the Geithner approach of complete doctoring and fudging of even the stress test framework, to make sure no banks ever fail the stress tests. Once again Germany is showing Tiny Tim the middle finger.

 

Reggie Middleton's picture

The Conundrum of Commercial Real Estate Stocks: In a CRE “Near Depression”, Why Are REIT Shares Still So High and Which Ones to Short?





Many people have asked me how SRS and REITs share prices can defy gravity the way they have given the abysmal state of commercial real estate (CRE). Well my opinion is that the equity and the debt markets have allowed agent and principal manipulation to the extent that it materially distorts and interferes with the market pricing mechanism.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 01/07/10





RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 01/07/10

 
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