Archive - May 9, 2011

Data sheets and journals for S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Nymex Crude Oil, Comex Gold, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

Back on Friday we shared a prediction that not only will Greece not leave the Eurozone, but what will happen after the weekend: "I'm convinced Greece is jealous that the portuguese got a much better deal.  They want the same deal arguing that they have already suffered long enough...  Monday they announce that Greece is getting better terms and we are off to the races... by early 2012 greece restructures debt." Once again, this was spot on. Reuters reports: "The European Union is looking to lower interest
rates on bailout loans to Greece and Ireland and is working on a second
rescue for Athens in a chaotic effort to prevent a disorderly debt
restructuring. The executive European Commission said on Monday it hoped to see a decision within weeks on reducing the rate charged to Ireland to make Dublin's debt more sustainable. "The Commission is clearly in favour of a rate
cut," a spokesman for EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli
Rehn said. "The Commission is against debt restructuring."" Once again Europe looks the can in the mouth, and kicks it as far down the street as it possibly can. Next up: fully blown, uncontrolled restructuring in early 2012 as nothing will change in the interim, and more taxpayer revolts will continue taking Europe by storm until we have one that actually matters and puts the PIIGS out in the cold.

Last week we predicted that rumors of a Greek (self) expulsion are nothing but hot air, and an attempt to escalate so-far failing rhetoric at improving the economics of austerity. This was proven right, even as we also predicted, the EURUSD surprisingly remains sticky in the 1.438 area, meaning 120 pips in EURUSD was wiped out on purpose. Here is Goldman's take on this weekend's developments: "Policy makers discuss further help package for Greece. The head of the Euro group Juncker said after a meeting of finance ministers last Friday that "we believe that Greece will need a further program". According to FT Deutschland such a new program could include an extension of repayments of the loan provided under the first program as well as a reduction of the interest rate for these loans. Juncker also dismissed the idea that an exit of Greece from the Euro-zone was being discussed: "This is a stupid idea, it is not a direction we will ever embark on". Newspaper Die Welt reports that the German government demands as a pre-condition for any further program that Greece will also negotiate a - voluntary - maturity extension with its private creditors."

Didn't make it to Pasadena this year for the Value Investing Congress? Well, you are in luck because I was fortunate enough to attend and take notes on what was said by great investors such as Howard Marks and Steve Romick. The following are my 70+ pages of notes from the event.

A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

Release the Kraken!

"So of course he would defend torture - he's trying to keep his behind out of the defense chair at a war crimes tribunal." ... "They have, from the beginning, been trying to prevent an investigation into war crimes."