Archive - Feb 2011

In a report released earlier summarizing the fund's findings from the irrelevant G-20 meeting over the weekend, "Global Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges", the IMF finally acknowledges what pretty much everyone has been warning about for over two years now. Namely: "From an external perspective, however, there is concern that quantitative easing in the United States could result in a flood of capital. In economies where recovery is already well established, policymakers will need to pay increasing attention to building inflationary pressure. Central banks should continue to stand ready to address liquidity problems in the banking sector, particularly in the euro area." Actually the liquidity area that should be addressed is that in the 3rd subbasement of the Marriner Eccles building where the printers work on full blast 24/7. Furthermore, the IMF points out another glaringly obvious factoid of today's global ponzi economy, namely the Chinese property bubble: "Residential real estate prices in some of China's larger cities have risen rapidly since the crisis, spurred initially by stimulative policies aimed at easing restrictions on real estate lending and subsequently by strong income growth, high savings, and limited alternate investment vehicles. While it is difficult to predict how significant the stress from potential property price correction would be, if these risks are realized, there could  potentially be global ramifications." But arguably the most interesting observation in the report is that the ongoing tsunami of Fed-driven food price surges across the world, in most cases leading to outright revolution, will end up being invoiced to... you - dear US taxpayer.

Did Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service say he was providing Al-Qaeda terrorists with "nuclear fissile material" and "biological agents"?

To consistently report an association or group's (whose primary reason for existence is to get people to buy more things) marketing mantra as news and analysis is less than completely accurate, to put it at its most favorable (I had a more direct thought here, but I decided to tone it down). Thus, I query, "When Will the Mainstream Media Be Ready To Call The NAR The Sham That It Really Is?"

Eric Sprott made an appearance at Casey Research Gold and Resource Summit where in addition to providing a succinct summary of all his monthly letters from the past year, whose forecasts are all gradually panning out, he spoke about the prospects for gold, and particularly silver. We will leave it to readers to parse through the brief must watch clip, but here is the punchling for those wondering why increasingly more distributors are reporting indefinite lack of physical silver inventory: "There's $22 billion of silver available in the world, of which the ETFs already own half, and between you guys and us we probably own the other half... Which means there's nothing left."

And so the Illinois pension bomb has been kicked down the street for another few months. The state just priced its delayed $3.7 billion bond courtesy of a plethora of International Wealth Funds. As the WSJ reported earlier "Initial indications on the deal Tuesday showed $6.1 billion in orders, with around a fifth of those coming from international investors, such as sovereign-wealth funds and insurance companies, one market participant said." The use of proceeds, as reported previously, is to fund payments to state employee pension funds. In other words, Illinois pensioners are now on the hook to the periodic generosity of bondholders to make sure there is enough money in the pot to fund their retirement.

Six seconds BiTCHeZ!

A look at a AAA muni.

And so we go from one lunatic to another. In an "exclusive interview" with the FT, Muammar Gadaffi's son, al-Saadi, told the newspaper, whose parent Pearson PLC is 3% owner by the Libyan Sovereign Wealth Fund, "made it clear that he believed any such new regime would still include his father. “My father would stay as the big father who advises,” he told the Financial Times, adding that direct administrative powers should be handed over to a new generation." And further confirming the soon to be deposed ruler's break with reality, were accusations that the reason why the Libyan airforce has been shooting at protestors over the past week, was to protect the country from "thousands of al-Qaeda" infiltrators who had taken over the eastern part of the country. Touching on a topic discussed yesterday, namely that the Gaddafi regime may engage in sabotage against its oil industry, al-Saadi “said that the army would be sent to guard facilities if necessary. The army is still very strong,” he said. “If we hear anything, we will send some battalions. When people see the army, they will be afraid.” In other words, expect to hear news of major disruptions in the country's oil infrastructure which will promptly be blamed on al-Qaeda by the Gaddafis. And going back to reality, we read that the death toll in Libya has surpassed 10,000 people.

The US Treasury completed the latest ponzi shuffling of Treasuries to Primary Dealers (who will shortly send it all back to the Fed, pocketing a few hundred million in bid/ask spreads and commissions in the process), selling $35 billion in 5 Year bonds at a 2.19% high yield, the highest since April 2010. The internals, as has lately been the case, were not pretty. The bid to cover was 2.69 compared to 2.97 previously and 2.76 LTM average. Directs took down just 7.7%, as it now becomes obvious that the "UK" is no longer gobbling up bonds, and we expect the UK-bond build up as per TIC will stop in a month or two tops. Indirects also took down less than average, as foreign banks purchased just 34.2% of the auction, compared to 41.5% on average. Which of course means that PDs had to step into save the day: at 58.2%, PDs took down the highest amount since July 2009. Lastly, the auction prices about 2 bps wide of the when issued. That we could have such a weak auction in a day when risk is surging, is a stunner. Have gold and silver (and the CHF) finally become the widely accepted new risk avoidance products, instead of the USD and the UST? If so, that is a far bigger revolution than anything happening in the Maghreb now.

Remember when all "experts", pundits, and all other idiot verietals couldn't shut up how gold was going to triple digits imminently? Yes, neither do we.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 23/02/11

You really can't make this shit up: "The economy is in a much stronger position to handle” rising oil prices, Tim Geithner said today during a Bloomberg Breakfast in Washington. “Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things." We are, all of us, now doomed.

A Friendly bankster consoles a homeowner who thought was getting a loan modification...

NC-17/WR: Forbidden for those under the age of 17 or for current employees of Waddell and Reed