Archive - Aug 16, 2010

Deflation talk has the markets spooked during these last couple weeks. Since Bullard's comments (preparing the ground for QE2) and Bernanke's promises to combat deflation through treasury purchases, even the CNBC talking heads are discussing it. Editor's Contrarian note: Probably time to consider unwinding your bond longs if T.V.'s equivalent of your shoe shine boy is telling you deflation is coming. In deflation, Gold should be the tallest pygmy. Even If it drops 40% in a deflationary depression, it will still stand tall among the financial wreckage that is defaulted debt and worthless equity. But, if the Fed succeeds in combating this event (preemptively or after the fact), Hyperinflation becomes a high risk and we know what that portends for fiat currency.

The Empire State Mfg index rose modestly from 5.08 to 7.1, yet still missed expectations of 8.0. In a nutshell, price indexes fall, the employment indexes climb, and most critically, as this is a survey after all, the degree of optimism continues to weaken.

• China Overtakes Japan as World's Second-Biggest Economy (Bloomberg)
• US banks get securities buy-back window - $118bn of high-cost ‘Trups’ can be redeemed over 90 days (FT)
• Yield Curve as Harbinger (WSJ)
• It Takes a Tea Party to Start a Tax Revolution (Bloomberg)
• Evans-Pritchard: Ireland can withstand the euro's ordeal by fire, but can Southern Europe? (Telegraph)
• Workers Let Go by China’s Banks Putting Up Fight (NYT)
• Goldman Undercuts Rivals in GM IPO as It Loses Top Role (Bloomberg)
• Is This Normal? The uncertainty of our economic uncertainty (NYMag)
• Mark Zandi oped: The Tax Cut We Can Afford (NYT)

• China favors Euro over Dollar as Bernanke alters path.
• China's stocks rally on economic outlook, led by shippers, energy shares.
• Crude oil trades near a one-month low after Japan's economic growth slows.
• HK govt tightened mortgage lending rules, to increase supply of land to help cool prices.
• Japan economy surpassed by China as GDP is less than estimated.
• Japanese economy slows unexpectedly; annualised growth for quarter only 0.4%.
• Wheat futures advance, erasing losses, as Russia lowers harvest estimate by 38%.

It's starting again. Japan 10 year JGBs just dropped to fresh 7 year lows of 0.95%, as UST 10 years are down at 16 month lows of 2.65% and German 30 Year yields are down to record lows of 3.09%. Maybe the Fed should just let deflation run its course to get ever closer to the target UST curve which we noted before. And while Japan is ravaged by a fresh bout of deflation, Europe is starting to crumble once again now that (lack of) vacations are generally over: the Greek/Bund spread has just hit the widest level since May 10, at 811 bps, while the Irish/German spread is at its widest ever of 303 bps, a move of 10 bps on the day. European weakness is resuming now that CPI came in at expectations (as opposed to beating them as has been the tradition for the past month) at 1.7%. The export-driven golden age, as we noted, is over. Elsewhere, the Telegraph posted rumors that the BoE is preparing to join the Fed and is about to commence a fresh round of QE as a new wave of global monetary easing is about to hit.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 16/08/10

The tide is suddenly heading out to sea for aspiring hedge fund traders. A torrent of talent pouring into the marketplace fleeing the onerous restrictions of FinReg. Hedge funds, have crimped new hiring, their own modest first half returns keeping new investors at bay. Could we be setting up for a bonus draught like the one we saw in 2008?