Archive - Dec 6, 2011

Whether it has been investor sentiment, equity implied volatility, or sovereign bond spreads, 2011 has been a year of extremes. The roller-coaster of various spreads, prices, curves, and flows still leaves us cognitively dissonant as we anchor on recent action and forget where we came from. BofA has produced a 'stress heatmap' that at-a-glance illustrates the behavior of 20 critical cross asset class warning signals throughout 2012 and we note this Critical Stress Signal has been in risk-off mode since July 12th - which fits well with the relative perspective we have long-held that high-yield credit is pricing for considerably more concerns than equities for instance. Seven crucial aspects are highlighted throughout the year, most notably the slower than expected tail-risk hedge demands in Europe as we suspect ECB QE complacency remains far too high. Nowhere is that optimism more evident of policy maker intervention than in the money flow indicators currently which are back in non-stressed territory.

A lot of punters are awfully confident that Santa Claus will deliver his usual year end rally this year. A glance at a few charts calls that confidence into question. Let's take a look at a daily chart of the S&P 500. (Those of you who loathe charts, please scroll down and enjoy the pithy conclusion.) While charts are as much a reflection of the reader as the market, several things pop out of this chart to me. One is the bullish flag in September. The On Balance Volume (OBV) was rising while price declined, a classic example of bullish divergence. Given this and some other clues (sentiment hit an extreme of bearishness, VIX spiked,etc.), then the rally in October was not exactly "out of the blue." But when we turn to recent action, the indicators are bearish. OBV climbed to a new high, but price did not even make it up to the previous high--a bearish divergence. Now OBV has plummeted while price has skyrocketed higher, an extremely ugly divergence.

Following a widely publicized bounce in the Paulson & Co. performance in October, a time in which even the since retired beta chaser extraordinaire Bill Miller probably made money, and following the mocked by Zero Hedge 13F announcement that John Paulson had sold gold exposure to buy even more Bank of America stock, we now learn that the fund's LPs have once again resumed crash positions, with the performance of his fund dropping back to 2011 lows at -46% through November. Bloomberg brings us details: "Paulson’s Advantage Plus Fund, which seeks to profit from corporate events such as takeovers and bankruptcies and uses leverage to amplify returns, declined 3.6 percent last month. The fund’s gold share class dropped 2.7 percent in November and 29 percent this year. Paulson & Co., which is based in New York and manages $28 billion, has lost money this year on investments including Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Sino-Forest Corp., the Chinese forestry company accused by short-seller Carson Block of overstating timberland holdings. Paulson’s biggest funds, Advantage Plus and Advantage ... have $11 billion in combined assets. The dollar-denominated Advantage Fund fell 3.3 percent in November and 32 percent this year. Its gold share class slumped 1.5 percent last month and 13 percent in 2011. Paulson investors can choose between dollar- and gold-denominated versions for most of the firm’s funds." Perhaps it would be easier for Bloomberg to track what the former Bear trader has actually made money on in 2011. We are confident they would be surprised by the list.

Are we going to get a Christmas Rally in stocks? Perhaps. So thinks Art Cashin quoting Tom DeMark (whose predictions lately have all been about as good as those of another Tom: the infamous Stolper from Goldman Sachs). Either way, any fake rally for purely Career Risk purposes (most hedge funds still underperform the market with two weeks of trading left in the year) will be met with an even more aggressive sell off in the new, "no fiscal stimulus" year. Aka: "the bill."

From the full release: "We could lower the long-term credit rating on EFSF by one or two notches if we were to lower the 'AAA' sovereign ratings, which are currently on CreditWatch, on one or more of EFSF's guarantor members. Conversely, we could affirm the 'AAA' ratings on EFSF and its issues if we affirm the rating on all six of EFSF's guarantor members currently rated 'AAA'. We could also affirm the ratings if we were to lower the current 'AAA' ratings on one or more guarantor members, but had evidence that the EFSF guarantor members were implementing further credit enhancements that were in our view sufficient to mitigate the relevant guarantor members' reduced creditworthiness."

Why did the CFTC abdicate its congressional mandate, pushing a futures broker into the jaws of SIPC where a trustee with no futures experience could rack up exorbitant fees?

Remember that 50 bps RRR cut a week ago which was supposed to telegraph to the market that the PBoC has commenced a monetary easing phase? It appears quite a bit more telegraphing will be needed: unlike in the developed world, where the central banks are entirely in control of capital markets, in China capitalism still has a foothold, however weak, and a result the Shanghai Composite is indicating the direction of where the global economy is truly headed, pro forma for that ridiculous most recent speculation that the US will decouple form something or another.

It looked like S&P had gone off script. They slapped a negative watch on any euro country that didn’t have it already. They even came out with details about which countries faced 1 notch and which faced 2 notches. I’m glad I didn’t have this information on Friday as I wouldn’t have bet we would be up 1.5% on the week given that move. Now, it looks like this move has been incorporated into the plot. It puts added pressure on the countries to come to a “resolution” this weekend. It is being viewed as increasing the likelihood of a deal since the countries all want to avoid the downgrade. If they do reach a deal, then taking them off watch could add to the post photo-op rally.

To bull or not to bull, that is the question...

You better curb that risk Boss, sir, or else... Please!

All you need to read.

While everyone was celebrating "record" black Friday sales, we noted that the bulk of this was due to sales channels taking on negative margins, and due to a "cash for clunkers" like effect in which future sales were pulled forward. Sure enough, we now learn that this is precisely the case, after Reuters reports that "more than a third of U.S. shoppers are already done with most of their holiday shopping, a survey showed on Monday, signaling that retailers need to offer bigger incentives to win sales in the few weeks before Christmas... About 32 percent of people surveyed by America's Research Group said they finished a majority of their Christmas shopping in November. Last month included Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when stores pulled out all the stops on discounts to woo shoppers during their biggest season of the year. More than 6 percent completed most of their holiday shopping in the first weekend of December." In other words so much for holiday shopping as a driver of stocks, as there is no way that the remaining two thirds of shoppers can carry the entire season regardless of what massive discounts retailers provide. This is also quite disturbing for US GDP which relies primarily on PCE as a driver to growth (although when that fails retailers can pretend they are stocking up on inventory), and will likely mean that banks which most recently (as of a week ago), had an upgrade round to Q4 GDP will be forced to promptly cut it back down. Lastly, as Rosenberg noted yesterday, once the bills come in January, that's when the wheels will really come off, just in time for the non-extension in the payroll tax.

Japan will reward investors who buy reconstruction bonds with half an ounce of gold, an added incentive that could boost the return by nearly six times according to Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi. Individual investors who purchase more than 10 million yen ($129,000) in the debt with a 0.05 percent return and keep it for three years will receive a gold commemorative coin weighing 15.6 grams (0.55 ounces), the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today, worth about $948 based on current prices for the precious metal. The offer suggests the return could be boosted to 89,000 yen should gold prices remain at current levels, more than the approximate 15,000 yen one would receive from the bond. The coupon on conventional three-year retail government debt to be sold on Jan. 16 is 0.18 percent. 10 year debt remains near multi record lows of 1%. Silver coins weighing 31.1 grams issued as 1,000 yen currency will be distributed to those who own more than 1 million yen of the bonds, the government said. The coins will be offered for debt going on sale in March. All investors receive a thank-you note from the minister, who showed his to reporters in Tokyo today as proof of his purchase.  Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura also bought the bonds, Azumi said, without saying how much.  This is a sign that the Japanese government like governments internationally is very concerned that they will not be able to sell their government debt.

Following yesterday's announcement that the ECB had purchased a new record total of €207 billion in peripheral bonds, many were focused on today's ECB sterilization announcement to see if, like last week, there would be a failure in the repo market, and less than the full amount of bonds to be sterilized, would be bid. As it happens today the ECB lucked out, after 113 bidders submitted bids for €236 billion in bonds, at a rate of 0.65%, with the threshold €207 billion amount being covered comfortable at 1.19x. Yet one wonders what is it that caused the €50 billion swing in available capital for European banks (last week the tendered for amount was €194 billion). What is ironic is that earlier today, the ECB provided €252 billion in a liquidity providing operation (MRO) to 197 banks at a fixed rate of 1.00%. In other words, banks borrowed €252 billion at 1% from the ECB to lend €207 billion back at 0.65% to the ECB. And that is called a "successful" sterilization.

• Merkel, Sarkozy Unite as S&P Issues Warning (Bloomberg)
• Austerity package key to Italy averting collapse (FT)
• GOP Rejects Democrats' New Payroll-Tax Bill (WSJ)
• Europe can get out of crisis (China Daily)
• Belgium, at Last, Forms Government (WSJ)
• Geithner to Add US Weight to Euro Zone Talks (CNBC)
• Asia Faces ‘Much Greater’ Global Risks: ADB Says (Bloomberg)
• Understanding sectoral balances for the UK (FT)