Archive - Mar 2011

James Montier, formerly at SocGen, and now at GMO, has released his latest white paper which shares his seven "immutable" laws of investing which are as follows: 1. Always insist on a margin of safety; 2. This time is never different; 3. Be patient and wait for the fat pitch; 4. Be contrarian; 5. Risk is the permanent loss of capital, never a number; 6. Be leery of leverage; 7. Never invest in something you don’t understand. Of course, these are nothing new to anyone who trades on anything besides simple momentum (a strategy which always inevitably leads in massive capital loss). Yet the one observation we are delighted to read in Montier's letter is his relentless bashing of all pundits who claims that when bonds are unattractive one should buy stocks (that would be everyone on CNBC among others). His explanation "One of the “arguments” for owning equities that we regularly encounter is the idea that one should hold equities because bonds are so unattractive. I’ve described this as the ugly stepsisters’ problem because it is akin to being presented with two ugly stepsisters and being forced to date one of them. Not a choice many would relish. Personally, I’d rather wait for Cinderella to come along. Of course, the argument to buy stocks because bonds are appalling is really just a version of the so-called Fed Model. This approach is fl awed at just about every turn. It fails at the level of theoretical soundness as it compares real assets with nominal assets. It fails empirically as it simply doesn’t work when attempting to predict long-run returns (never an appealing trait in a model). Moreover, proponents of the Fed Model often fail to remember that a relative valuation approach is a spread position. That is to say that if the Model says equities are cheap relative to bonds, it doesn’t imply that one should buy equities outright, but rather that one should short bonds and go long equities. So the Model could well be saying that bonds are expensive rather than that equities are cheap! The  Fed Model doesn’t work and should remain on the ash heap." Alas, with "career risk" the one and only factor that matters, nobody will likely read let alone take these rules seriously until it is once again too late.

Just like the ole Stalinist show trials?

With the enactment of a no-fly zone over Libya now a matter of days, despite all the rhetoric otherwise, the question becomes what the implications of such an escalation in military activity would be. Stratfor provides one perspective on this development: unlike conventional wisdom that this would lead to brisk and clinical institution of supremacy, Stratfor believes it could actually backfire: "The idea that this would be a quick, surgical and short-term invasion is certainly one scenario, but it is neither certain nor even the most likely scenario. In the same sense, the casualties caused by the no-fly zone would be unknown. The difference is that while a no-fly zone could be terminated easily, it is unlikely that it would have any impact on ground operations. An invasion would certainly have a substantial impact but would not be terminable. Stopping a civil war is viable if it can be done without increasing casualties beyond what they might be if the war ran its course. The no-fly zone likely does that, without ending the civil war. If properly resourced, the invasion option could end the civil war, but it opens the door to extended low-intensity conflict." Either way, the military outcome is by now likely predetermined, and is a function only of ongoing actions by the now supremely irrational Gaddafi. All we can do is sit back and watch.

Do you know how they plan to solve the MERS conundrum/ClusterFUBAR?

The conflict in North Africa was a predictable outcome of the US Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing. It is not plausible that the US Federal Reserve, as the manager of the world's Reserve Currency, did not fully recognize the global ramifications of such monetary inflation actions well in advance. Quantitative Easing like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of the cold war era has had the same devastating pre-emptive impact on Libya. There can also be little doubt that the bi-monthly meetings of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) board of directors, which specifically meet to discuss coordinated monetary policy outcomes, did not consider this eventuality. The board of directors of this global power center includes all G7 Central Banks chiefs, with the conspicuous absence of a single member of the Arab League not receiving US military financial aid. Our Process of Abstraction research methodology (shown below) has been signaling looming political conflict and social tensions for eighteen months. Our Tipping Points have proven once again to be surprisingly accurate predictors. Though Tunisia as an initial flash point was somewhat of a surprise, we knew it was going to soon emerge somewhere due to serious inflationary pressures injected into the global macro. As we will discuss, it is a direct result of the US policy of Quantitative Easing (QE) igniting global inflation in food and basic resources of survival. The social unrest this triggers is still in the early stages of what we call the "Age of Rage".

As the Russell 2000 index, better known to the Chairsatan as the US economy, surges on no news, except of course for the huge, massive 0.5% drop in the WTI, demonstrations in Iran are once again front and center, except in the US media, which deems it irrelevant to report on what is happening away from the NYSE Borse. From JPost: "Heavy police presence reported in Tehran; dozens of women rounded up, beaten in Khartoum while attempting to stage anti-rape protest." Being that it is international women's day, one can see why even Iranian women believe that something like rape may be a little anachronistic. Alas, the Tehran police did not take too kindly to these ridiculous demands for equal treatment, as the clip below shows.

Today's $32 billion 3 Year auction closed at a 1.298% high yield: a slight decline from last month's 1.349%, which coupled with the pick up in the Bid To Cover from 3.013 to 3.219, explains why the auction prices inside of the WI at around 1.305%. Overall, Primary Dealers and Directs once again were responsible for two thirds of the auction, with just 34.4% going to Indirects, which nonetheless was an improvement from February's 27.6% which was the lowest since 2006. It seems foreigners are willing to purchase a little more bonds than recently, although this was still well off the LTM average of 34.4%. Following in the model of last month's 7 Year auction, we expect Primary Dealers to flip at least 50% of today's take down within 3 weeks back to Fed, as the check kiting game continues with absolutely no supervision from the Fed (which explains the low hit rate of 22.9% for the PD bid).

"It does not get any clearer which way Wall Street is trying to take oil," says Stephen Schork. The Schork Report notes that speculators now own nearly six times as many barrels of oil... as can be stored at the WTI trading hub in Cushing, Okla.

Following the earlier news that Facebook is now entering the virtually no barriers to entry market of content streaming, Goldman has just released a note that will make even more of the longs very to quite very nervous. "on a longer-term basis, we think that Facebook could become a credible threat as its video business evolves for three reasons: (1) Facebook has more than 500 mn active users, 50% of which log on to Facebook in any given day, according to its website, which compares with Netflix’s 20 mn subscribers; (2) We believe that the “wisdom of friends” could be a bigger driver of movie viewership than the “wisdom of crowds”; and (3) We believe that many of the issues outlined above could be fixed over time, including the gap to the living room TV."

Speculation in oil futures is absolutely rampant.

So far religion was luckily very much removed from the MENA revolutions. If this Al Jazeera update is to be believed, that is no longer the case. And as everyone knows, the biggest threat in the Muslim crescent is religious warfare, which would immediately bring up questions of how long before Israel is involved. More as we see it.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 08/03/11

And Americans are complaining at an average gas price in the mid $3 range. In Europe, gasoline has just hit an all time record of $8.632 per gallon! As HLN.be reports: "tomorrow the price of gas will reach an absolute record. Petrol 95 can hit €1.624 per litre. This breaks the 2008 record of €1.61 per liter." Translated into American this means that a gallon of gas in Europe is now an unprecedented $8.632 per gallon, which will certainly result in Europe literally and metaphorically grinding to a halt.

In David Greely's note which we noted earlier, in addition to debunking speculation that OPEC has much if any spare excess capacity, confirming Jim Rogers' point from a week earlier, he observes that more than half of the country's oil infrastructure may already be in the hands of rebels. Whether this will merely reinforce Gaddafi's resolve to let everything burn in his wake is still unknown - repeated rumors that he is seeking to hand over power peacefully have so far been squashed, as the offensive against rebels accelerates. In the meantime Reuters reports that European oil imports are about to get very complicated, making life for Italy, which is most reliant on Libyan oil, quite complicated: "Libyan oil trade has been paralysed as banks decline to clear payments in dollars due to U.S. sanctions, trading sources told Reuters on Tuesday. The move follows a decision by major U.S. oil firms to halt trade with Libya and will complicate deals for European firms to buy Libyan oil. Around half of Libya's oil output, or more than 1 percent of global supply, has already been choked off by lethal clashes between rebels and forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. . Oil prices hit their highest levels since September 2008 on Monday." We anticipate that NATO forces with GCC backing, will find a way to institute a no fly zone to prevent an all out "Saddam" response which could see all the oil holdings in rebel hands be destroyed in retribution by the Gaddafi regime, which we are skeptical will result in dropping oil prices.

When the Treasury issued $29 billion in 7 Year bonds (CUSIP: 912828PY0) thirteen days ago, in an auction which we described as "unremarkable", the Primary Dealers took down $13.9 billion of the total issue, or 45.9% of the entire issue. Fast forward to today's POMO, which just concluded, and we learn that the Fed monetized $7.657 billion in bonds maturing between 09/30/2016 -
02/28/2018, or a 3.85 Submitted to Accepted ratio. As usual the internals are what matter. A quick scan shows that PDs could barely wait two weeks before they flipped more than half, or 53% of the full take down, right back to the monetizing hands of Brian Sack: 92.8% of the entire POMO consisted of just one issue - the just issued PY0 from last week. And so the shell game continues, especially since the interest paid on this $7.657 billion to the new holder, the Federal Reserve, will promptly be remitted back to the Treasury to be counted as revenue.