Archive - May 15, 2011

NIA's long anticipated "College Conspiracy", or "why the college bubble is next to burst" video by the NIA is finally out.

All around the world, the bodies and countries with the most power keep screwing people (some like IMF head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, literally) and entire nations, while supporting their banking systems. Last week, S&P announced it would downgrade Portugal if it didn’t play ball with the IMF and EU over its 4-year 78E billion-bailout program in return for hacking public programs. Echoing our own Congressional goons spewing spending cuts in the face of inadequate revenues and for-bank-manufactured mega-debt, the S&P noted, “Two-thirds of the projected savings in [Portugal’s] 2012 budget will likely come from spending cuts.” On a roll, the IMF also declared Italy needs ‘structural reform’, meaning labor market reform, less public ownership and more private investment to “unlock its growth potential.” (aka invite more speculative capital at its earliest convenience.) Meanwhile, thousands of people are again striking in Greece, as the IMF and EU discuss more austerity measures, following the bank bailout that provoked public outrage a year ago, and a rating downgrade by S&P. The EU remains more concerned with investors regaining confidence in Greece than economic stability of its citizens. Then, there’s Ireland, for whom its last bailout didn’t dent its 14.5% unemployment rate, or fill in the gaping holes its banks dug. In short, the global ‘remedy’ for depressed economies and debt-bloated banking sectors remains to do – more of the same - and pretend this will beget a different outcome. Yet, there is no way this strategy will result in more stable economies. What we can expect instead is further widespread deterioration.

As was previously reported by the WSJ, "The IMF is considering holding a board meeting at 5 p.m. Sunday to discuss how to proceed, but isn't expected to come to a decision. Rather the board and staff members are in the midst of conference calls and informal discussions to try to figure out what steps to take next. It's unlikely that Mr. Strauss-Kahn can represent the institution during meetings while dealing with arrest and legal issues, at least over the next week, said officials. An IMF spokesman declined comment." We expect lots of headlines over the next several hours as an unstoppable European default meets an unmovable chaos. In the meantime, we have learned that DSK has retained legal counsel in the form of one Benjamin Brafman, a New York criminal defense attorney. From Wikipedia: "Brafman's profile rose following his winning the acquittal of Sean "P. Diddy" Combs, who was acquitted from his 1999 illegal weapons and bribery charges. The criminal charges stemmed from a nightclub brawl, while accompanied by then-girlfriend Jennifer Lopez  and Combs' usual entourage, and witnessed by over 100 other people. Despite the numerous prosecution witnesses to Combs' culpability, and Combs' fame, Brafman's legal skills produced a unanimous 'not guilty' verdict. Brafman also represented Jay-Z  when the rapper was accused of assaulting record producer Lance "Un" Rivera at New York's Kit Kat club in December 1999. Jay-Z pleaded guilty as part of a deal, and was given three years of probation. In 2002, Jay-Z referenced Brafman in his featured appearance on Cam'ron's "Welcome to New York City". On November 30, 2008, Brafman was hired to represent NFL star Plaxico Burress who on August 3, 2009 was indicted on two counts of criminal possession of a weapon and one count of reckless endangerment. Burress pleaded guilty to a weapons charge and was sentenced to two years in prison. Brafman represented radio personality Star, who was arrested by hate-crime unit detectives on charges of endangering the welfare of a child, aggravated harassment, criminal possession of a weapon and failure to report a change of address on his gun permit after being tricked into going to a New York police station to surrender his 9 mm handgun. The DJ was later released on $2,000 cash bail."

Not all headlines today are about the sexual indignities of the IMF head. While the world is eagerly awaiting yet another photo that may or may not be released, in the form of the Dominique Strauss-Kahn mugshot, a surge in violence along Israel's three borders with Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, has left at last 10 dead and dozens wounded as Palestinians marked what they term Nakba, or "the catastrophe" of Israel's founding in 1948. Reuters reports that "Israeli troops shot at protesters in three separate locations to prevent crowds from crossing Israeli frontier lines in the deadliest such confrontation in years. Israeli and Syrian media reports said Israeli gunfire killed four people after dozens of Palestinian refugees infiltrated the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syria, along a disputed border that has been quiet for decades." A subsequent update from Reuters states that "more than 100 people had been wounded in the shooting incident in the border village of Maroun al-Ras." Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a stern warning: "We hope the calm and quiet will quickly return, but let nobody be mistaken, we are determined to defend our borders and sovereignty." Alas, it appears that this latest bout of regional violence will only escalate and that quite rapidly: "In Tel Aviv, Israel's commercial hub, a truck driven by an Arab Israeli slammed into vehicles and pedestrians, killing one man and injuring 17 people." The only remaining wild card at this point is Iran: should Tehran join in, then all bets will be off. Also, CL traders can't hardly wait the arrival of another record vol day as soon as electronic trading opens later in the day.

Is reducing risk always worth the price?

What about it?

It turns out that the meeting that DSK was rushing to (in just a bit of a rush, without his cell phone), was a critical one for the future of Greece. Per the AP: "The arrest of IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn means a key participant
will be missing at a European meeting considering whether to give Greece
billions more in financial help." Does this mean that all Greek bailout talk is put on hold? As a result the headless (no pun intended) IMF is forced to promote its second in command, John Lipsky, previously chief economist of JP Morgan, to the rank of acting managing director, even as "separately, spokeswoman Caroline Atkinson said the fund remains fully functioning and operational despite the arrest of the fund's chief executive." What is funny is that it was just yesterday that Lipsky announced he was stepping down in August. What happens to the world's pseudo-bailout organization come September, when its top two officers are gone, is anyone's guess.

A plethora of shocked, shocked, responses, that Strauss-Kahn tried to get away (and off) with it again... Of course, the focus now is on the presidential race which just like that of the US, following the Mike Huckabee announcement, is once again wide open.

The global “RISK OFF” trade takes its toll. But for the barbarous relic, this is only a breather. The average Chinese gold holding is $36 per person compared to $1,197 in the US. Expect the former to rise a lot. The trade is moving to the Middle Kingdom. The US is still on top with reserves, but ETF’s are catching up fast. That is unless the gold bars in Fort Knox are actually made of lead with gold paint. Still looking for $2,300.