Archive - 2010

The one most promising legacy out of the greatest corporate con early in the last decade, which by the way was Enron for those of you who may not have been born yet, will undoutedly be its lobbying power. As Politico notes: "Possible successors to Bernanke include three people currently advising Obama on the economy, former Fed chief Paul Volcker, Larry Summers and Christina Romer. Kohn was traveling in Europe at the end of the week on Fed business, but strategy on the Bernanke confirmation was being led by former Enron lobbyist Linda Robertson, who is viewed as an effective advocate for the banking chief on Capitol Hill." One con lobbying for another con: what a swell summation of the sad state of affairs in this once great country.

Insider selling for the prior week declined from $418 million to just $99 million, as buying accelerated from $18 million to $41 million. The bulk of the purchases, or $38 million, occurred in two names: Cedar Fair and Texas Instruments. In the first, Q Funding, presumably an entity with a big fascination by T.S. Eliot, as its funding vehicles are called J Alfred Onshore and Prufrock Onshore, bought $13.5 million worth of FUN shares. This may mark the first time in history when a hedge fund manager is actually edumacated and doesn't name their funds for a cloud formation, or a Greek letter. The other big buyer was Longleaf Partners which bought about $25 million of Texas Instruments. In the selling category, investors in Broadwind Energy may consider dumping, as both the CEO and Jeff Gendell offloaded about $40 million worth of stock on the 21st.

December existing homes sales dropped to a 5.45 million SAAR, down a whopping 16.7%, which was the wost monthly decline in history, compared to November's unrevised 6.450 million, missing both the consensus of a 10% decline to 5.9 million, as well as Goldman's bear case of -15%. Just as with the auto SAAR,with the government housing, this is yet another data series that is completely meaningless.

A topic we have been investigating recently has been the sudden surge in direct bidding, at least as it pertains to the near end of the Treasury curve, and what the identity of the actual entity doing the buying may be. Explanations offered have ranged from China and Petrodollar accounts buying covertly, to primary dealers ramping up their activity to justify to the Fed that they are worthy for admission, all the way to the Fed conducting yet more 'under the radar' QE purchases. Today we present the opinion from Barclays, which provides another, fourth, view on things, theirs being the most benign one, namely that plain vanilla accounts have been purchasing Treasuries via the direct bid.

"Apologies for the extended silence as I was travelling in Asia. I will be back later with a broad update on markets as there is a lot to talk about. Quickly first in fixed income we have a potential evening star in formation. As can be seen on the 30-minute chart we are leaning on channel support, and a close below 117-19+ would validate the candle-stick pattern at the daily level. There is little divergence in the indicators but if this rally was a correction within the bear trend then it is often-times the case that the market reverses without much warning. 118-10 is the major resistance above, and 117-03 should be support here in the short-term. As long as 118-10 is not violated we keep an eye on the long term support at 114-01 now." - Nic Lenoir

The SPX is going to plunge 10-20%, Treasury bond interest rates are going to soar (TBT), and gold (GLD) has peaked out. Then brace yourself for the Big One in 2013. (SPX), (TBT), (GLD), (FXA), (UNG), (WHEAT), (CORN), (SOYBEANS)

• Samuelson: China's $2.4 trillion global grip (RCM)
• Game over Tishman Speyer: look for CRE CMBS numbers to plunge next month (Bloomberg, WSJ)
• More Bernanke-fail threats for the peasantry: fire and brimstone, Geithner edition (Politico)
• Obama's bank plan could level high-frequency field (Reuters)
• UBS tax ruling by Swiss court may prompt new U.S. legal battle (Bloomberg)
• Goldman to cap London partners' compensation at 1 million pounds (Bloomberg)

• Asian stocks fall for sixth day on Obama plan to curb banks, Yen weakens.
• Bank of Japan said to be open to expanding Emergency loans, bond purchases.
• China property data may 'under-represent’ bubble risks, World Bank says.
• German consumer confidence declined for a fourth month in a row.
• Gold futures climbed as much as $10/oz on weak USD.
• Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher at $74/bbl helped by a weaker U.S. dollar.

Update: The book has now closed for European Orders at €23 Billion in orders

• Greece 5yr €uro Benchmark – Books > €11bn/Spread revised
• Issuer: The Hellenic Republic A2 neg/ BBB+ neg/ BBB+ neg RegS / 144A
• Amount: €uro Benchmark Cpn: tbc % ann, act/act
• Settlement: t+5 (tbc) Maturity: 20 August 2015 (5 years)
• PriceGuide: MidSwaps + 350/365bps ****
• Leads: CS, DB, Eurobank EFG, GS, MS & NBG + coleads B&D: DB (duration manager) Timing:
• Books open, pricing no later than mid week

The difference between the world when Volcker was Fed chairman and today is the end of Glass Steagall. Instead of bailing out simple lenders, the Fed now faces the task of managing and saving giant securities and securitization platforms that are too big to manage in a rational fashion. Don't fool yourself into thinking that JPM chief Jamie Dimon or any CEO of a TBTF bank has the slightest idea what is really happening within their enterprise.

RANsquawk 25th January Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

The timing and haste of the newly proposed Volcker Rule by Obama has drawn criticism that this is simply a transparent attempt at populism in light of the Dems Massachusetts defeat. Moreover, it certainly does not address the more dire issue of the Middle America – jobs.

We are often accused of being paranoid here at Zero Hedge, generally by our many detractors. Occupational hazard, we suppose. So when we pen missives wondering about the use of "National Security" exceptions to SEC disclosure and filing requirements for public companies, we tend to get a lot of smug "you're crazy" correspondence. Then a little time passes, and someone like Reuters writes an article.

Bankers are destroying Capitalism. Unfortunately, most Westerners won’t realize this until five years from now, when the middle class has been forcibly relegated to the ranks of the poor. And this isn’t just a situation that will afflict America but it will likely afflict Japan and many countries in the EU such as the UK, Spain, and Greece just to name a few.

Whenever I read that pension fund consultants are "being inundated with requests," my antennas go up, as does the hair behind my neck!