Archive - Nov 14, 2011

Allow me to apologize for doubling posts, but I want it to be absolutely clear who did this first...

UPDATE: Full Statement to the EC attached

Noting that the Italian political parties are aware of their responsibilities, new Italian PM Monti expects to complete his initial consultations tomorrow as Bloomberg reports having received a copy of a letter to the European Commission. Bloomberg notes that the letter expects 300,000 public sector job cuts, raising the retirement age quicker than other nations and a tax system overhaul. All credible moves, but we wonder just how this will jibe with the increasingly recession-prone deleveraging that seems likely to occur next quarter at the latest. It brings the ball squarely back into the ECB's hands as monetary saviors while the slow process of fiscal correction occurs - and as we have noted, we believe that another risk-off cluster is likely before the ECB will retract its words.

Update: we have learned that the current iteration of HR 682 is HR 1148, it's purpose is "To prohibit commodities and securities trading based on nonpublic information relating to Congress, to require additional reporting by Members and employees of Congress of securities transactions, and for other purposes" sponsored by Tim Waltz, and as of June 1 was... referred to the Subcommittee on the Constitution.

Following yesterday's 60 Minutes grotesque special which finally exposed to the general public what most experts in the industry have known for many years, namely that the bulk of "profits" for Congressmen (at a fixed $174,000 salary for the current year) and Senators are made courtesy of perfectly legal insider trading, it is time to ask the logical next question: how is it possible that the US system of checks and balances has failed so spectacularly, as to allow a glaringly illegal activity for everyone else to proceed and to generate multi-million dollar windfalls for congressional and senatorial critters? It would be perfectly understandable if some very righteous anger accompanies said question. Well, as it turns out, some, very few, Congressmen have a conscience and do believe in operating within the confines of the law, and 2 years ago proposed HR 682: Stop Trading On Congressional Knowledge Act. HR 682, sponsored by Rep. Brian Baird, has a purpose "To prohibit securities and commodities trading based on nonpublic information relating to Congress, and to require additional reporting by Members and employees of Congress of securities transaction, and for other purposes." Wonder why you have never heard of HR 682, aside from the obvious: that Congress would never vote in a law to cut off this massive illegal form of funding for itself: "This bill never became law." Well, duh.

You only get challenges like this from Banzai7...

The United States is a country built upon the four C’s: Crude, Cars, Credit, and Consumption. They are intertwined and can’t exist without crude as the crucial ingredient. As the amount of crude available declines and the price rises, the other three C’s will breakdown. Our warped consumer driven economy collapses without the input of cheap plentiful oil. Those at the top levels of government realize this fact. It is not a coincidence that the War on Terror is the current cover story to keep our troops in the Middle East. It is not a coincidence the uncooperative rulers (Hussein, Gaddafi) of the countries with the 5^th and 9^th largest oil reserves on the planet have been dispatched. It is not a coincidence the saber rattling grows louder regarding the Iranian regime, as they sit atop 155 billion barrels of oil, the 4^th largest reserves in the world. It should also be noted the troops leaving Iraq immediately began occupying Kuwait, owner of the 6^th largest oil reserves on the planet. Oil under the South China Sea and in the arctic is being hotly pursued by the major world players. China and Russia are supporting Iran in their showdown with Israel and the U.S. As the world depletes the remaining oil, conflict and war are inevitable. The term Energy Independence will carry a different meaning than the one spouted by mindless politicians as the oil runs low.

On Friday, when we learned about Goldman's latest FX recommendation which said to "go long EUR/$ with a narrow stop at 1.35 for an initial target of 1.40 (currently at 1.3715)", we said: "Time to sell the EURUSD with both hands and feet, not to mention with MF Global-type leverage: that uber-contrarian FX indicator, Goldman's Thomas Stolper, who has not had a notable call correct in the past 2 years, just came out with a long EURUSD call, calling for a 1.40 target and a 1.35 stop loss. Yes, this means Goldman is now selling EURUSD until 1.40 and will begin buying it at 1.35. As a reminder here is how Stolper's last EUR/$ recommendation ended." Sure enough, 24 hours later, Goldman is under 100 pips from being stopped out: at last check the EURUSD just touched on 1.3596.

Hmmm: Who is the Swiss PM and who is the Goldman Sachs advisor for Switzerland?

For the moment we appear to be in limbo, where stocks and other risk assets will rally no matter what?  The view seems to be that if European sovereign debt improves, then risk will do well.  There is little fear right now, as the assumption is that if sovereign debt does poorly, Germany will relent and the ECB will officially begin printing money (we say officially, because it is getting harder and harder to believe they are truly "sterilizing" their purchase in a true market neutral fashion). So that seems to be the idea out there, be long risk because if Europe improves, you will win, and if Europe gets worse, it will print, and you will win.  That just doesn't make sense to us, as we think Germany is further from capitulating on printing than the market seems to have priced in.

Just hitting the tape... and the EURUSD:

• MERKEL'S CDU VOTES TO ALLOW EXITS FROM EURO AREA

This should not be news: this was reported last week, and the only question is whether or not the "voluntary" language would be embedded in the phrasing. Either way, risk is off.

Whether it's Chuck Schumer or another headline-hungry banker/politician/long-only-equity-strategist, the one note of constancy among global macro perspectives has been - China needs to re-value the Yuan. The "it's not fair" crowd or "everything will be fixed if we can just compete on equal terms" talking-heads may want to take a look at the BIS effective exchange rates. It is evidently clear that since 2005 the USA has been on a path of very considerable currency devaluation - down almost 16% while the Yuan has strengthened almost 38% based on the BIS effective exchange rates. The effective exchange rates (EER) provide a better indicator of the macroeconomic effects of exchange rates than any single bilateral rate and are described here. After this morning's comments from China, perhaps it is time for our Asian trade partners (or should we say vendor financiers) to raise the rhetoric that the US is the one not playing fair?

There's that name again: BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, and the firm that was forced to deny last Wednesday it is in any trouble courtesy of accumulating unknown amounts of Italian bonds (how about a nice little Cusip list there Rick Reider?), just made the news following a report in Reuters that the firm anticipates massive haircuts in 3 of the 5 PIIGS. From Reuters: "Debt restructuring in Greece, Portugal and Ireland with write-downs for private creditors of 75 percent to 80 percent are needed to help stop Europe's debt crisis turning into a global meltdown, said BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset managers. "Governments are falling, bond yields are zig-zagging by whole percentage points and markets around the world are locking up: the euro zone turmoil risks turning into a global crisis," BlackRock said in a research note on Monday." So, let's see: Greece, Portugal and Ireland... But not Italy of course? The country that has the second largest amount of debt in Europe is somehow excluded from a very conflicted BlackRock's "objective" analysis. Why is that? "BlackRock also said the European Central Bank should buy more bonds and that policymakers should provide more details on the rescue fund and implement fiscal discipline without hurting growth, according to the note." Is BlackRock betting the farm that the ECB will bail it out? That didn't work too well for MF... Seriously, Rick, some CUSIP level breakdown of your Italian exposure would be terrific. Even if it is at the "net" level. We can wait. So can the market.

I probably won't even have time for an "I told you so" as the business sectors and "to be funded entities" that have been floating on hopium catch a hard dose of reality and start collapsing.

It seems that rotating a few pawns at the top is not quite the bazooka everyone expected it to be last week. Case in point: CDS in the core European trio of France, Spain and Belgium just hit new all time wides. But before anyone blames evil CDS speculators, it is notable that CDS is significantly outperforming cash bonds. And since everything that can be said about Europe's ongoing implosion has been said already, the only question is which Goldman "advisor" will replace Sarko in a few weeks.

You thought China was going to take this weekend's endless bashing by Obama, telling it to grow up and act as "an adult", lying down? You thought wrong. China main daily publication Xinhua has just released possibly the most scathing anti-America editorial via Liu Tian, to ever see the very public light of day. "For the United States, it should put its house in order before chiding others. Since the onset of U.S. subprime crisis in 2007, it was the country's domestic economic problems that triggered a disastrous financial crisis that swept the world. Excessive spending for many years has added up debts. Meanwhile, traditional strong industries such as finance and auto were devastated by the crisis, pushing up unemployment. In face of such serious domestic problems which probably could trigger a new global economic tsunami, many U.S. politicians seemed only to care about how many votes they could get, without having a single thought about what kind of the global responsibilities the country should take. Thus it should come as no surprise that the angry "Occupy Wall Street" protesters are calling for an end to the political tricks in Washington." Ball is in your court president Obama: it is now your turn to piss off your biggest creditor (at least until QE3 ends) even further.