Archive - Mar 25, 2011

Today's final Q4 GDP revision indicated a 3.1% annualized rate of pick up in the economy, modestly higher from the previous print of 2.8% and in line with expectations of a 3.0% reading. Of course, it being almost April 2011, this number is by now completely irrelevant. Nonetheless, here are the components that contributed to the difference: "The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased." As the chart below shows, once again Inventories was the swing factor, which detracted 3.42% from Q4 GDP as opposed to 3.7% in the prior two GDP estimates. As Q1 2011 GDP data starts coming out, we are confident inventories will once again be a contributor to GDP "growth" as this most hollow indicator of economic improvement needs to pick up the slack for declining PCE and trade balance contributions.

And another major hit for all those still unlucky enough to own Portuguese bonds: "Following S&P's lowering of its sovereign credit ratings on Portugal to BBB on Friday 25 March 2011, RepoClear participants are advised that with effect from Monday 27 March 2011 Portuguese Government bonds will no longer be eligible for delivery in any of the RepoClear €GC Baskets. Until today’s downgrade Portugal had been eligible for the single A €GC Basket." Luckily, Portuguese bonds are still eligible for trading on OTC/Bulletin Boards, where the bid/ask will soon be greater than the actual bonds price.

Markets positive again this morning amid better than expected corporate profits while the debt crisis in Europe intensifies. The Fed announced yesterday that Bernanke will hold four press briefings a year to improve transparency and explain its decisions to the public. The first two sessions will be in April and June and will likely focus on providing clarity on QE2. Today will see the release of GDP estimated at 3.0% QoQ v 2.8% prior. German pressure pushed EU leaders to cut the amount of initial startup capital for the EFSF/ESM in 2013 from €40B to €16B, reducing Germany’s burden in the rescue mechanism. S&P downgraded Portugal two notches to BBB and left the country on negative watch. Fitch downgraded two notches to A- also leaving the rating on negative watch.

In today's NYT, in a surprising critique of the company that is the right arm of Obama's administration, there is finally an extensive focus piece on how GE, which made $14.2 billion in 2010 ($5.1 billion of which came from the US), paid, wait for it, zero taxes in 2010. NYT summarizes this odd quandary as follows: "Its extraordinary success is based on an aggressive strategy that mixes fierce lobbying for tax breaks and innovative accounting that enables it to concentrate its profits offshore. G.E.’s giant tax department, led by a bow-tied former Treasury  official named John Samuels, is often referred to as the world’s best tax law firm. Indeed, the company’s slogan “Imagination at Work” fits this department well. The team includes former officials not just from the Treasury, but also from the I.R.S. and virtually all the tax-writing committees in Congress." In fact, it is far, far worse. As Zero Hedge disclosed, when we looked at GE's tax allergy six months ahead of the NYT, or as early as October 2010, we observed that "between 2002 and 2009, during which timeframe the firm made a generous
$164.4 billion in pretax net income (not to mention $639 billion in domestic revenue, just over half of total revenues of $1.2 trillion) it paid only $5 billion in domestic current taxes, or a 3.17% tax rate!" In other words, GE has now made over $700 billion in domestic revenues, and has paid $5 billion in the period 2002-2010. Truly tax evasion Imagination at Work.

While Zero Hedge readers have long known about the eerie phenomenon known as China's ghost cities (and ghost malls), Australia's SBS' Dateline has done a terrific documentary on the topic of "64 million empty apartments in China." As each passing day brings more confirmation that not only is China's real estate market one massive bubble, but it is also, as expected, completely hollow, both literally and metaphorically. The full brief clip is a must watch for all those who wonder how central planning manages to hit its goal-seeked and manipulated GDP number each and every quarter .We are surprised that in keeping with the Japanese earthquake economic miracle, China has not destroyed the vacant city yet only to rebuild it immediately.

Goldman provides a brief summary of the ongoing irrelevant EU summit (as discussed yesterday, with Portugal in flux no decision can be enacted for at least two months, or long after Portugal is declared technically insolvent). More important is keeping a track of picking up German regional elections which this weekend include Rhineland-Palantine and Baden Württember. As Dirk Schumacher says: "Although a change in government in BW would have no immediate
consequences for the ruling coalition in Berlin, it would be a heavy
blow in political terms nonetheless."

Some irrelevant data again today (at this point the market will continue going up irrelevant of news, until it doesn't): final GDP, Fed speeches, Consumer sentiment and more.

The latest development in the Fukushima saga is probably one of the more ominous to date. Yomiuri reports that radioactive Zirconium 95 has been found after samples were taken near the water outlet. Google translated: "Zirconium is used for nuclear fuel cladding, the cladding melts some of the spent nuclear fuel was hot cooling water is lost, possibly mixed with sea water flowing into the large drainage There. TEPCO am on March 23, collected about 330 m south from the water at the point of outlet. Zirconium-95 concentration was 0.23 becquerels per cubic centimeter. Atomic Energy Research Institute of Kinki Sugiyama Wataru teachers (of nuclear safety), "The evidence that melting in the heat of the fuel cladding, said first find. Will come from a spent fuel storage pool at," he said." Shortly thereafter NHK spokesman admitted that this is why large amounts of radiation are leaking into the environment, making attempts to control the situation 'very challenging'. If indeed the fuel rod zirconium casing is coming off, it means that the risk for recriticality could be increasing.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 25/03/11

EURGBP has exploded into the strong long zone with almost 70% of retail traders short after UK Retail Sales data yesterday. AUDUSD is back in the long zone and EURUSD is holding its ground in the long zone. USDCAD after a brief dip in the short zone is now back in the strong short zone. The German Ifo Business Climate is the main retail position moving event of the day.