Archive - Nov 21, 2011

Impoverishing our fellow Americans has never been more profitable. 

Every municipality has to make its own decision on how to handle the issue of free speech and appropriate countermeasures...--Barry Debtbama, CEO Amerika Ink-orporated

While pervasive asset liquidations are dragging everything lower, stocks and gold included, one thing is doing amazingly well and is up over 7% intraday and nearly 36% in the past 5 days. The "thing" is, naturally, the Anti-Tilson ETF: the pair trade of being long GMCR (Tilson's vocal short) and short NFLX (Tilson's legendary flip flop). Just like theStreet did an amazing job of being the contrarian indicator du jour, so Tilson continues to be the market's most valuable (counter) indicator.

One could be forgiven for suspecting a hint of self-preservation in a research note by the firm that faces the most intense pressure given its apparent European sovereign exposure but Jefferies' strategist David Zervos' note today seems extreme in many ways. With the sanctity of the known world at risk, Zervos describes the group-think of sado-fiscalism that has invaded German minds and how the Fed is the only one left with the 'bazookas' big enough to get the job done. Besides, he notes, we did not spend all that money on the Marshall plan just to have Europe blow up the world again!

Luckily the market is all stable and stuff and can handle the prospect of a potential Iran war.

• SARKOZY WRITES LETTERS CONCERNING IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
• SARKOZY SAYS IRAN'S PROGRAM IS A 'SERIOUS AND URGENT' THREAT
• SARKOZY SAYS NEW SANCTIONS WOULD FORCE IRAN TO NEGOTIATE

Now where is that weekly US naval update...

This has to be an almost as epic call as Dick Bove's upgrade of Lehman days before its bankruptcy.

While we spend a lot of our time pointing out critical factors driving the reality of our markets and economies, today's note from David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff, provides a spot-on and unarguable description of what every one of your favorite long-only strategist, sell-side economist, and hope-heavy CNBC anchor told you would happen - and hasn't! Then Rosie goes on to compare Italy to Lehman in a not so flattering light.

Update 2: FMCN has now been halted 3 times. Dick Bove does NOT have a buy recommendation on the name

Update: Trading has resumed: modest dead cat bounce on short covering

It took the market only an hour or so to realize what is going on with FMCN. To those who shorted the stock outright - congratulations. To those who are long puts - you may be out of luck. The stock may reopen some time in 2012, long after puts have expired.

Little to be said about today's $35 Billion 2 Year auction: it was nothing short of a complete scramble for cover in a piece of paper that comes due just around the time of the Fed's guaranteed ZIRP interval of mid-2013 (which will likely be extended). The result: an all time record high Bid To Cover of 4.07, the highest since records started being kept back in 1993. The yield was 0.28%, inside of the 0.285% When Issued level trading at 1pm. Yet notably, Dealers took down just 46.53% of the auction, the lowest since October 2010: this compares to 54.16% for the LTM period, and 52.57% for the prior auction. This is not unexpected considering the Primary Dealer issues in the aftermath of MF Global. Indirects stepped up and took home 42.24% of the final allocation - the highest since February 2010. Directs were in line at 11.24%, just below the LTM average of 14.30%. Overall, nothing says price stability like 0.28% on 2 Year paper. And so much for the Fed's attempts to sell the short end of the curve via Twist.

We were one of the earliest to raise concerns about the future impact of the maturing TLGP debt that was 'given' to the bank-holding-companies in the middle of the crisis three years ago. December is the first month with very significant maturities as more than $52bn comes due, with $14.9bn next week alone. The banks face at least two major problems from this debt maturing: 1) It is sizable and primary markets seem unlikely to be able or willing to soak up such large issuance without significant concessions, and 2) The extremely low cost of funds for this debt means that rolling into market rates will drastically impact earnings (as interest expenses jump - should fundamentals matter again). BAC faces $3.6bn maturing, MS $3.75bn, and JPM $7.55bn next week alone.

If Sino Forest is any indication, the $3 billion market cap company is about to have a B -> M market cap transition. The reason: Muddy Waters just said FMCN could be the next Olympus: "FMCN has been fraudulently overstating the number of screens in its LCD network by approximately 50%. This is similar to China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (OTC: CCME), which we reported is a fraud on February 3, 2011. We therefore question whether FMCN’s core LCD business is viable."  From the report: "Muddy Waters rates Focus Media Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN) shares a Strong Sell because of significant overstatement of the number of screens in its LCD network and its Olympus-style acquisition overpayments. The $1.1 billion in write-downs from its acquisitions exceed one-third of FMCN’s enterprise value, making FMCN’s acquisitive behavior more destructive than Olympus’s to shareholder value. FMCN insiders have sold at least $1.7 billion worth of stock (two-thirds of FMCN’s enterprise value) since FMCN’s IPO. At the same time, the insiders and their business associates further enrich themselves by trading in FMCN assets, while costing FMCN shareholders substantial sums of money."

We believe that the Super Commitee’s lack of action portends for inaction by our government until the 2012 election is concluded. We also believe, that no matter who wins the printing presses are gearing up. There are two scenarios we are looking at though a political prism. Our conclusions are digital. First of all and of major importance , we believe it is in the GOPs interest to have the economy be in its worst shape possible going into the election. It is their method to be the party of no to Obama’s ideas. And it is their method to be the party of “tax cuts” to actual suggestions. This is essentially what came out of the Super Committee. The GOP wanted tax cuts, the Dems did not. Thus deadlock continues. Therefore nothing will happen until post election. And post election, the dollar will get decimated. Post election will create an environment wherein risk assets rise again. There will be Good Inflation (Stocks, Stocks, and more Stocks) and bad inflation (oil, gold and grains). Wall Street wins as fees from the never ending asset ping pong makes investors migrate their holdings from one class to another. Remember those Golden Crumbs that fall off the bonds when they are sold, from Bonfire of the Vanities?

And so the wave of beta chasers has once again be caught flat footed. Following the 11% jump in the S&P, hedge funds, which are now down 2% YTD (more on that shortly) and getting killed with redemption requests, it was only natural that in focusing solely on performance and not on fundamentals, that margin debt would increase. Sure enough, the NYSE has reported that in October, margin debt jumped by $21 billion, the most since June 2007's $25 billion... just in time for the market rout. And as funds levered up yet again, net worth, which nets out free credit cash accounts and cash balances in margin accounts, plunged by $46 billion, the most since the Lehman collapse which saw net worth implode by $184 billion. And just as the market ramped for no reason in October, it has now already retraced almost half the gains in the prior month. Oops.

The day after MF Global filed, we calculated that contrary to widely accepted media expectations that the client theft at MF Global was limited to "only" $600 million, the true client loss (and thus, MF Global executive felony) was in fact up to $1.5 billion. Sure enough, three weeks in the Trustee has come to see things in a comparable light. From Reuters: "The trustee liquidating MF Global Holdings Ltd'sbroker-dealer unit said on Monday that the apparent "shortfall" of customer funds may be larger than the futures brokerage had reported prior to its bankruptcy. "The trustee believes that even if he recovers everything that is at U.S. depositories, the apparent shortfall in what MF Global management should have segregated at U.S. depositories may be as much as $1.2 billion or more," the trustee, James Giddens, said in a statement. He added that the amount could change. Giddens also said he expects in early December to transfer 60 percent of what is in segregated customer accounts for U.S. futures positions, pending court approval. He said the transfer would require $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion to implement, exhausting much of the assets under the trustee's control. MF Global was run by former Goldman Sachs & Co chief and New Jersey governor Jon Corzine before its Chapter 11 filing on Oct. 31. The filing came after the New York-based company revealed that it made a $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign debt. Corzine resigned on Nov. 4." In other news, major Chicago-based exchanges are fine (no seriously: they got some very sweet preferential terms in the account transfer... to the detriment of former MF Global accounts). And it goes without saying that Corzine has not even been questioned yet.