Archive - Aug 13, 2010

• Asian stocks rebound from 3-week low on earnings growth; Yen weakens.
• China shares up due to easy-credit policy hopes.
• French GDP rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in Q2 from the previous three months.
• Germany’s GDP grows 3.7% in Q2 - fastest pace since its reunification.
• Massive German growth helps eurozone expand by 1% in 2Q.
• Oil rises above $76 in Asia; bounces back from week's losses.
• Retail Sales in US probably rose in July for first time in three months.
• US car dealership count fell to 18,223 after 258 showrooms shut their doors in H1 2010.
• Autodesk's Q2 EPS at $0.36 (cons $0.27); revs rose 14% to $473M (cons $458.9M).
• Airport operator BAA and Unite union hold talks to prevent strike.
• BP to pay a $50.6M fine for failing to fix safety hazards at its Texas oil refinery.
• Brazil controls mean Petrobras can't turn oil price surge into profit gain.

One of the classic comedy themes of the year has been Goldman's series of failed recommendations on the EURUSD, where the hedge fund has had about a 1 out of 10 "success" rating (for its clients). Today, the Markets Strategist Mark Tan recaps the firm's 3, 6 and 12 month forecast on the EURUSD, which are, conveniently, 1.22, 1.35 and 1.38. That's like saying the S&P will be in a range of 950 to 1500. At least the firm is sure to "hit" its projected range.... And be sure to watch that major inflection point some time in December which send the dollar sharply lower: is Goldman implicitly saying the "real deal" QE will now come around New Year's, just after the elections and just before the government has to raise the debt ceiling regardless? One thing we agree with, as we have long claimed: look for strikes and other expressions of non-appreciation to spike once everyone is back from vacation. As Goldman says: "One of the main reasons we incorporated downside risks to our EUR/$ forecast (1.22 in 3-months) is to reflect the potential for rising political tension again. This could potentially occur as Europe returns from its summer lull and is confronted with the reality of unpopular austerity measures." What are the InTrade odds on CNBC broadcasting the next storming of the Greek parliament?

Second-quarter GDP in Greece estimated to have fallen by 3.5% year-on-year. I'd like to bring to your attention that this is a pace that is over 11.5x WORSE than the projections that Greece used to get the austerity package-based bailout!!! It is also much more in line with what we anticipated at the research group of BoomBustBlog. Anybody want dibs on whether we are also more accurate about the point of Greece's restructuring causing a contagion effect?

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 13/08/10

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Until I began to examine the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul bill I had no idea that it would so significantly change the direction of the United States. It's scope is so vast and pervasive that it is difficult to grasp its totality. I wrote this article to try to explain this and why I believe it is so important for us to understand it. Because of its complexity it was not possible to do this briefly, so I wrote this major "white paper" and divided it into four parts to make it easier to digest. Please stick with me for the next few days; your eyes will be opened. This is Part 2.