Archive - Nov 1, 2011

Since obviously nobody in charge has learned anything at all, and all the old school games will continue until they no longer can, and demand for US paper, already plunging at the international level, disappears (aside from the Fed of course: the Fed will always be a happy last ditch monetizer of one-ply US paper), here is the Treasury's just released schedule for bond issuance for Fiscal Q1 (Oct-Dec 2011), and Q2 (Jan-March 2012), which amounts to $305 billion and $541 billion, respectively, or a total of $846 billion in 6 months, a $141 billion run rate per month. This compares to a total of $628 billion issued over the comparable period a year ago (although granted the Treasury did burn a whopping $225 billion in cash in Q1 of 2010). In other words, the US Treasury is planning on issuing 35% more in the first half of the fiscal year than a year previously, even though this time last year the Fed was monetizing all gross issuance, and even though the European EFSF was not about to ramp up issuance and soak up hundreds of billions of excess fixed income targeted capital. Now we only have some vague, ineffectively sterilized duration transfer operation which is doing nothing to lift belly demand, and merely takes care of the long end (while the Fed's promise to keep rates at zero until 2013 makes all bonds 2 years and less to be off zero effective duration). We doubt this schedule is even remotely sustainable without some imminent form of Large Scale Asset Purchase program being implement (with or without MBS monetization: for a definitive answer on this issue, please call 949-720-6226), and none of that Nominal GDP targeting mumbo jumbo. Unlike Europe, the Fed knows that money talks, and bullshit targeting walks.

Now that the affdavit of MF Global COO Bradley Abelow has been filed, we finally get the (partial and quite watered down) inside scoop of just what the events were that brought the company to its knees, and what specifically were the precipitating catalysts that ultimately led to the Halloween massacre. The relevant part begins with section E, paragraph 33, on page 13. "As a global financial services firm, MF Global is materially affected by conditions in the global financial markets and worldwide economic conditions. On September 1, 2011, MF Holdings announced that FINRA informed it that its regulated U.S. operating subsidiary, MFGI, was required to modify its capital treatment of certain repurchase transactions to maturity collateralized with European sovereign debt and thus increase its required net capital pursuant to SEC Rule 15c3-1. MFGI increased its required net capital to comply with FINRA’s requirement...." Read on.

Then about 7 weeks ago, the FCBs not only slowed their purchase rate of Treasuries and Agencies, they began selling outright, and have continued to do so at unprecedented levels.

The problem with sweeping unresolved problems, especially of the unstable gamma decay variety, is that they tend to pop up at the most inopportune of times. Such as during global coordinated fiat ponzi bailouts. Kyodo reports that according to TEPCO a fresh fission reaction has restarted at Fukushima Daichi, and that boric acid is being injected to control a "possible nuclear reaction." Hardly the encouraging news that the world needs right about now.

Friday’s confidence vote in the Greek parliament will be extremely important in our view and will likely set the pace of the anticipated EUR decline over the coming months. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou could now find it difficult to win a confidence vote (due Friday 10GMT) given the defections from the government leave only the slimmest of majorities (just 151 votes in the 300 parliament). If the Greek PM fails to win the confidence vote then the government will fall. There is the possibility for a new Government under a different PM or the formation of a unity government. But these outcomes seem unlikely given that the opposition is strongly in favour of new elections. While new elections will delay the vote on the new budget reform measures and potentially delay the next round of bailout funds from the EU, this is likely to be seen as one of the most positive (least bearish) outcomes for the EUR as it will avoid a referendum. There could even be an initial relief rebound for the EUR on any news that a referendum is being avoided, by the continued uncertainty and delays with regard the passing of the new budget measures and payment of EU bailout funds will likely keep the EUR under pressure over the medium term. Indeed, most of the options under discussion in the market are EUR negative in our view. A victory by Papandreou in the confidence vote on Friday is likely to be seen as the most bearish for the EUR, opening the door to a referendum and the potential rejection of the bailout package by the Greek population.

Nothing really new per se, just G-Pap reiterating, now that his meeting is finally over at about 2 am local, that the referendum will proceed as noted earlier, probably some time in January, and Europe will like it or leave it.

• GREEKS TO VOTE ON EURO MEMBERSHIP IN REFERENDUM: PAPANDREOU - BBG
• GREEK PM SAYS PARTNERS WILL RESPECT AND SUPPORT GREECE'S EFFORTS -RTRS

What? Or Else? And how does this mesh with the following headline from Bloomberg:

• Netherlands Will Try to Get Greek Referendum Canceled, PM Says

At what point do the crazy pills run out already?

There will be NO announcement of QE 3 tomorrow. Why? Because the Fed has trapped itself into a corner. The first two rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE1 and 2) were viable for the Fed as inflation was running at deflationary levels in 2009 and at the bottom of their target range of 1-3% in 2010. In both instances the implementation of asset purchase programs, which immediately juiced liquidity in the financial markets, had an immediate and pronounced effect on the level of inflation. Today, with inflation currently approaching 4% on a year-over-year basis the Fed is not only outside its inflation mandate of 1-3% but any further cost pressures on the consumer is going to drive the economy into a recession. As we showed recently in our post on 3rd quarter GDP with food and energy consumer more than 23% of wages and salaries there is very little wiggle room for the average American.

It is now 100% safe to say that the 100 basis point "springing rate clause" in the 6.25% bond indenture (that never saw even one coupon payment before the company filed) should Corzine join the White House will never be triggered. As NBC reports, Federal prosecutors and the FBI are set to join the inquiry into what happened to hundreds of millions of dollars invested with a securities firm headed by former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, officials familiar with the case told NBC New York. The Justice Department involvement comes as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodities Future Trading Commission have said their own inquiry is underway into the collapse of the brokerage firm, MF Global Holdings Ltd. The head of the Chicago Mercantile exchange said Tuesday that the firm broke rules requiring it to keep clients' money and company funds in separate accounts. U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara declined to comment Tuesday as did DOJ spokesmen in New York and Washington. An FBI spokesman also declined to comment.

As the European news flow overflow continues, it is useful to occasionally look at how America's own economy is doing. After all remember that the latest paradigm is that the US will decouple from everyone (as is always foolishly and erroneously assumed whenever the ROW turns lower) and carry the weight of the global economy on its own shoulders. So here is this month's refresh from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which informs us that in August, a new all time record number of Americans, or 45.8 million, relied on food stamps for sustenance. So for those who are looking for those up and coming states where the population has decided that slowly but surely work of any kind is an anachronism we suggest you move to Alabama, Delaware, Utah, or Washington: all states that have seen at least a 3% sequential increase in food stamp usage. And, tangentially, confirming that this country's economy is headed straight to hell and won't pass go is the latest news from LPS according to which nearly 40% of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in two years, and 72% have not made a payment in the past 12 month. Bullish for iPad purchases.

We just experienced a bank run in the US that I have been warning of for months on end. A bank run that resulted in this country's 8th largest bankruptcy,,, ever - and nobody even noticed.

After my initial despair at the announcement of the referendum -- a decision I consider frivolous, suspicious and dangerous -- I was overcome by a strange calm. I understood, as never before, that the Greeks do not feel alive if not flirting with death. I don't know if, in his simplistic political obsessions, George Papandreou felt this and therefore pushed the country into a game of Russian roulette. In any case, he put bullets in the revolver and handed it to the people.

With the S&P closing -2.5% led by another financials sell-off (-4.3%), the long-hoped for late-day-rumor failed to appear and save the knife-catchers. The major credit indices modestly outperformed equities today although the after-hours (Greek govt is not collapsing) rally-monkey dragged ES (up to VWAP) closer to credit's performance as stocks closed back to 10/21 levels while credit held more in the 10/24 region. Another huge day in the TSY complex saw the 30Y rally around 15bps (back under 3%), 10Y drop back under 2% and major flattening continue as 2s10s30s collapses further. FX markets were dominated by EUR's referendum-on / referendum-off volatility as the dollar maintained its strength which was ignored by Gold which managed to rally while commodities and silver generally lost ground today. Implied Vol and correlation spiked as macro protection was bid in equity markets but notably, secondary bonds and CDS saw major regions of net-selling as opposed to blanket protection demand - suggesting IG credit has reached its limit on second-guessing and is derisking at the individual level (as opposed to macro hedging) especially higher beta names.

Contrary to rumors that the entire referendum will be called off, and be replaced with elections instead, it appears that it won't be, and instead, per the BBC, will progress based on G-Pap's fatal assumption that the public will actually vote for the bailout, the loss of sovereignty, and perpetual austerity. Via Bloomberg:

• Papandreou Adviser Sees Greek Public Backing Bailout Plan: BBC
  

and it's official:

• GREEK GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN TOLKAS SAYS REFERENDUM TO GO AHEAD

Good luck.

Oakland is struggling – we need real leaders NOW who will step up and lead." ~ Oakland Police Officer’s Association