Archive - Mar 30, 2011

In news that should move the precious metals market, we learn that the world's third largest producer of silver (as well as zinc and lead) has announced its production is now totally paralyzed. From Reuters: "A week-old strike at Bolivia's San Cristobal mine has totally paralyzed production and exports of silver, zinc and lead, a union leader said on Wednesday. San Cristobal is the world's third-largest producer of silver and the sixth-largest producer of zinc, according to Japan's Sumitomo Corp, which owns the mine." For those who recall basic central planning economics this means that silver should plunge immediately, and should react even more adversely on news that crude supplies in the US are surging. After all, oil supply demand is far more critical to silver price discovery than the actual supply of a metal that unlike gold, is used in various industrial and peacebringing applications (see Operation Odyssey Dawn).

Remember Fukushima?

• IAEA SAYS `THERE MIGHT BE RE-CRITICALITY' AT FUKUSHIMA
• IAEA COMMENTS AT PRESS CONFERENCE IN VIENNA
• IAEA DIRECTOR GENERAL YUKIYA AMANO SPEAKS AT BRIEFING IN VIENNA
• IAEA HAS NO INFORMATION FROM TEPCO ON NEUTRON DETECTORS

If indeed the reactor has gone critical again, the whole concrete dome idea may have to be promptly scrapped.

Not a birthday, a payday.

The president is due to address America's energy "security" any minute now. We wonder if he will address the fact that OPEC is set for a bumper export year, generating profits of over $1 trillion for the first time ever. Of course, that is money that will have to be recycled back into US bonds so it is bullish.

Longtime readers will recall that we've had several conversations here regarding the impact that the Fed's quantitative easing policy is having on the costs of everyday food items. Soaring prices of agricultural commodities are going to continue to have a devastating effect on the purchasing power of average Americans and consumers around the globe. Since prices have now recovered some from the selloffs after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and since there is no end in sight to QE, I thought it was time to once again take a look at out favorite commodities and assess where their prices may be headed over the spring and summer.

Exhibit A in Efficient Market Theory. A few minutes ago the DOE released its crude oil inventory data for the Week of March 25. With Crude inventories expected to decline from 2,131K to 1,500K (you know the whole economic improvement thing and what not), instead we got a build to 2,945K, with Cushing surging from 177K to 1,689K. What would one expect should get killed on this data? Oil right? Yet below we get a glimpse of what mega leveraged and ultra trigger finger happy correlation desks trade like these days.

While many commodities are experiencing a long-overdue correction as the inflation trade takes a breather, lean hogs continues to surge higher, and at last check were just off record highs. Which is why many are following the presentation the company is currently conducting at the JP Morgan global protein conference to get a sense of whether consumers are finally balking at protein purchases. Apparently the answer is no. As Reuters reports, "U.S. consumers have not yet slowed purchases of pork at grocery stores and casual dining restaurants despite this year's much higher prices, U.S. pork producer Smithfield Foods Inc said Wednesday." And why should they: with millions living mortgage free, since the average mortgage delinquency length is now 537 days, that many more people can afford it, and everything else, at virtually any price. Ironically the Fed, by indirectly cutting out on this key expense (not to mention the FASB's ongoing MTM freeze which permits banks to mark mortgages, even delinquent ones, at whatever price they want) is allowing the population to experience an effect comparable to wage growth. Which is one of the key aspect ignored by the media and those who perceive deflation as imminent: while wage growth is surely a key component to stimulating pernicious inflation, eliminating key consumer overhead ends up having the same net effect. And since banks are in no rush to kick squatters out, expect to see increasing price pressure not only on pork but on all other commodities too.

Reuters reports that just as Zero Hedge has been expecting as along, global economic growth is starting to slow. According to a leaked copy of the World Economic Outlook report coming out shortly:

• US GDP growth has been cut to 2.8% from 3.0% in 2011; while 2012 (which will be cut at a later date) was raised to 2.9% from 2.7%.
• Japan 2011 GDP cut to 1.4% from 1.6%, 2012 to 2.1% from 1.8% (same as above)
• Euro zone 2011 GDP raised to 1.6% from 1.5% in 2011; 2012 raised to 1.8% from 1.7% - good luck with this one.
• China 2011 GDP remains at 9.6%, slowing to 9.5% in 2012

Something remarkable happened to property taxes in the U.S. while housing lost 31% of its value from 2006 to 2009: they went up by $100 billion (27%). Equally remarkably, as we can see from this U.S. Census Bureau data on state and local tax revenues, property taxes went up even when housing slumped in the early 1990s. So though U.S. housing continues losing value--U.S. home prices declined in January, continuing a downward trend that began in August, with average U.S. home prices retreating to summer 2003 levels, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes--property tax revenues continue their inexorable rise. So even as the net worth of property has fallen by a third, the property taxes collected from the owners have risen 27%. Exhibit A in this ceaseless rise of property tax revenues is the structural shortfalls in state and local government budgets between what was promised to various fiefdoms and constituencies at the apex of various bubbles, and what is sustainable in non-bubble times.

With all the recent excitement in Japan, some may have forgotten that the entire MENA region is currently experiencing a historic, and in many cases very violent, revolution. Conveniently, Emad Mostaquew of Religãre Capital Market has shared an extended overview of the current snapshot in the Middle East and North Africa region. Of particular note is the section on Yemen. As was disclosed yesterday it now appears that the US is directly funding "flickers" of Al Qaeda in Libya, and possibly will be arming such factions in the future, it now appears that Yemen's internal response to instability will also gravitate around the Al Qaeda strawman: "After several prominent defections following the death of 52 protestors at the hands of government snipers, President Saleh began negotiations to step down. This appears to have been a ruse to gauge opposition strength and once he was offered a host of concessions to leave, he withdrew his offer, using the time to solidify ties with key tribes. Saleh’s key tactic has been to emphasize the chaos that would follow his departure, with Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) central to US and Saudi concerns. To play on these fears, security forces have been pulled from key governorates, which are now no longer under government control and have been releasing rebel leaders." Then again, perhaps judging by recent developments in Libya, the US may not be all that concerned about Al Qaeda after all. Much more in the full report below.

One can be rest assured those Irish haircuts are coming. Will the other indebted EU nations just sit back as Ireland clips its debt without following suit? Doubtful! Remember, I have been warning of this event for over a year, and the daisy chain effect is still being ignored.

Want a cheap undated put on oil? A Darwinian thinning out has taken place over the last 30 years, while management has learned to make this worst nightmare of an industry efficient. The top four airlines now control 75% of the US market. The industry has fewer seats than in 1982; while inflation adjusted fares are down 40%. When was the last time you saw an empty seat on a plane? (AA), (LUV).

• Greenspan Op-Ed: Dodd-Frank fails to meet test of our times (FT)
• The ‘Grand Bargain’ is Just a Start (Martin Wolf)
• Parts Shortages Spread to Japanese Operations in U.S. (WSJ)
• Osborne Insists Plan B Will Mean Higher Rates (Independent)
• Apollo Global Raises $565.4 Million in Expanded Share Offering (Bloomberg)
• Summit Swings Behind Libyan Rebels  (FT)
• Are commodity prices peaking? (MarketWatch)
• Merkel Faces Pressure on Euro, Taxes (WSJ)
• Inflation Comes at Us Like a Knuckleball (Mike Pento)

And so the GDP revisions start coming fast and furious. Following repeated warnings from Goldman (which also modestly cut its GDP forecast), implying that the only firm that matters is about to cut GDP across the board, Fed "Expert Network" Macroeconomic Advisers, headed by the inimitable Larry Meyer, has decided to provide value to its client(s) and slash Q1 GDP from 4% to 2.3%. This means that Joe LaVorgna is furiously coming up with scenarios that blame everything from snow to gamma rays to the dog eating his excel spreadsheets for why he is about to trim his permabullish outlook.