Archive - Jun 23, 2011

The big question is how many people are long stocks because they played the 200 day moving average bounce?  We have had at least 3 chances in the last week for investors to buy the moving average.  It seems like a lot of people had stopped buying the dip during the relentless march down for stocks, but everyone seemed to jump on the bandwagon that the 200 DMA was a big support for stocks.  I think a lot of investors got sucked in and allocated capital and are now weak longs.  One group waited until Tuesday when the market really seemed strong and 'was destined to test resistance at 1300' before buying in.  The other group of weak longs are those who typically don't play technicals but found the 200 DMA bounce theory too compelling to resist.  It is always difficult to trade when losing money, but the ability to make really dumb decisions goes up when we have positions that were put on for reasons that we don't normally follow.  The technicians are used to these trades, it is what they do.  The 'fundamentalists' are not and are more likely to react badly to losing money here.  People must be scratching their heads a little, since it seems, according the rose colour glasses world i)  Greece fixed, ii) Contagion avoided, iii) economic soft patch is only a soft patch and no risk of double dip, and iv) Bernanke will be there for us.

Just when you thought you had seen it all...

A fascinating look at how US public pensions are betting their future on hedge funds...

Well, it's not quite the negative Bill prints we saw right after Lehman, but the second someone lifts that offer in the 1 Month, Americans will revert to paying the Treasury for the privilege of it holding 1 Month paper. Of course, the last time the 1M was on the verge of being negative, the S&P was at 666. We are now double that. What happens should stocks plummet by 50%, without the Fed withdrawing the massive amounts of liquidity still sloshing out there: -0.5%? -1.0%?

I see we have lots of very very funny entries...but check out Liquid Courage's at the bottom. Maybe he'll put it on Conan.

The much anticipated, and expected, IEA report is here.

• IEA SAYS TO RELEASE STOCKS
• IEA SAYS TO RELEASE 60 MILLION BARRELS OVER COMING MONTHS
• IEA SAYS TO RELEASE STOCKS TO ENSURE SUPPLY DUE TO LIBYA
• IEA SAYS MEASURE TO ALLEVIATE LIBYA UNREST, IMPACT ON SUPPLY
• IEA SAYS 132 MILLION BARRELS LOST TO LIBYA
• IEA SAYS HIGH PRICES DAMAGE ECONOMY OF EVERY COUNTRY; IMPACT WORSE ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
• IEA SAYS VOTED FOR EMERGENCY RELEASE FOR ONLY THIRD TIME
  

Wonder what is happening with Greek deposits? Nothing good, at least nothing good for Greek banks. And it is not just Greece: all of Europe is scrambling into the relative security of Switzerland where the EURCHF just hit a fresh all time low of 1.1915, and likely to drop much lower. And the FX massacre has just spread to commodities where everything is screaming "Risk Off."

The soft patch may need to order a lifelong supply of Viagra soon, as the economic news continues going from bad to worse: Initial Claims just printed at 429,000 on expectations of 415,000. Prior was naturally revised higher, the n+1 such revision, from 414K to 420K. Continuing claims also missed the consensus of 3670K coming at 3697K, although in yet another BLS spin job, the number will be presented as a drop, since the previous number of 3675K was revised to, wait for it, 3698K, a one week sequential drop of 1K in continuing claims. The week ended June 4 saw the first spike in recipients of extended claims, with both EUCs and Extended Benefits rising by 68K. Bottom line, this is the 11th consecutive week of 400K+ Initial Claims, which likely means that the June NFP will be revised substantially lower. The state by state analysis showed that not a single state had a decline of more than 1000 claims, while 13 state had a greater than 1000 increase in claims, with the biggest hit being Pennsyvlania and California, at 6,019 and 3,884, due to layoffs in the service, manufacturing and transportation industries.

• America Faces Critical "Colonel Jessup" Moment (RCM)
• Democrats push for jobs package in debt deal (Reuters)
• HSBC Preliminary China June PMI Falls to 11-Month Low (WSJ)
• Most Euro-Zone Economies Contract (WSJ)
• Trichet Says Risk Signals Are Flashing Red as Debt Crisis Threatens Banks (Bloomberg)
• A Divine Wind Blows Against Iran’s President (NYT)
• Syrian troops mass near Turkish border (Reuters)
• Yemen Jailbreak by Al-Qaeda Fighters Highlights Risk of Descent into Chaos (Bloomberg)
• Buy and Hold Crushes Day Traders, New Report Shows (CBS)
• Greek, Irish Incomes Take Hit (WSJ)

Risk-aversion remained the dominant theme during the European session on the back of the ongoing Greek debt concern, allied with worse than expected manufacturing PMI data from core Eurozone countries like France and Germany. This resulted in weakness in European equities, which provided support to Bunds, and also observed widening of Eurozone 10-year government bond yield spreads across the board. In the forex market, strength in the USD-Index weighed upon EUR/USD and GBP/USD, whereas weakness in commodities exerted downward pressure on commodity-linked currencies. Moving into the North American open, markets look ahead to key economic data from the US in the form of jobless claims, Chicago Fed and new home sales. In fixed income, 2-, 5-, and 7-year Note refunding announcement, another Fed's Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase operation in the maturity range of Aug'21-Nov'27, with a purchase target of USD 1-1.5bln, and USD 7bln 30-year TIPS auction are also scheduled for later.

About a week ago, Goldman Sachs closed its tactical short USDCNY Non-Deliverable Forward trade, which was opened on June 10, 2010 and which expired a year later for a 4.2% gain. Goldman added: "Our view has not changed. The necessary adjustments to global imbalances demand a weaker US Dollar, and especially so vs the CNY. The cyclical and political backdrop remains supportive along those lines. Moreover, we expect $/CNY depreciation to continue/extend in the months to come. We remain positioned for the theme via our $/CNY NDF recommended Top Trade with longer initial maturity, expiring on 4 December 2012." Nonetheless, something appears to have shifted in the derivative CNY market, where as Bloomberg points out, it now costs more to bet on RMB weakness than strength. It adds: "China appears headed for a hard landing as the country’s housing market shows more signs of weakness. Currency traders have reduced their expectations for more appreciation of the yuan versus the dollar in the derivatives market, meaning they expect Chinese policy makers to fundamentally shift their approach to the currency due to economic softening. Other markets may soon follow currency’s lead." As the attached chart shows the USDCNY 3 Month 25 Delta Risk Reversal for the first time since September 2009, there appears to be some outright bearishness on the renminbi appreciation scenario. Does this mean that yesterday's decline in the official fixing rate to 6.4736 on Thursday, lower than the record high of 6.4683 on Wednesday is more than a one time adjustment and is the start of a new trend? We will find out soon enough.

Another slow day on the economic docket, with just C-grade indicators like Initial Claims and New Home sales due, which means that more gossip, innuendo, and outright lies out of Europe and Greece will determine the direction of the EURUSD, and thus the Russell 2000, better known as the US economy.

The European Central Bank President, Jean-Claude Trichet, was not as optimistic as he usually is, when he raised the alarm level on the debt crisis to “red” late yesterday. After the meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board in Frankfurt, Trichet who chairs the ESRB, said that risk signals for financial stability in the euro area are rising and flashing “red”. He said “on a personal basis I would say yes, it is red”. Trichet warned market participants that the crisis is nowhere close to be resolved. Trichet warned of “potential contagion effects across the union and beyond.” Overnight Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told Bloomberg this morning (see interview below) that he still favours gold and silver. He said there could be short term weakness but that he will keep accumulating gold. Faber warned against shorting the precious metals as they are likely to keep going up. He also warned regarding recent incidents of fraud and corruption by newly listed Chinese companies and said this was indicative a bubble. In his usual contrarian and witty manner, he said that “not to own any gold is to trust central bankers and that you do not want to do in your life.”

A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

The eurozone is in serious trouble and Greece is just a symptom. Whether or not they default on their debt may not matter as similar problems plague Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and even Italy. The European Monetary Union is built on a house of cards and they don't have the time for needed radical reforms. Like all sovereigns who owe more than they can pay, they will resort to monetary inflation to bail themselves out. This article explains how the EMU works, why it is failing, and why they will resort to fiat money printing to solve it.