Archive - Jun 2011

The most recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out. As usual the most interesting data can be found in the FX spec update which does not disappoint. Just as we predicted, as the EUR surged over the past 14 days so did non-commercial net specs. The number which is through Tuesday, probably increased even as the EUR got hammered over the past 24 hours, dropping 250 pips in two days. Expect the usual piling out through the front door as specs bail once again. At that point the time to buy the EUR will come. Of the other two major pairs, the USD and the JPY, the Yen increased in long exposure while the Dollar saw the first decline in 8 weeks: just in time for the USD to jump once again.

The down leg of the “V” is well underway. When does the up leg begin, and when should we start positioning for it? Toyota’s Motor’s stunning year on year decline in domestic sales of -69%. Quantitative easing nearly triple the Federal Reserve’s own recent QE2 efforts on a per capita basis. GDP growth as high as 3% in 2012, taking it to the top of the pack of developed nations. (EW), (FXY), (YCS), (TM), (NSANY), (FANUY), (CAJ), (KMTUY).

The trading gods have blessed us with an opportunity to print money like the big boys. Jump in you are missing out on all of the fun.

The Fed just released the final POMO schedule which completes QE2: the total amount of bonds to be monetized will be $60 billion (at the upper end of the range) and with that the QE2 portion of monetary stimulus is over. Notably, there will be two POMOs on June 20. What is interesting, is that the Fed will continue the QE Lite portion as expected, with what appears to be a modest weekly POMO to the tune of $3.5 billion on July 6 and July 11, meant to replenish the bonds that mature and prepaid MBS. Alas, as the total notional shows, and as Zero Hedge expected, the $7 billion in two weeks is woefully inadequate to provide the Shadow QE that many have expected. It is interesting that as part of QE Lite the Fed will focus on what appears to be the 4-5 years part of the Curve.

Frankly, we couldn't care less about the content of Sarah Palin's emails. But some do. And since Alaska office has made it prohibitively difficult for most to access this collection in non-electronic format, requiring up to $750 in physical content fees, below we provide a link to the only resource that currently provides the most comprehensive selection of the just disclosed Palin email archive. The redacted emails can be found here.

Most commodity ETFs are just clever ways to screw retail investors into taking delivery of whatever hedge funds are dumping...

Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more (according to NY Fed mouthpiece Steve Liesman, a hypothetical which will likely be refuted before long), probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate to protect financial companies from the the material capital infusion that will be needed post the onboarding of $200+ trillion in OTC derivatives to exchanges as we reported previosuly, but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day.

XLF's knee jerk reaction.

It's the year 2011...The actor Charlton Heston is long gone

It is somewhat ironic that the only thing that can undo the Tepper "Balls to the Wall" effect is.... Tepper.

We hosted Tiger Management’s John Townsend at the Grandover Resort in Greensboro yesterday evening, for CFA North Carolina’s Annual Meeting. Member feedback suggests it was our best yet.

What could possibly go wrong when a post-industrial town mortgages itself and (its future) to the hilt for a new Soccer Stadium?

The topic of Americans living mortgage-free in foreclosed homes on which banks do not have proper titles is nothing new - in fact we are surprised that there isn't a robosignature app for that...yet. Neither is the fact that this ongoing reverse capital transfer provides as much as $50 billion in "rental" income for those same squatters. And while the ethical arguments for strategically defaulting on one's mortgage can get very heated on both sides, one thing is certain: the ongoing foreclosure crisis is creating a new subclass of "entitled" people, who certainly enjoy living on the back of the banks, while not paying one cent, and not vacating the premises. According to a new article by CNNMoney, some of the excesses observed within this latest demonstration of unearned entitlement are truly staggering. To wit: "Charles and Jill Segal have not made a mortgage payment in nearly five years -- but they continue to live in their five-bedroom West Palm Beach, Fla. home....Lynn, from St. Petersburg, Fla., has been living without paying for three years....In Thousand Oaks, Calif., an actor has missed 30 payments, and still, he has not lost his home...." In other words, what were once isolated incidents are becoming an epidemic, and like it or not, are creating a massive capital shortfall in bank balance sheets (after all "assets" are supposed to generate cash in most cases), which will likely involve yet another broad taxpayer bailout of these same banks that now have no recourse to do much if anything to evict these same squatters who instead of paying their mortgage (or rent), prefer to purchase trinkets and gizmos. "Some 4.2 million mortgage borrowers are either seriously delinquent or
have had their cases referred to lawyers to pursue foreclosure auctions,
according to LPS Applied Analytics. Of those, two-thirds have made no
payments at all for at least a year, and nearly one-third have gone more
than two years."

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge
Weakness in CAD evident after mixed Canadian economic data

Corporate America is profoundly bankrupt. Not in a financial sense, of course; the Federal Reserve's slow destruction of the U.S. dollar has boosted corporate profits most handsomely as the majority of their earnings and profits are obtained overseas; when stated in dollars, those outsized profits swell even higher. No, the bankruptcy of Corporate America is not found on the bottom line; it is measured by altogether more profound metrics than mere money. Corporate America is bankrupt on levels which are difficult to describe; morally and spiritually bankrupt, not just in the pathologies that guide corporate goals and behaviors, but in the Potemkin shell of free enterprise they present to the world in ceaseless propaganda, and in the manner in which they have cut America loose from their corporate souls. Corporate America only resides in America because it controls the machinery of governance and regulation here for pathetically modest investments in lobbying and campaign contributions. It would be impossible to replace the global Empire that protects and nurtures it, and so Corporate America maintains its headquarters in America, the better to shape policy and skim gargantuan profits from the Empire and its Central State in Washington. The return on investment for lobbying and campaign contributions is simply unmatchable anywhere else; it is without doubt the highest return on investment on the planet. And the risk-return is immensely favorable; there is simply no risk that the Empire or the Central State will ever go against the "best interests" of its corporate partners.

From Greek website Capital: "George Papandreou said that reforms on the political system or the public administration need the voting of Greek people through referendums. Furthermore, he stated that “the road will be difficult but we must endure the pain”, adding that he is determined to proceed with all the necessary changes to make the country’s debt sustainable."