Archive - Sep 2010
Never was so much said by so few words. Party away like there’s no tomorrow, but keep an eye on the door as usual, and keep snugging up those stops on US equities. Financial stocks are not invited, nor is the US dollar.
The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Canada’s biggest pension fund manager, is going overweight commodities and energy...
Charting Statistical Fraud At The BLS: 22 Out Of 23 Consecutive Upward Revisions In Initial Jobless ClaimsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2010 18:59 -0500
For all those who continue to doubt the statistically quetionable methods of our Labor Department, as well as for all others who mock those who doubt the veracity out of anything coming out of the BLS, the following chart should provide much needed closure. The top section of the chart below demonstrates weekly prior revisions in initial claims for all of 2010. Readers may be surprised to discover that beginning in April, of 2010, continuing through today, there have been 22 out of 23 consecutive upward prior weekly revisions! In other words, the BLS has a definitive mandate to underrepresent the "current" weekly data and to allow it to catch up with reality once it has become "prior", and thus no longer market moving, when in reality should the BLS present true data it would have likely missed estimates on more than half the occasions it has "beaten" and caused ridiculous market spikes like the one experienced earlier. Furthermore, combining all individual weekly data, demonstrates that the BLS has underrepresented initial claims by roughly 80,000 year to date. The chart pretty much leaves no room for doubt as to the BLS "trans-statistical" approach to quantifying data. As for the lower chart, it shows the same thing but with continuing claims, which have been revised upward pretty much consecutively for the entire year.
[VIDEO] Fraud Factories: Rep. Alan Grayson Explains the Foreclosure Fraud Crisis, Shows Examples of Forgeries and FraudSubmitted by 4closureFraud on 09/30/2010 18:39 -0500
This is Rep. Alan Grayson explaining the crisis of foreclosure fraud and how it links to the entire securitization chain of Wall Street.
"Their is one set of rules for the banks and another set of laws for everyone else" More @ 4closureFraud.org
M2 continues its inexorable rise higher, and while by all indications the various shadow components of M3 are declining, the Fed and the banking system sure are doing everything in their power to reflate traditional monetary liabilities. In the week ended September 20, M2 rose to a fresh record of $8,712 trillion, even as M1 has declined marginally in recent weeks. This was the 11th sequential increase in M2, which in 2010 has increased by quarter of a trillion dollars. Yet this increase does nothing to offset the over $2 trillion decline in shadow banking liabilities through Q2 which we have discussed previously.
Leading derivative expert, author and regular contributor at the Econotwist’s, Espen Gaarder Haug, says algorithms have many weaknesses and should be monitored on a daily basis by people with extensive market knowledge and experience. The former Norwegian Wall Street trader have a thing or two to say in relation to the ongoing circus at Oslo District Court – also known as the “robot case.” “Should the major players be allowed to carry on trading algorithm with no monitoring, without people with broad market experience monitoring them?”
Probably the most interesting thing in this week's Fed balance sheet update is that Treasurys held by the Fed are now $812 billion, an increase of $7 billion from the week before, which those who follow the FRBNY's almost daily POMO liquidity explosion know all too well. Indicatively, Japan owns $821 billion and China, $847 billion. We believe that within one week the Fed will surpass Japan as the second largest holder of Treasurys, and China, the currently top holder, in just over a month. Another notable item: Fed excess reserves were at $981 billion, a decline from $1.01 trillion at the beginning of the month, but most notably, in the past month this number hit a year low of $932 billion on September 15. One wonders just what securities the banks were buying up with these reserves? Keep in mind the stock market closed essentially at the level it hit on September 20, making one wonder just how much of a factor the nearly $80 billion decline in bank excess reserves in the first two weeks of the month may have been.
A few days ago, the FDIC, broke as ever, with a Deposit Insurance Fund that was well south of zero at last check, announced, with delightful irony, that it was expanding its insurance on non-interest bearing checking accounts from the current $250,000 to, well, infinity. As in there is no upper limit on how much the FDIC would insure - the fact that it has no money at the FDIC to begin with being completely irrelevant. That's right, the broke FDIC basically said that it would guarantee up to $480 billion currently sitting in US checking accounts between December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2012. Yet is this nothing less than another Volcker-inspired plan to get capital out of multi-trillion money market industry and into consumer hands via easily accessible transaction accounts, and to encourage spending on useless trinkets like iPads? This could very well be the case.
With gold punching the $1,300 mark, thoughts of what a gold mania will be like crossed my mind. If we're right about the future of precious metals, a gold rush of historic proportions lies ahead of us. Have you thought about how a mania might affect you? Not like this, you haven't…
Bloomberg has just released something which if true, will wipe out every last ounce of credibility left in the market. As readers will recall, the initial scapegoat that CNBC and everyone else, who has no clue what really happens in the market decided to pin the flash crash on, was small Kansas-based trading firm Waddell & Reed, which traded a few extra contracts of E-Mini futures in the hours preceding the flash crash. Well, ladies and gentlemen, if this advance glance into what the SEC is about to disclose in its flash crash report is indeed valid, then the entire flash crash is about to be blamed on Waddell and Reed once again, with no mention of High Frequency Trading, or any of the other real culprits for the drop which wiped out $1 trillion in market cap, and the furthermore the report will have no policy recommendations. This is so insulting to the general intelligence of the average American investor who has by now seen the destructive influence of HFT in action so many times, that it will wipe out the last remaining shards of credibility left in US stocks. Will Mary Schapiro next blame every single mini flash crash which we have seen on almost daily basis over the past month on Waddell and Reed as well? Or is that reserved for E-Trade retail accounts? We will not pass judgment until we see the final report, but if true, this is immediate grounds for termination of the SEC head, and will require that everyone pull their money from the market asap, as it will definitely confirm that even our regulators have no clue just how broken the market truly is. It will also confirm that every single SEC staffer has been bribed, bought and corrupted beyond repair by the HFT lobby.
RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 30/09/10
Mexican Central Bank Takes FX Warfare Into The 21st Century: Writes $600 Million Worth Of Dollar OptionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2010 14:59 -0500
The FX war recently launched by every central bank in the world, just entered its modern warfare stage: we have learned that the Mexican Central Bank has just sold $600 million worth of USD options. That's right - the central bank of our southern neighbor has moved beyond merely pedestrian cash interventions and has entered the derivatives game, in their attempt to raise the US peso and lower its Mexican equivalent. While there is no immediate indication of how the NAFTA treaty reacts to such outright open aggression between member states, it will likely be modestly to quite modestly frowned upon by the central banks of Canada, and most certainly, our own Fed. What we would love to find out, however, is who it was that was on the other side of the transaction, and bought $600 million worth of USD options. It would be supremely ironic if it it is discovered that it was the FRBNY that was taking the other side of the trade, as it would confirm that central banks have now gone AIG on betting on the outcome of currency wars.
American consumers do not want the Age of Mammon to end. They will need to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Age of Austerity. Consumer expenditures peaked at $10.2 trillion in the 3rd Quarter of 2008. They reduced spending for two quarters, but when Big Daddy Government handed them billions and told them to spend it on cars, appliances, and homes, they dutifully obeyed. Today, consumer expenditures stand at an all-time high of $10.3 trillion, still accounting for 70.5% of GDP. There really has been no hint of austerity by Americans. It is a false storyline. The major reductions in consumption still loom in the future.
Since the mainstream media has declared a black out on any coverage of the ongoing Mortgage Scandal, here is the latest: Ohio Secretary of State Brunner has sent a criminal referral to the US attorney general over ubiquitous mortgage fraud.
Bernanke's Evil Peruvian Clone Gets Serious About FX Intervention, As Country Shuts Down Border With Revolutionary EcuadorSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2010 13:54 -0500
From the Banco Central de Reserve Del Peru:
13:30 : El Banco Central compró US$ 181 millones a un tipo de cambio promedio S/. 2,7870 por dólar.