Archive - Apr 2011

With just 72 hours left until a possible government shutdown, everyone will be following each and every take from the DC soap opera over the next three days with great interest. As such, here is a summary of today's key events in DC via Goldman's Alec Phillips. "All eyes on fiscal issues today. Yesterday, the consensus regarding budget negotiations seemed to have swung from viewing a shutdown as a clear risk to now viewing it as the most likely outcome (though still very uncertain). That said, talks will continue, in an effort to close the gap between positions on proposed spending cuts. House Speaker Boehner is reported to have proposed cutting $40bn from current levels versus the $33bn compromise floated last week, which if nothing else indicates that the gap between the parties amounts to a few billion dollars, and there is still a possibility of another very short-term extension of spending authority."

With everyone offering some version of a US budget, one more ridiculous than the other, one thing is certain: nobody has any clue how to fix America's fiscal catastrophe. And while the biggest soap opera rages in D.C. Larry Kotlikoff, who recently served as the only rational contributor to the just released IMF what paper "An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?" summarizes the "progress" so far: "The two parties are having a heated debate over the Republican plan to slice $61 billion off Uncle Sam’s projected $3.6 trillion budget. If the Republicans get their way, the deficit will fall from 9.5 percent of gross domestic product to 9.1 percent. If they don’t, they’ll probably shut the government for a couple of days. Then they’ll compromise on, say, a $40 billion budget cut, having proved they gave it their best shot." And sick of the corrupt petulance in DC, Kotlikoff has decided to propose his own budget. " I launched www.thepurplehealthplan.org last week
to solicit endorsements for what I call the Purple Health Plan -
- a proposal that offers common ground to both Republicans and
Democrats. To date, five Nobel laureates in economics, George Akerlof, Edmund Phelps, Thomas Schelling, Vernon Smith and
William Sharpe, have signed on. So have other prominent
economists." We have not read it but fail to see how it can be possibly worse, especially since one Paul Krugman has not endorsed said plan.

• More from the Oracle: Central Banks Grapple With Competing Forces (Hilsenrath)
• U.S. Sees Array of New Threats at Japan’s Nuclear Plant (NYT)
• China’s Rate Tightening Threatens Copper (FT)
• Fed’s Biggest Foreign-Bank Bailout Saved U.S. Muni Bonds (Bloomberg)
• NATO Blamed as Libyan Rebels Flee Assault By Qaddafi Forces (Bloomberg)
• Government Shutdown Looms Despite Obama's Intervention (Reuters)
• Another "brilliant" HFT "fix": SEC Unveils 'Limit' Curbs to Prevent 'Flash Crash' (WSJ)
• Ouattara forces storm Gbagbo bunker in Ivory Coast (Reuters)
• U.S. Fiscal Crisis in Spitting Distance (Laurence Kotlikoff)

Stagflation: meet economic collapse. The UK basket case is getting very, very ugly, with today's obliteration of Industrial Production putting in doubt expectations of a BOE hike. From AP: "British industrial production fell 1.2 percent in February from
January, an official report said Wednesday, marking the largest monthly
fall since August 2009 and far worse than analyst expectations for an
increase of 0.2 percent. The Office for National Statistics said a
7.8 percent drop in oil and gas extraction was the main reason for the
fall, while the manufacturing sector was flat." And the winner: "It may be that the industrial recovery is past its peak," said Samuel Tombs, U.K. economist at Capital Economics. Industrial production accounts for 17 percent of British GDP." That's the bad news; the good news is that with runaway inflation which is now surging at 5%+ the economy has got to be improving: after all where would all this demand be coming from if not from some massive latent recovery. Oh wait, what's that you say: endless liquidity? You don't say. Well, never mind then. In other news GBP crosses get obliterated as rate hike expectations are put on hold. In fact what you can put on the front burner is more money printing, both at the BOE and the Fed because central banks are so much more adept at "controlling" inflation than deflation.

In trading in London this morning, gold reached a new record nominal high ($1,459.07) and silver a new 31 year nominal high ($39.50) as investors bought the precious metals to hedge deepening sovereign debt risk (in the EU but also in the US with the threat of a federal budget shutdown), geopolitical risk and deepening inflation. Brent crude reached $123.00 a barrel this morning and looks set to challenge the high seen in July 2008 of $145.49. Anemic economic growth, extremely loose monetary policies, sovereign debt risk, geopolitical risk and surging oil and commodity prices is a recipe for stagflation which would see the precious metals replicate their performance of the 1970’s when gold rose 24 times in value (from $35 to $850) and silver by over 32 times (from $1.55 to $50). Silver over $100/oz is not as outlandish as once thought with dealers in Hong Kong mooting that possibility. Strong demand for silver is being seen in Asia (see news). Inflation has taken hold in much of the developing world and is taking hold in developed world markets now. Despite very significant price increases in vital commodities, particularly the essentials of food and energy, there remains much denial about the threat of inflation and indeed the threat of stagflation.

The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (Teachers'), the largest single-profession pension plan in Canada, gained 14.3% in 2010 but systemic funding challenges persist...

Earlier today Portugal, by the skin of its teeth, sold €1 billion in 6 and 12 month Bills, which however may be its last auction before the country is forced to beg for a bailout: the yield on the 6 Month bill rose from 2.984% three weeks ago to 5.117%, while the 12 Month surged from 4.311% to 5.902%. This is simply a ridiculous yield and at this rate pretty soon the country will be paying more to issue Bills than Bonds. "I suspect that as far as the market is concerned, funding at these levels can only be viewed as a temporary measure," said Peter Chatwell, rate strategist at Credit Agricole. "There has been a very important signal from the
banks for the future," said BNP Paribas analyst Ioannis Sokos. "Portugal
can still make it through April, but probably won't get to June without
a bailout." Which incidentally is when the country is going to have new government elections: cruising through a period of insolvency without a man in charge is probably not the best idea. But what is worst is that the country's social security fund is once again rumored to have been a buyer of last resort. Since these bonds will eventually default, Portugal's pensioners will not be happy to find out that a notable portion of their retirement capital will soon be wiped out.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 06/04/11

The Congressional Budget Office has chimed in with a 30 page summary comparing the proposed Ryan budget and two previously analyzed scenarios: scenarios—an extended-baseline scenario based on June 2010-current law and an alternative fiscal scenario that incorporated several changes to then-current law that were widely expected to occur or that would modify some provisions of law that might be difficult to sustain for a long period. In essence these are merely variation on the theme of an Obama budget. Needless to say, the divergences are quite dramatic. Since the Ryan budget is focused on fiscal solvency, it achieves that: indeed, comparing projected 2050 Debt/GDP in the Ryan proposal, the CBO reaches a number of 10%, compared to 90% and 344% for the extended-baseline and the alternative fiscal scenarios. On the other hand, the credibility of the assumptions used to goalseek this outcome remain very much in doubt (much more on these in the CBO analysis below). The massive amount of spending cuts, coupled with some very aggressive revenue postulates, will certainly bring the critics out of the woodwork. It will also mean that with fiscal stimulus essentially curtailed, the only source of incremental economic boosting will be monetary policy, read - the Fed, which is an outcome that Bernanke has vocally warned against, due to his concern of Fed "politicization." Then again, with no other choice, it means that the debauchery of the dollar, since the economy is nowhere near the stage where the morphine can be removed, is about to kick into hyperdrive. In the meantime, here are the CBO summary observations.

Time is running out for a decision on Q/E but there is simply not enough evidence to make an informed judgement on the state of the economy and how it would react to a withdrawal of liquidity. Most analysts just look at the ISM and other supply data but Bernanke has got to make sure the economy can survive without his daily liquidity gift. In addition, if as some suggest, Q/E2 has done its job by ramping up equity markets, it still falls far short of his mandates. Unemployment is still massive (the real level is nearer 12-13%) and the participation rate continues to fall. Today there are 44.2 million Americans on food stamps, or 14.3% of the US population! Analysts also seem to forget the massive mountain of issuance coming from the Treasury this year and next. Consumer debt and confidence also matter more to Bernanke than it does to main stream analysts and housing is not helping at all and looks set fall further causing havoc at the banks again.

For the chart pornoholics out there, Robert Kientz has submitted the following compilation of motley charts covering virtually all aspects of the US economy in the past 10 years. Among the topics covered are Employment, GDP, Wages, Wealth, Money Supply, Inflation, Debt and, of course, Capital Markets. We hope readers finds this enjoyable and informative.

Leaving aside for the moment the petty let's be children and see if we can grind the government to a halt game going on amongst parties and sub-parties, and the fact that both parties blessed every single debt cap increase placed before them in equal measure over the past decade of Bush *2 + Obama * 1/2, I just want to focus on House Budget Chairman, Paul Ryan's, corporate tax decrease proposal for a second - because the math is so bizarre.

The economy is in a structural readjustment that will leave the middle class higher and drier. Long-term factors will continue to negatively affect employment. We are headed to a higher level of permanent unemployment than the 5% that existed in pre-crash 2008.

Please move along, no recovery to see here...

A few days ago, we disclosed that based on David Sokol's testimony to CNBC, Buffett's right hand man, Charlie Munger, may be just as guilty of a comparable attempt at frontrunning a Berkshire purchase through his previously undisclosed holdings of a 3% stake in BYD. And despite the Octogenarian's wishes that this story remain dead and buried, Bloomberg has decided to once again bring it up to popular attention. "Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Vice Chairman Charles Munger said his family was invested in BYD Co. “for years” before his company took a stake in the Chinese automaker and that he disclosed the financial interest to his business partner Warren Buffett. “I certainly suggested that Berkshire look at investing in
something that the Mungers were already invested in, but we’d
been in it for years,” he said today in a telephone interview." Of course, since there is no way to check,the general public will be happy to just take Munger's word. After all, he is just as old and cuddly as that other guy, who following the recent spate of negative publicity, and especially Mike Steinhardt's scathing review today, will very soon need his own reality show to preserve his "reputation." Either way, here is the validation fro Munger why the SEC should not be currently deposing him: "I had Dave look at it, because I knew I couldn’t talk
Warren into buying into the damn thing by myself. It’s a new technology-type investment. But David went over
there, and he made the deal for Berkshire. I recused myself. But there’s no
question about it, that I caused Dave’s original interest." Of course, we would love to take Munger's word for it: after all he represents just the same level of "integrity" as Buffett. But in the meantime, we would love to know at  what price Munger made his purchase, and, well, when, because at last check in the "years" preceding 2008, the stock was trading pretty much in line with any price achieved in 2008, not to mention the surge once the Buffett investment was announced. And we are convinced that while his self-proclaimed recusal will placate everyone that Munger may have committed a crime, perhaps the SEC should ask a question or two. If nothing else, than at least to clear the Vice-Chairman's now thoroughly besmirched reputation.