Archive - Oct 17, 2011

So lame is Europe’s latest attempt at spin control that Americans could view it as comic relief from our own worries about the U.S. economy’s accelerating death spiral. Creating a global diversion was doubtless a goal of the exercise, which featured Sarkozy and Merkel, president and chancellor, respectively, of France and Germany, posing for the photo-op unveiling of a scheme – sorry, no details at this time –  to put Greece and the rest of the PIIGS on sound financial footing. Never mind that France itself starts to look like a financial basket case if one scrutinizes their books too closely; or that the German people, if not yet their leaders, have lost their appetite for bailing out the rest of Europe. And never mind either that, rather than describing their supposed plan, Merkel and Sarkozy have merely promised to tell us more about it in the fullness of time – reportedly at a November meeting of Euroland’s potentates, wizards and feather merchants.

Another stunning EPS beat from Citi today which reported $20.8 billion in revenue and $1.23 in earnings on expectations of $19.23 billion in top line and $0.82 in EPS.... Until one actually reads the following two parts from the earnings release: "Third quarter revenues included $1.9 billion of credit valuation adjustment (CVA) reflecting the widening of Citi’s credit spreads during the third quarter. Excluding CVA, third quarter 2011 revenues were $18.9 billion, 8% below the prior year period and 8% below the second quarter 2011. CVA increased reported third quarter earnings by $0.39 per share"....and... "Loan Loss Reserve Release of $1.4 Billion in Third Quarter, Down from $2.0 Billion in Each of Second Quarter 2011 and Third Quarter 2010." Once again, the bank releases reserves (i.e. a perceived improvement in economic conditions), even as its takes a benefit for major economic deterioration (the equivalent of hypothetically buying bank its debt at lower prices due to risk flaring, or said otherwise, buying CDS on itself). Either way, this is non-recurring gibberish. You take the $3.77 billion in Net Income, take out $1.9 billion in "buying CDS on yourself", and the $1.4 billion in phantom EPS loss reserve, and end up with $0.5 billion or $0.16 per share. It will take the vacuum tubes about an hour to figure this out. Oh yes, and revenues were really $18.9 billion ex $1.888 billion in CVA. Adding insult to injury is that Citi will now have to pull a Morgan Stanley and defend itself against its European exposure: Citigroup (C) has $14.4 billion gross funded exposure in France and Belgium, and $18.0 billion unfunded commitment to Belgium/France.

• Chinese banks fight for deposits (FT)... unlike those in the US
• Hong Kong Starts Trading Bullion in Yuan (Bloomberg)
• Can hyperinflation happen here? (Mauldin)
• G-20 Gives EU One Week to Fix Debt Crisis (Bloomberg)... make that 6 days now
• Greek PM calls for unity before reform vote (FT)
• Banks and insurers defend ‘liquidity swaps’ (FT)
• Greek debt write-down must be larger: German finance minister (Reuters)
• EU faces 20 years of rising energy bills (FT)
• Lack of ECB firepower weakens Europe’s Grand Plan (Telegraph)
• Deutsche Bank’s casinos exposure hits $4.9bn (FT)

Appetite for risk was observed during the Asian and European sessions on enhanced prospects that the eight-day deadline given by the G-20 leaders to resolve an ongoing Eurozone debt crisis would bring some positive outcome before the EU leaders' summit on October 23rd. Nikkei (+1.41%) closed higher and European equities also received a boost, with financials as one of the better performing sectors, which was further helped by comments from Moody's that accelerating talks to recapitalise European banks are credit positive for the banks. News that China has offered to spend tens of billions buying European infrastructure projects and government debts strengthened the appetite for risk. However, later in the European session, comments from the German finance minister and a German government spokesman that a concrete solution for the Eurozone crisis couldn't be found by the EU summit dented risk-appetite. In the forex market, after trading lower during early European trade, the USD-Index ventured in positive territory, which in turn weighed upon EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity-linked currencies, however GBP did receive support following a sharp jump in the Rightmove House Prices from the UK overnight. In other news, CHF received a boost across the board following market talk that SNB's president Hildebrand may resign, whereas CAD received support on news that the Canadian finance minister and the Bank of Canada governor may go beyond inflation-beating monetary policy measures. Moving into the North American open, markets will look ahead to key economic data from the US in the form of Empire manufacturing, industrial production and capacity utilisation.

Hong Kong, the world's third-largest gold trading centre, has become the world's first place to offer gold trading in yuan, further positioning the yuan or renminbi as a potential global reserve currency. Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society, a century old bullion bourse, has introduced gold trading quoted in Chinese yuan, making it more convenient for Chinese people and high net worth individuals (HNWs) holding yuan to invest in the precious metal and opening a new way to hedge. The move comes amid the continuing push by Chinese authorities for a more international role for its currency and as an alternate reserve currency to the embattled dollar and euro. With gold now traded in yuan, it is only a matter of time before oil is traded in yuan thereby positioning the yuan as ‘petro yuan’ and a rival to the petrodollar’s status as the global reserve currency. The move reinforces Hong Kong’s status as an offshore hub for the Chinese currency and as a rival to New York, London and other cities as a global financial capital. The Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange said that the service, dubbed "Renminbi Kilobar Gold," is targeting retail and institutional investors. The product is among the latest offerings designed to tap the fast-growing pool of yuan deposits within Hong Kong banking system. "By attracting both local and international investors, the Renminbi Kilobar Gold is a significant step towards internationalizing the renminbi," said Haywood Cheung, president of CGSE.

With all the anticipation of Grand Plans this week, I decided I should get in the mood and write something positive. So I tried hard to think of something truly positive and linked to the Grand Plan and then it hit me. The Cold War. Both sides won. I think “win-win” might be more of a lie than synergy, but here is a case where both sides won.

The US and the rest of the developed world have a schedule of occupied venues for the next several days, false European headlines, and the occasional economic event.... Greece has a schedule of strikes. For those wondering what the oppotunity cost of Greek GDP and surplus is, here you go.

Nobody could have foreseen this, nobody, certainly not the vacuum tubes who took the S&P for a ride for nearly 150 points. As Reuters reports, "the euro fell to a session low versus the dollar on Monday after comments from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble saying the EU summit would not present a definitive solution to the euro zone debt crisis prompted investors to sell the single currency." No, that's not true, it's impossible. You mean all those hopes... Dashed? "A Bundesbank report saying the German economic outlook had deteriorated further also curbed some of the market optimism that had helped push the euro to a one-month high earlier in the session. The euro hit a session low of $1.3824 before recovering slightly to last trade down 0.3 percent on the day at $1.3840." And since the EURUSD and stocks trade as one... You know the rest.