Archive - Apr 2011

Following the bad idiot move by the S&P earlier, here comes the good idiot. Per Moody's: "Moody's Maintain Top US Rating, Outlook Positive." In other news, Mark Zandi is violently and uncontrollably dry heaving in a corner somewher, wondering why, oh why, is it so difficult to get Tim Geithner's job.

Following the S&P news, oddly enough, one is not seeing a flight to safety away from US paper and into Greek. In fact, observing the absolutely record 20% yield print on the 2 Year Greek bond, one may be excused to speculate that the inverse is happening. Also, with the cash price of the 2 Year now at 20% and the prices of longer duration bonds in the 60s, there is now no reason to actually restructure the country: bonds have it pretty much fully priced in. After all, the Santorini liquidation value should be worth at least 20-30 cents on the bond dollar, er, euro.

As if the implied US downgrade was not bad enough for ostritches whose heads are infatuated with sand, here comes JPM's Lawrence Eagles destroying the myth about crude demand destruction, so aggresively spun by a flaiiling Saudi Arabia which can not afford to admit that the only reason it can not hike production is because it is already at capacity. From JPM: "Our refinery activity projections show that crude throughput (demand
for crude) will rise by at least 2.7 mbd between now and August, and
will need to be much higher to avoid a steep second half 2011 product
stock draw. Minister al-Naimi’s comments imply OPEC March production
at below 28.4 mbd, and thus a steep increase in supply will be needed
over the coming months to meet our estimated 29.7 mbd call on OPEC in
3Q11. The reality is that following a supply shock, the oil market can
sometimes need wider than normal differentials to trigger the economic
adjustments. If supplies are not increased decisively for June liftings be prepared for price spikes over $130/bbl." Translation: $5 gas average prices are now virtually an inevitability.

The Rate Storm that I have been preaching about is nigh upon us. Greece and the US today, who the hell knows tomorrow.

The Treasury's prepared statement is out 25 minutes following the S&P planned downgrade, which only those who don't get inside information were surprised by.

• US Treasury's Miller says S&P negative outlook underestimates ability of US leaders to come together to deal with US fiscal challenges
• Both political parties now agree it is time to begin bringing down deficits as a share of GDP.
• US economy is strengthening as it emerges from recent recession.

But the comment of the day comes from Hugh Johnson (no seriously): "This is tape bomb. It doesn't come as a complete surprise to the markets however seeing it in black and white print it is going to shake the market up for sure. You see the dollar down a bit, gold getting bid...and a break of 1298 on the S&P could send it to 1285 in the course of the week."

Who would have thunk that the one beneficiary of an insolvent US (with both bonds and stock futures plunging) would be gold. Oh wait...

The negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our long-term rating on the U.S. within two years. The outlook reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will persist until at least after national elections in 2012. Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary consolidation program--containing deficit reduction measures in amounts near those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower the rating.

In a very unstunning development which would expose all those Greek and EU proclamations about a solvent Greece for another relentless barrage of lies, it appears that Germany is now resolved to not only restructuring Greece (and with certain Greek bonds trading around 60 the market has effectively thrown in the towel), but has provided a timeframe in which this should occur: "German government sources said on Monday Greece will likely restructure its sovereign debt before the end of summer, putting a time frame to recent speculation that sent the euro to its lowest in two weeks. "Decisive voices within the federal government expect that Greece will not make it through the summer without a restructuring," one high-ranking coalition source told Reuters. "That does not mean that the federal government is striving for (a restructuring) but such a step will probably not be avoidable," he added, echoing views from other coalition sources." Supposedly the thinking in Europe is that banks should have built up a sufficiently large capital buffer to where the permanent impairment of Greek senior debt will not lead to another bank run. The question however is how well has Europe considered any other unpredictable consequences, which by definition, are "unpredictable." Recall that the financial system nearly ended after the Lehman bankruptcy following the freeze in money markets: a side effect that nobody had expected at the time. What will happen this time around when Greece becomes the first "Lehman" in the sovereign realm, and just how many trillions will have to be invested to undo "unforeseen" consequences?

• Debt Ceiling Increase Is Expected, Geithner Says (NYT)
• Zhou Pledges More Tightening as China Raises Reserve Ratios (Bloomberg)
• Fed to Signal End of Monetary Easing (FT)
• Finnish Populist Party Surge Clouds EU Bailout (Reuters)
• Glencore worth up to $69 billion (Reuters)
• Libyan Rebels Gain Ground in Fierce Fight (WSJ)
• Capitalism is failing the middle class (Reuters)
• Inflation in China Poses Big Threat to Global Trade (NYT)

Summary of results:

• Citi Q1 revenue USD 19.7bln vs. Exp. USD 20.54bln; this is a whopping $5.7 billion drop from the $25.4 billion in Q1 2010. So much for revenue growth.
• Q1 EPS USD 0.10 vs. Exp. USD 0.09
• Q1 tier 1 capital ratio 13.3%
• Q1 tier 1 common equity ratio 11.3%
• Q1 net credit losses declined 25%
• Q1 Loan Loss Allowance drops to $36.6 billion from $48.7 billion year over year.
• Total deposits $865.9 billion compared $827.9 billion a year prior
  
• And the kicker: Q1 reserve release was $(3.37) billion on $4.2 billion profit from continuing operations. In other words, absent accounting gimmickry the company would barely have been profitable
  

You got to know when to HoLDER 'em, know when to fold 'em-Know when to walk away and know when to run--You never count your bailout loot when you're sittin' at the table--There'll be time enough for countin' when the shitty dealing's done

Europe is not the entity facing a funding crunch this morning. Just out from Reuters:

• LIBYAN REBELS UNLIKELY TO EXPORT MORE CRUDE UNTIL PRODUCTION RESUMES - OIL OFFICIAL

Which means that Gaddafi has now managed to isolate and send the Libyan rebellion, armed with a central bank before they even had a constitution, on the road to insolvency. Which also means that should CIA efforts wish to be successful, especially in light of recent inability by NATO to continue the air superiority campaign due to lack of munitions, America will have no choice but to either directly provide funding to rebels, or puts marines directly on the ground: both moves which will likely not do much for the president's popularity rating.

As part of the broadly bipolar risk [ON|OFF] market stampede, Spain probably could have picked a better day to attempt to sell €4.7 billion in bills than just after the weekend when the market realized there is no way out for Greece than default. Alas, it did not, and the result was not pretty. Per Reuters: "Spain paid substantially more to issue 12- and 18-month Treasury bills on Monday compared with last month as uncertainty hovered over a Portuguese bailout and speculation intensified about Greek debt restructuring. The sale was at the low end of the Treasury's target range of 4.5 billion to 5.5 billion euros ($6.51 billion-$7.95 billion) and comes ahead of a closely watched long-term debt auction on Wednesday of bonds maturing in 2021 and 2024." Specifically, the Spanish Treasury was forced to pay 2.77% for its €3.5 billion 12 month Bill, 64 bps more than the 2.128% paid in a comparable auction in March, and making matters worse was a tumble in the bid to cover from 2.4 to 1.6. The weakness was mirrored in the auction of €1.2 billion in 18 month notes, which priced at 3.364%, up 93 bps from last month, with the BTC tumbling from 3.5 to 2.0. And one can wonder what the outcome would have been had the Fed or other central banks not been selling puts on the Spanish curve (because if he is doing it off the balance sheet in the US, there is nothing really preventing Bernanke from taking his curve manipulation tour global). And yes: Spain is next. "Investors are turning their attention to Spain as the next weakest link in the euro zone chain after Portugal said it would seek aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the third to fall after Ireland and Greece."

Homebuilder sentiment and a few speeches from Fed officials. In general week to be quiet as market begins holiday wind-down.