Archive - Sep 20, 2010

According to Bloomberg,
for the week ended September 17, corporate insiders bought $1.4MM in
shares in a whopping 7 different companies. This was just marginally offset by sales of $441MM in 98 different companies, a ratio of 290 to 1 of stock notional sold to bought. But wait: this is GREAT NEWS: last week the ratio was 650 to 1! So this is a huge improvement and certainly yet another reason for today's rally, even though last week total notional sold was $332 million, or just under 25% lower, and sellers came in well lower at "just" 72. But who needs details when you have the Fed... Certainly not retail, which has now pulled money out of domestic stock funds for 19 straight weeks. So for those wondering just who is orchestrating today's move higher, please let us know if you find out.

Ray Bradbury wrote his dystopian novel Fahrenheit 451 in 1950. Most kids were required to read this book when they were seventeen years old. Having just re-read the novel at the age of forty-seven makes you realize how little you knew at seventeen. It is 165 pages of keen insights into today’s American society. Bradbury’s hedonistic dark future has come to pass. His worst fears have been realized. The American public has willingly chosen to be distracted and entertained by electronic gadgets 24 hours per day. Today, reading books is for old fogies. Most people think Bradbury’s novel was a warning about censorship. It was not. It was a warning about TV and radio turning the minds of Americans to mush.

Ha Ha

Any readers who read the back and forth between Tyler and TRS should ask themselves, "But why didn't the Fund answer these important questions?". Hey, they may not be in a death spiral, but when you make what looks like desperate moves and your returns are spiraling at the same time your liabilities are soaring, all the while your risk is flying through the roof... One should expect a blogger or two to take notice, particularly those bloggers who can count.

There is a reason why many countries institute mandatory retirement age: it is so that when dementia strikes, and people spout any damn thing that comes to mind, only the nearest four walls are subject to their insanity. Alas, when it comes to Berkshire Hathaway, no such luck. And while we have extensively discussed Warren Buffett's recent inexorable decline from merely a successful rider of the biggest cheap credit bubble in history to a captured puppet of Wall Street courtesy of his tens of billions of Wall Street-related investments, little has been said about his even older, and apparently even more affected by the unpleasant side-effects of a public televised senescence, sidekick, Charlie Munger. Luckily, courtesy of Bloomberg we now know just how deep the rot runs in the Berkshire family. During a discussion at the Universtiy fo Michigan, the 86 year old told the 25 million of Americans who comprise the 16.7% of the underemployed population in the country, to "suck it in and cope." Not only that, but apparently, all those who have been without a job for 99 weeks and more and no longer have recourse to insurance benefits, should "thank God for bank bailouts." Why of course he would say that: after all $26 billion worth of direct BRK investments were the recipient of over $95 billion in bailouts. So when it comes to him, thank god for the bailout indeed... But when it comes to the little man, old Charlie is all about doing the right thing.

Just another story....

WTF is going on here? Did someone feed booze to the collocated computers? Someone smarter than us please explain this.

Just headlines for now, but this likely means the Greek bond roadshow has been cancelled as not even the world's best underwriters were able to generate enough interest for the imminent disaster that will be Greek bonds. One can only imagine how much horror must have gotten uncovered during the roadshow process if investors, even with the backstop of the ECB's endless guarantees, have said "no mas." Luckily, Moody's earlier gave a provisional rating of AAA to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), which it now appears will be used imminently, first for Greece, then Ireland, and then everyone else who comes to the trough. If this news doesn't send the S&P over 1,220, nothing will.

The bank notes it will issue 308.6 million shares for total gross proceeds of €10.2 billion. This is somewhat perplexing as the bank currently trades at €46.88 on the XETRA. In other words, DB is selling one third of itself on a pro forma basis. Of course, this will mean a bloodbath for all the smaller banks once they commence their Basel III required capital raising activities as their discount will have to be far greater than DB's.

BofA's chief technical research analyst Mary Ann Bartels has released a note in which she demonstrates the bullish and bearish technicals currently in the market (although with the only thing mattering anymore is when and how big any given Fed permanent open market operation will be, we question the utility of technicals even). While Bartels is still holding on the a call for a "deeper equity market correction" while noting the obvious ("The equity market this year has frustrated both the bulls and the bears, and this is likely to continue into year-end, in our view") she points out that the broader market signals are mixed. She points out that "most short-term indicators have generated a sell signal and Net Tab is not oversold. We still need to break and hold above S&P 500 1150 to invalidate a potential head and shoulders distribution top. A test of the July low (1010) is still not ruled out. A break above1150 would point to a test of the April high of 1220." Today's action shows just how hard the market is trying to breach the upside resistance and disprove all the economic fundamentals that unequivocally point to an ongoing and accelerating deterioration in the economy. Below are the key charts supporting Bartels' call.

All the pieces are in place for a significant top to form and a potentially devastating reversal to begin. To wit, stocks have spiked up over major resistance at 1,131 on the S&P 500 just as the RSI nears an overbought reading.Meanwhile investor sentiment has swung by to wildly bullish with the Daily Sentiment Index showing 83% of investors bullish on the S&P 500 while the AAII survey shows 50% of investors bullish and only 24% bearish. We also have corporate insiders dumping shares as fast as possible to cash out of the market.

The WSJ is out with a short piece about new rumblings coming from Japan's $1.43T public pension fund, Japan's Public Pension Weighs New Investments. If I may be so bold as to impersonate the Japan deflation-blogger Mish for a moment, let's take a look at a few of the dynamics at play as reported by the WSJ. I'll provide some commentary along the way.

A major fire has erupted under the Harlem River bridge, where a wooden train trestle is in flames. All traffic in and out of New York via Metro North has been suspended. Watch live coverage via Fox News here.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 20/09/10

As stocks continue surging higher on absolutely no news (let along good ones), the one and only natural offset to the demented and deranged actions now undertaken by all central banks continues to be gold, which just moments ago touched on new all time spot highs at $1283.80. And while the president is touting Brian Sack and Ben Bernanke's fantastic handling of the stock market year to date, perhaps he or one of the other members of his shrinking economic team can explain why the S&P in terms of gold is down 12.65% Year to Date!