Archive - Jun 2011

The current situation may indeed be different from that presented by Long Term Capital Management, but it may be even more alarming, not less alarming. Due to the use of structured products and derivatives, hedge funds can take on hidden leverage above and beyond that which can be explained by polling prime brokers. Furthermore, illiquid structured products will experience a classic collateral crash when hedge funds try to liquidate these assets to meet margin calls or collateral "cures". Since 2000, assets invested in hedge funds have more than tripled to around $1,500bn. While on average leverage may appear manageable, some hedge funds - Amaranth to cite a recent example - employ high degrees of leverage. A potential source of a "great unwind" arises from a trigger event affecting highly leveraged hedge funds, and another potential source is systemic risk that effects a larger cohort of hedge funds.

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge
Weakness in CAD evident after mixed Canadian economic data

While the rest of the world is transfixed by the latest pocket change bailout of the Eurozone, China has stealthily conducted an economic rescue bigger than than one and a half TARPs. Dylan Grice's latest note focuses on the key news out of China from last week which oddly received very little media attention, namely the onboarding by the Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFV) of $463 billion in bad loans made to various infrastructure and development projects as part of the Chinese stimulus package. This is nothing short of a bailout the likes of TARP when Paulson transferred billions of toxic debt to the government's balance sheet. The reason why this is actually a much bigger deal than perceived is that as Grice notes, a "bail-out of $463bn is half the size of the TARP, introduced by Paulson at the nadir of the 2008 crisis, for an economy which is only one-third the size of the US. So adjusted for GDP, China has just announced an emergency bail out of one and a half TARPs!! If we calibrate the magnitude of the economic crisis with the size of the bail-out, one and a half TARPs implies a financial crisis one and half times the order of magnitude of 2008." In other words, China very quietly and stealthily buried a massive bailout with just one passing Reuters mention. And nobody cares... Or more specifically, those who have long held a very bearish view on China, should certainly care, as what happened is that the unwind catalyst, so critical for most China bearish theses, was just pushed back by several years. And since China is full to the gills with excess dollars, all that happened was that the government effectively diverted money that would have been otherwise recycled to purchase US paper, in the form of a government fund to bail out it own. Crisis averted as another centrally planned regime managed to do what the Fed and the ECB have been doing so well for nearly 3 years now.

Expect the usual: more promises of Marshall Plans, more FX liquidity swaps, more US taxpayer commitments to keep Europe afloat and the Greek retirement age under 60, etc.

The US economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse in the last three months. Considering that we never had a recovery to begin with, I believe we’re heading into a very, VERY rough patch here in the US. Without adjustments, the US economy LOST (not gained) over 100,000 jobs in April. Nearly 30% of all mortgages in the US have negative equity. Food prices are through the roof. And we’re actively raiding pension funds in order to fund debt issuance.

I have told subscribers that I would have to revisit the Apple valuation numbers after finding out more about their cloud services offerings. After all, embracing the cloud could potentially enable Apple to win the Mobile Computing Wars. As I have stated in my many rants regarding the Mobile Computing Wars, Apple is (strategically) placed behind Google.

Is the Fed telegraphing that today's 3:45pm speech, expected by many to presage some form of monetary easing preannouncement by the Chairman, will leave many disappointed? That could well be the case based on the just disclosed data from the Fed's mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath, who spoke to Chicago Fed's Evans. In the interview, we find that the Fed president decided to cut its outlook (long overdue), but more importantly, Evans, a diehard dove and a big fan of additional easing, announced that he "doesn’t want to add to [QE]." In other words, as we have been warning, the S&P will have to drop at least another 25% before the "high threshold" for more money printing is reached. Ironically, for the first time, discounting even near certain future events does not work, courtesy of Central Planning, which needs the market to act in a centrally planned way and drop despite the inevitable Zimbabwe reaction.

In another direct stab at the last remnant of truly independent (if often times quite incompetent) media, the New Jersey Supreme Court has just found that people posting opinions online don't have the same protections for sources as mainstream journalists. According to our secret sources at the AP, (also known as Copy and Paste), "The court ruled Tuesday that New Jersey's shield law for journalists does not apply to online message boards. The case involved a New Jersey-based software company named Too Much Media. It sued a Washington state blogger for defamation and wanted her to reveal sources she cited on message board posts." It is sad that the legislative has decided to invoke a tiering in the media world, which will most certainly backfire and bring even more eyeballs to the blogosphere, where while the bulk of the information comes in the form of CTRL+V information exchange, it does serve a critical role of being a non-conflicted (corporate advertising) source of much needed information. In the meantime, ever more blogs will find it necessary to offshore their operations (Iceland and Sweden are quite friendly in that regard) in order to avoid the encroaching US police state.

Inflation expresses itself in many forms. The price of Brazilian bikini waxes in Rio is going through the roof. The big picture here is that inflation is worsening, not only in Brazil, but other emerging markets, like China, India, and Vietnam. An economic indicator in the hand is worth two in the bush? And I won’t even get into the implications of “Stealth” inflation.

Contrary to ongoing wideranging skepticism, Saudi Arabia continues to posture that not only does it have substantial excess capacity, but that it will bring it online any... minute...now. After all, Saudi owes the US a big favor (i.e., lower gas prices) in exchange for America's (or rather its Fifth Fleet) continued presence in Bahrain, which even those living in a cave know has been under a full media blackout to keep the ongoing religious tensions under wraps and keep the Saudi-Bahrain border safe (not to mention the Ghawar oil field). So even as Saudi had promised to hike its output as Libyian production went offline only for it to be discovered that the country had in fact lowered production, so now too the song and dance has hit fever pitch. Reuters reports that "Saudi Arabia is planning to lift oil output sharply in June, whatever policy OPEC adopts this week, in an effort to rein in high fuel prices. Riyadh expects to lift production by more than 500,000 barrels a day in June to its highest for three years, a senior Gulf industry official familiar with Saudi oil policy told Reuters." We can't wait to hear how Saudi's unilateral plan to boost Obama's reelection chances is met by other OPEC members such as Iran, Venezuela, Iraq and Libya. "Worried about the impact on economic growth of
inflated energy costs, Saudi will act alone if necessary to keep a lid
on prices now at $114 a barrel for benchmark Brent crude." Wait, isn't OPEC a "cartel", or a place where unilateral decisions are not allowed, for precisely this reason? Of course, at the end of the day, with recent Wikileaks disclosure that Saudi Arabia admitted it has overstated its reserves by some 300 billion barrels, or 40% of total, this latest ploy to push gasoline prices lower into the summer season will have a half life that is shorter than the SNB's FX intervention attempts.

Unlike many of his colleagues at MarketWatch, Paul Farrell has never hidden his contempt for the broken financial and social system currently imploding at every step, although courtesy of enjoyable and distracting $0.99 apps and semi-soft porn dancing shows on primetime, few seem to care or notice. For those who do notice, however, Paul has some words of caution: prepare an "evil plan" - Farrell explains: "Got your “Evil Plan” yet? You really need one. For self-defense, attacks, plain old survival. Why? Things are bad folks. And they’re going to get much worse. Trust no one. Believe nothing you hear. Nothing....While reading Hugh MacLeod’s best-seller “Evil Plans: Having Fun on the Road to World Domination” over Memorial Day I ran across a Newsweek feature, “Mad As Hell,” an ominous warning screaming: “The anger that fueled the Arab Spring is now boiling over in Europe. Could club-wielding protesters be in America’s future too?. What’s an “Evil Plan?” For MacLeod it started as personal, years ago when he broke free of corporate life, became an entrepreneur, made “a good living, doing what you love, without being accountable to some larger company.” That triggered a revolution." Alas, if only it was as easy for most as it is for MacLeod...

Moody's joins every other sellsides who forgot to actually perform any due diligence on the company Buy rating notwithstanding, and has just put the company's Ba2 rating on downgrade review. This is more bad news for Paulson who is rumored to have not only a big position in the company's stock, but substantially exposed to its debt as well. Moody's cites: "allegations surrounding the accuracy of Sino-Forest's audited accounts and its business model" as the reason for the downgrade. Great job Moody's: feel free to piggyback on the work of 2 guys in a small office somewhere who did your job for you. Now when is Mark Zandi taking over Goolsbee's job?

Following yesterday's news out of Zillow of a 0.77% drop in April home values compared to March, today we get an update from CoreLogic which in turn looks at the latest trends on "underwater" (or negative equity) mortgages in the US. In summary: "10.9 million, or 22.7 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the first quarter of 2011, down slightly from 11.1 million, or 23.1 percent, in the fourth quarter. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the first quarter. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.7 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide. In the fourth quarter, these two categories stood at 27.9 percent." The most impacted state is Nevada, which has 62.6% of all mortgages underwater (with another 4.8% in near-negative), followed by Arizona, Florida and Michigan. California is fifth with 30.9% of all homes underwater. We doubt these millions of "homeowners" are benefiting much from the wealth effect.

Our “first quarter” Broyhill Letter is embedded below. We promise to be more prompt with our second quarter letter, which is right around the corner.

In case anyone was wondering why Goolsbee was the latest sacrifice at the altar of public discontent with Obama's economic "policies" here it is: "Americans' disapproval of how President Barack Obama is handling the economy and its growing budget deficit has reached new highs amid broad frustration over the slow pace of economic recovery, according to a Washington Post-ABC New poll released on Tuesday. The ratings Obama's approval rating bounced to 56 immediately after bin Laden was killed last month. Fifty-nine percent, a new high, gave Obama negative marks for his handling of the economy, up from 55 percent a month earlier. Obama's approval rating on the deficit issue hit a new low of 33 percent, down 6 points since April. The state of the economy poses a huge challenge for the president, whose re-election in 2012 may depend on his ability to convince voters that his economic policies have been successful." Unfortunately Goolsbee's departure means that the one sacrificial lamb left in the Obama economic circle (now that Mark Zandi seems a shoo in for at least one position on Obama's staff), Tim Geithner, will be kept in Obama's back pocket until QE 3 (which will come - Obama has nothing else left up his sleeve) proves to be an abysmal failure and be fired once the Fed's balance sheet hits about $4 trillion, roughly $1.3 trillion higher than where it is now.