Archive - Aug 2010

One of the key tenets of Reg NMS (which has always been the cherry on top of a long process that began with a bunch of Wall Street banks and quants bribing regulators and politicians to first roofie stocks, and subsequently culminating with the gang rape by pimply 18 year old math Ph.D.'s of the entire stock market) is the "sanctity" of the NBBO: whatever happens, whatever insanity prevails in the market, buyers would always be prohibited from crossing the best offer, and sellers - the best bid (incidentally, there are exclusions to the rule but they occur only in options paired strategies). Which is why we read with great (lack of) surprise the latest piece by Nanex (recently famous for their dramatic quote-stuffing "crop circles" which day after day exposes the thieving douchebaggery of the HFT community for all to see, not to mention the criminal complicity of the SEC), that puts the very validity and credibility of the most fundamental concept of the stock market into question. In brief - Nanex concludes, and we certainly agree with them based on the presented evidence, that " the NBBO system cannot be relied upon and is meaningless."

As we enter the last hour of trading, the daily late trading divergence we have grown to love and expect every single day in this broken market, is back. Using an FX basis for funding mismatches, the ES is about 10 points rich to "fair value." Should this spread close, it will indicate that FX is still at least a marginal player in determining stock levels, as opposed to putting full weight on the previously discussed butterfly (2s10s30s). Keep and eye, and in the meantime putting on a convergence trade would seem sensible.

Andy Xie follows up on his earlier Op-Ed that describes how the Fed is implicitly funding the stimulus in places like China. In a simplified version of the article, he talks to Bloomberg's Betty Liu, recapping the key issues."When the Fed prints money it is just creating inflation in emerging economies. But when the inflation in the EM gets high enough, it will bounce back, it will become inflation in the US." As to why EM countries would be unable to manage their inflation, Xie says that most emerging economies are focused more on holding down their currencies, as they see "global demand as relatively weak", seeking more than anything to keep their exports competitive. "That force is allowing them to allow all the money to come in and become inflation." And unfortunately Andy does not think unemployment is going lower any time soon, attacking the very core of the Fed's dual mandate: "I don't think high unemployment is a panacea for keeping inflation down." Of course, if inflation does strike the EMs, and wage increases are demanded, making the paying field a little more level, it may just be precisely the stimulus that the US needs to get its wage structure marginally more competitive on the global playing field.

Elliot Spar of Stifel Nicolaus provides today's intraday stock market commentary, in a new section which we hope will become a staple to Zero Hedge.

Reader Mark submits the following list of eight questions to the attention of Tim Geithner, requesting clarification on the "Other Investors" category of bond purchasers in the Z.1, and also seeks several other answers. Mark notes: "In perusing the 2010 Q1 Treasury Bulletin, released June 11, 2010, I am left with many questions concerning the ownership of US Treasuries (Table OFS-2). What follows is a list of specific questions I submit to you on behalf of the American people. Please be advised that your responses (or lack thereof) will be made public." We believe this query deserves broader public scrutiny as it does pose several relevant questions at a time when even the smallest hiccup in rates would throw the Treasury curve out of skew and present big concerns for the funding of the upcoming ~$10 trillion in new bond issuance.

Earlier rumors of a liquidation-based selling have proven to be false, as gold has surged by over $12 from the day's lows to its highest level in months. Elsewhere, the new carry correlation trade confirms it is truly the 2s10s30s butterfly that is the new source of funding for stocks, and for spiking HFT momentum. And the big institutions who have now gamed the latest funding pair, continue to sell into the HFT bid, as stocks rise purely as a side effect of a normalization in the butterfly wings, and never on any actual fundamentals, which as David Rosenberg once again demonstrated earlier, continue to get worse and worse. But remember: GM has to IPO today, and Geithner can't possibly do it on a downtick, let alone a red close. Also, we have another POMO tomorrow as the Fed once again prepares to give a blank check to the PDs to ramp the S&P another 3% higher. All in all, another day in Central Planning.

Those patiently following the Greek Bond-Bund spread to its inevitable conclusion have been fully aware that the plan that Europe is betting its entire future on, is patently flawed: namely that austerity, by its definition does not, and will not work. In fact, instead of bringing stability, austerity will slowly but surely eat away at the economy of whatever country it is instituted in - in some cases slowly, in others, like Greece, very rapidly. Indeed, the Greek spread has now risen to levels last seen during the early May near-revolution in Athens, at well over 800 bps. And for the specific consequences of austerity, Germany's Spiegel has done a terrific summary of what it defines as a "death spiral" for the Mediterranean country: "Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70 percent in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back. A mixture of fear, hopelessness and anger is brewing in Greek society." Spiegel quotes a a typical Greek: ""If you take away my family's bread, I'll take you down -- the government needs to know that. And don't call us anarchists if that happens! We're heads of our families and we're desperate." All those who think violent strikes in the PIIGS are a thing of the past, we have news for you. The (pseudo) vacation season is over, and millions of workers are coming back. They may not have money, but they have lots of free time, lots of unemployment, and even more pent up anger. Things are about to get very heated once again, first in Greece, and soon after, everywhere else.

Paul Farrell knocks it out of the ballpark today: "Yes, it's going to get worse, a whole lot worse ... Bill Gross warns this is the "New Normal. Forget 10% returns. Think 5%". ... Economist Larry Kotlikoff, author of The Coming Generational Storm, warns: "Let's get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending nor taxing will help the country pay its bills" ... Economist Peter Morici warns: "Unemployment is stuck near 10%. Deflation coming. Stock market threatens collapse. The Federal Reserve and Barack Obama are out of bullets. Near zero federal funds rates, central bank purchases, a $1.6 trillion deficit have failed to revive the economy." ... Simon Johnson, co-author of 13 Bankers, warns: "We came close to another Great Depression, next time we may not be so lucky." Why? Because Wall Street's already well into the next bubble/bust cycle -- the "doom cycle."

We are getting a sense why traditionally optimistic and hopeful Americans tend to broadly despise realists...

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 18/08/10

In advance of Druckenmiller's resignation, Duquesne Capital was kind enough to supply an updated 13F with a listing of its $2.4 billion in stock holdings. The top 50 positions are presented below, now that the firm will be actively dumping shares as it enters wind down mode. The top 5 holdings are: Apple, Wells Fargo, McDonalds, JPM and Cisco (the last one must have hurt).

A week ago Goldman raised its price target on gold to $1,300/ounce, an action which judging by the firm's historical record of putting its clients' interest in its rightful last place, led us to be skeptical: "The report will likely result in a brief pop in spot as the idiot money rushes into the latest Goldman trap. Alas, it
also means that GS is now offloading. Be very wary of market dynamics
over the next month." Today we realize our skepticism was perfectly justified: in the latest Perspectives from Goldman Sachs Asset Management (intended FOR BROKER-DEALER, FINANCIAL INSTITUTION, OR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO CLIENTS OR THE GENERAL PUBLIC), in addition to summarizing all the other recent actions presented by the firm's key departments, way in the back, in very small print when discussing commodities, the letter author notes: "Shifted our stance on gold after years of being long; see gold as vulnerable to Central Bank inactivity in the face of rising deflation risk." Once again, those who bet that Goldman does precisely the opposite of what it tells clients to do, win.

One more casualty of the machines carted off the trading floor. "Druckenmiller, 57, said he was tired of the stress of managing money for others and frustrated by his failure in the past three years to match returns that had averaged 30 percent annually since 1986." And retail investors hope to have any chance in this market where the big boys can no longer cut it? Good luck.

Is the real yield for the Japanese yen actually to 4.1%? The yen strength will eventually end, because while gold cannot be created out of thin air, currency can. Expect a massive quantitative easing that sends the printing presses into triple overtime.

Ever wonder why the SEC, FINRA and all other regulators actively continue to ignore the flagrant quote stuffing, frontrunning (yes, Flash trading is still a perfectly accepted practice) and all other destabilizing market activities facilitated and performed daily by High Frequency Trading (when comparable such actions result in jail sentences in Norway)? Hopefully the chart below will explain it...

Markets in a Flash

· The Dollar has started to weaken in the past few hours against other major currencies. China continues to shift the world’s largest FX reserves out of Dollars.

· The USD/JPY is trading very close to its lows, further weakness in the USD may see the pair making new ground.