Archive - Jul 19, 2011

With Apple due to report earnings after the close, everyone is focusing on the stock whose market cap at this rate of growth will surpass $1 trillion within a few short years. While we wish Apple all the best in that questionable pursuit, especially if it wishes to avoid a Volkswagen-Porsche type short squeeze, it is interesting to note that the WSJ has reported that "some directors" are pondering the succession of the iconic Steve Jobs, who until 2 years ago was perceived as instrumental and the vision behind what has become the "coolest" brand in technology. The surprising finding is that this may be happening behind his back. From the WSJ: "Since Steve Jobs went on medical leave this winter, some members of Apple Inc.'s board have discussed CEO succession with executive recruiters and at least one head of a high-profile technology company, according to people familiar with the matter. The conversations weren't explicitly aimed at recruiting a new chief executive and were more of an informal exploration of the company's options, said these people. The directors don't appear to have been acting on behalf of the full board, some of these people said. Apple has seven directors, including Mr. Jobs." Jobs response was not very agreeable: "It is also unclear whether Mr. Jobs was aware. "I think it's hogwash." However, while we assume that no voicemails were hacked in the procurement of hits article, we do tend to believe the WSJ, especially with Jobs' frail health in the last few months. Will it impact the stock as it did once upon a time: probably not. Or at least not until such time as the absence of Jobs does change the precarious ecosystem balance of geeky, techy and cool. Finding a replacement will not be easy.

This lack of accountability leads to increasing bad behavior.

First Spain's Castilla La Mancha region was the first to announce it had "discovered" major debt ceiling holes, now it is Portugal's turn. The Telegraph informs that "Portugal's new leader Pedro Passos Coelho has told the nation to brace for further austerity measures after his government discovered a "colossal" €2bn (£1.7bn) hole in the public accounts left by the outgoing Socialists." And while it answers our immediate question "who's next" it certainly does not provide an answer to who's last. Because as more and more governments are changed, more and more such "discoveries" will be announced, but luckily for Europe (and then America), there are far more pressing issues that distract the populace than discoveries than in the past would have led to popular backlash. Concurrently, Portugal joins Greece in indicating that beggars can most certainly be choosers: "Mr Passos Coelho also appeared to caution the European authorities that his government will not tolerate heavy-handed interference in the country. "We want to take part in an ambitious European project and make our contribution so Europe can confront its problems in the most ambitious way, but as prime minister I will not stand by and let Europe govern Portugal," he told a party gathering." And while short-termism reigns across capital markets at least for a few more hours, the reality is that there is simply not enough money out there to plug each and every hole as it is uncovered. But that will take the market a few weeks to months to realize.

Since we don't have minutely Europe headlines, instead we get US ones. And here is the first official reaction to the McConnell plan from a rating agency. Since this Plan B is far more concrete than the Gang of Whatever Plan, Moody's will have absolutely the same to say about the previously noted 5 page talking points memo.

While it is easy to ignore the latest delayed and frankly laughable melt up in stocks, which reacted to nothing but Bloomberg headlines even as the "Gangbang of Three hundred million" information was well in the public domain, and have surged on the usual and now much adored low-to-no volume move, the move in bonds is far more troubling for the simple reason that unlike stocks (recall that most fast money asset manager are now in cash and just intraday HFTs and day traders rely on the S&P, as well as the dumb money of course) bonds are far more critical. And it is there that we have a truly unprecedented buying rampage, with an emphasis on the 30 Year, which has moved from being most hated this morning to most loved in the span of a few hours: a move which courtesy of massive leverage has left many holders with a whiplash induced concussion. And since the Congress has said absolutely nothing good about this news, expect the same whiplashing that we saw out of Europe on every headline to make its way to the US bond market.

You guessed it: the second the headline scanning momos and HFTs got wind about the new debt program, despite it being out there for over an hour, the market surged. But only stocks. The broader representation of risk has barely budged. Is this divergence sustainable? Who knows (except for Brian Sack of course). Those who can recreate the RISK basket synthetically may wish to contiune the trend of profitable compression trades between reality and momo stupidity.

Is this like South Africa at the end of the Apartheid era, where those in power have to hand over some of the reins to the majority to prevent violence?

Well it's not a 3 page term sheet. It is a 5 page talking point bulletin full of ridiculous fluff with nothing substantial.

Sure enough, within hours of the rumored Senate "deal" on the Chained CPI which will magically whack off $500 billion from the deficit, here comes the president to address the debt talks, most likely praising Senate for reaching a consensus, and spinning it as a $3.7 trillion grand compromise which in reality is nothing but even more plundering from not only the future, but from those who are most reliant on COLA adjustments to keep up with real CPI. Watch it live below.

If XLF does break down, who is going to save the day?

Politico reports that the latest development in the constantly changing and oh so theatric "struggle" to find a compromise on how to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, is one which will not only not do anything to fix the deficit situation but will in fact set America back, as a key part of the "savings" will come precisely from the same change in the definition of inflation courtesy of the Chained CPI introduction, which the democrats previously blasted, and for good reason: because it will be an implicit theft from Social Security. Recall that the last time this was proposed the AARP started foaming in the mouth within minutes. The broad strokes of the plan are as follows: "The once moribund Senate “Gang of Six” regained new life Tuesday after Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn unexpectedly rejoined the group — and more senators are now coalescing around a new proposal that would cut the debt by as much as $3.7 trillion over the next decade.  According to a copy of the plan, obtained by POLITICO, the group would impose a two-step legislative process that would make $500 billion worth of cuts immediately followed by a second bill to create a “fast-track process” that would propose a comprehensive bill aimed at dramatically restructuring tax and spending programs. The plan calls for changes to Social Security to move on a separate track, and establishes an elaborate procedure for considering the measures on the floor." And here is the kicker: "The $500 billion in cuts would come from a range of sources, including shifting to a new consumer price index to make cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security." Care to wager what the bulk of this $500 billion will come from: that's right - social security, whose deliverable obligations will plunge as suddenly the inflation variable in the actuarial calculation will very mysteriously be cut courtesy of Senate-endorsed theft.

Now that the big banks have reported below are two charts that sum up how they are doing aside from the noise of "beating expectations."

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

Most of the tainted mortgage documents in question last fall were related to homes in foreclosure. But much of the suspect paperwork that has been filed since then is for refinancing or for new purchases by people who are in good standing in the eyes of the bank.

Greece is NOT the big problem for the EU. However, worldwide exposure to Greek debt is in the ballpark of $277 billion. So a default there would result in significant market dislocations. Now consider the exposure to a BIG Problem such as Spanish debt. In this situation, Great Britain is on the hook for $51 billion. The US is on the hook for $187 billion. France is on the hook for $224 billion. And Germany is on the hook for a whopping $244 billion.