Archive - Feb 2011

For those wondering why nobody wants to trade ever again on what are now purely legalized fraud markets (and thank god Ze Germans are dumb enough to buy them at any price), here is the reason:

• JPMORGAN RACKS UP THREE PERFECT TRADING QUARTERS IN 2010
• JPMORGAN TRADERS HAD PERFECT SECOND HALF, BANK SAYS
• JPMORGAN TRADERS LOST MONEY 8 DAYS IN 2010, DOWN FROM 42 IN '09

In other words, of 260 trading days in 2010, the firm lost money on 8, or 3.1%. In yet other words, the firm made money 96.9% of the time. We'll repeat that: JPM made money 96.9% of the time.

Konjob Bernankovich...

We give Robert Zoellick 4 to 6 weeks before he follows Axel Weber, Kevin Warsh and the COO of one of the bankrupt GSEs (we forget his name) into the sunset. The reason? After breaking ranks with the Criminal Bank Cartel last year and calling for a return to the gold standard, the president of the World Bank has dared to be the first among the institutional elite to point out that the cotton in the emperor's clothes, were he to be clothed in the first place, would have surged by 100% in less than a year. According to AP: "World Bank President Robert Zoellick says global food prices have hit "dangerous levels" that could contribute to political instability, push millions of people into poverty and raise the cost of groceries." Not to worry. According to Fed VP Christine Cumming who spoke earlier somewhere, rising commodity costs merely indicate "stronger global demand." Oddly enough, it is this supposed demand for products that has forced 44 million people to enter "extreme poverty"... out of their own volition. We are  not sure, but something tells us the Fed's Cumming has a Ph.D.

Forget that the NYSE is being taken over by a German company (sorry guys, nobody is that dumb to buy the bs argument that Fidelity investors, all of whom are "undeniably" American, own both). The biggest nut apparently is the supremely superficial: i.e., what will be the name of the post-merger exchange. No, this is not an Onion summary. And yes, on this issue Chuck Schumer is relentless...

I'm putting together what I see as solutions for the many pricing and valuation problems that I see coming down the pike. If you think real asset markets are a little soft now, wait until rates are controlled more by market forces than by concerted central planning cartels.

Fantasy or comedy? I couldn't decide which way to label the Obama budget, so I went with both. The bottom line is that the Obama administration has brought forth the most unbelievable revenue increase that I have ever seen proposed in a budget, a whopping 65% increase in revenues in just four years, which will - miracle of miracles - drop the deficit as a percent of GDP from nearly 11% to just 3.2% over those same four years. The only problem with this scenario is that it stands virtually no chance of actually happening. Revenue will be far lower than projected and the deficit correspondingly higher.

Since the president's latest Kool Aid, pardon, budget, is making inexplicable waves in the media for some odd reason (why, we wonder - the realized and near-term projected deficit will be revised higher by about 50% within 3-6 months with 100% confidence), here are some additional interactive charts and forensic drill downs to help readers make some sense of the latest plate of steaming lies served piping hot by the propagandura. And no, there is absolutely no chance the deficit will be cut in half by the end of Obama's first term as had been promised at the peak of Obama's popularity.

"I doubt he will be invited back."

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 15/02/11

And the latest confirmation that nothing will ever go wrong again, since if it does it will mean everyone will be TBTF, being on the same side of the sinking ship, comes courtesy of the formerly insolvent bank known as Merrill (and now as taxpayer bailed out Bank of Countrywide Lynch), whose survey of money managers has just found that more are bullish on global stocks than at any time in the history of the survey. As in "ever." "A net 67 percent of respondents, who together manage $569 billion, had an “overweight” position on global equities, the highest level since the survey first asked the question in April 2001. That compares with 55 percent in January and 40 percent in December. Meanwhile, a net 9 percent is “underweight” cash, the lowest allocation since January 2002." Translation: everyone is long stocks. Every "balls to the wall" one. The Bernanke Put has succeeded in eliminating every last drop of risk from the stock market.

"Dear Investors: We continue to be very concerned about systemic risk in the global economy. Thus far, the systemic risk that was prevalent in the global credit markets in 2007 and 2008 has not subsided; rather, it has simply been transferred from the private sector to the public sector. We are currently in the midst of a cyclical upswing driven by the most aggressively pro?cyclical fiscal and monetary policies the world has ever seen. Investors around the world are engaging in an acute and severe cognitive dissonance. They acknowledge that excessive leverage created an asset bubble of generational proportions, but they do everything possible to prevent rational deleveraging. Interestingly, equities continue to march higher in the face of European sovereign spreads remaining near their widest levels since the crisis began. It is eerily similar to July 2007, when equities continued higher as credit markets began to collapse. This letter outlines the major systemic fault lines which we believe all investors should consider." Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital

The general public had stocks foisted on them in the 80s with the introduction of stock-based retirement plans (401ks and IRAs). They became further enamored by this asset class with the creation of online discount brokerages, which seduced the DIY spirit. Stocks have become so popular that there are entire peripheral industries have been built surrounding them: investing books, investing seminars, investing TV shows, etc. And yet no one has ever asked whether investing in stocks is actually a good thing.

The wheels fall off the global "recovery," the emerging market equity bubbles, oil, China's equities and its property bubble, and most if not all commodities. Gold and silver swoon as per late 2008 as raising cash become paramount. Oil retraces to the $40/barrel level, and then drops further as exporters ramp up their exports to generate desperately needed cash. Interest rates rise sharply, risk assets tank, borrowing dries up, housing prices "slip" to new lows (the stick-slip phenomenon), and the hated/loathed U.S. dollar confounds almost everyone by breaking out of technical resistance levels. Civil disorder spreads along with recession and lower energy prices, which devastate oil exporters' primary source of government revenues. With better grain harvests stemming from improved weather, declining meat consumption in 2012 due to recession and the implosion of the market for corn ethanol, grain prices plummet, wiping out all the speculators who reckoned 2010 had set the trend for the decade. All of this starts slowly in Q3 2011 but gathers momentum in 2012.

There is little that can be said about the December TIC data, as all the same (troubling) trends continue. In summary, net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $76.8 billion.
Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $66.3 billion,
and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $10.5 billion. The bulk of purchases was Treasurys at $54.6 billion, and $10.2 billion in corporte stocks (a fourth straight monthly decline), with token purchases of both Mortgages and Corporate bonds. Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been $41.8 billion. Yet the most notable data continues to be the interplay between the formerly largest holder of debt (soon to be third), and that locus for bond laundering- the UK. Total Chinese holdings declined by $4 billion, as a result of $9.4 billion in Short-Term debt declines, offset by Long-Term purchases. China continues to dump agency securities like there is no tomorrow, and December is the 6th month in a row in which China has seen its agency holdings decline, but that should come as no surprise to anyone: after all they made it somewhat clear they are on the verge of liquidating the bulk of their GSE holdings recently. On the other hand, the "UK", which is either the Fed's "direct bidder" bond bonzi scheme, Chinese indirect purchases, or recycled petrodollars, just can't get enough of US debt: in December UK holdings increased by $30 billion. It has gotten so bad, that at $541 billion the "UK" is now just $350 billion away from China's total holdings ($892 billion). And Japan is now just $8 billion behind China in total US debt holdings! Of course none of this matters: The Fed will soon be more than double the next two holders (China and Japan) combined, with all the interest collected on the Fed's debt to be promptly converted to Treasury "revenues."

Fed boss Ben Bernanke is the most dangerous human on earth, far more dangerous than Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s 30-year dictator, ever was. Bernanke rules a monetary dictatorship that will trigger the coming third meltdown of the 21st century. But this reign of economic terror will end. Just as Mubarak was blind to the economic needs of the masses and democratic reforms, Bernanke is blind to the easy-money legacy that’s set the stage for revolution, turning the rich into super rich while the middle class stagnates and peanuts trickle down to the poor. Warning, Egypt also had a huge wealth gap before its revolution. Bernanke is the final egomaniac in America’s bubbling 30-year wealth gap, where the top 1% went from owning 9% of America’s wealth to owning 23% during this dictatorship.