Archive - Jul 3, 2011

Tyler Durden's picture

Wolfgang Munchau On How The Greek Rollover "Deal" Is A Toxic CDO





A week ago, Zero Hedge penned "An MLEC In PIIGS' Clothing: The Latest Greek Bailout Proposal Picks Up Where the Super SIV Failed" in which we explained how the current fatally flawed proposal for a Greek bailout is nothing more than a structured vehicle, expected to remain off the books, and much more importantly, expected to not trigger rating agency ire, and kill the entire extend and pretend game: remember - an Event of Default by a rating agency, even a Technical one (completely irrelevant of what ISDA does with Greek CDS) means game over for the European Central Bank and its €2 trillion in "assets", not to mention the western financial system. Now, a week later, the FT's own Wolfgang Munchau explains why our observation of how toxic the "bailout plan" is was rather accurate: "This structure is still not quite so complex as some of the more elaborate CDOs we have encountered in the global financial crisis. If you take some time to work through the arrows and boxes, you see relatively quickly that this complex structure is not a private sector participation at all. Rather it is a private sector bail-out... I have no space for a large drawing with lots of boxes and arrows to explain the complexity of the vehicle, through which eurozone governments want to involve the private-sector banks in its next loan package." Munchau's conclusion: "If this was any other field of human activity, you would go to jail if you accepted, let alone made such an indecent offer." On the other hand, all is fair in love and perpetuating the ponzi Status QuoTM. Our follow-on observation that "The two things that are keeping the Eurozone afloat: an SPV and a CDO" alas appears also to be rather in line. And before the entire financial system collapses upon itself like a cheap lawnchair, this will be fondly remembered as one of the more prudent "rescue" mechanisms enacted to delay the inevitable.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Goodbye Rare Earth Minerals, Hello Not So Rare Underwater Minerals: Vast ___ Oxide Deposit Discovered In Pacific Seabed





Two weeks ago we demonstrated what happens to prices of so-called "rare" earth minerals, which are almost exclusively controlled by China, and whose exports China recently decided to cut to a mere trickle, resulting in a 10+ fold increase in some of the most rare minerals in under a month. It also has allowed the third R bubble to persist as long as it has. It appears that the bubble is about to pop big time. According to Nikkei, "Vast deposits of rare earth minerals have been discovered on the seabed of the Pacific Ocean amounting to 1,000 times those on land, media reported on Monday citing a study by Japanese researchers." Of course, this could merely be one of those not quite definitive discoveries, which end up being disproven eventually, but which serve to merely pop a temporary speculative bubble. Just like the IEA. In the meantime, it may be time to temporarily erase the Rare from Rare Earth Minerals, and change Earth to Underwater.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

June Light Vehicle Sales SAAR Drops To 10 Months Low, Upside Economic Case In Question





As is by now well known, when it comes to upside theories debunking the bearish "economic contraction" case, there are two core arguments: a Japanese pick up, and a surge in automotive production and sales. And following a jump in Japanese industrial production last week, there was a brief consensus that the soft spot as a result of the earthquake and tsunami have been overcome. Until the subsequent Tankan confidence index release, that is. And in the meantime, nobody can still explain how the economy is expected to return to trendline if peak electric consumption can not be met by a crippled electrical infrastructure. Which leaves auto production, and the latest iteration of inventory restocking. Zero Hedge already discussed the glaring split in inventory data between the Chicago PMI and the Manufacturing ISM, which as Goldman noted previously is a major wildcard in determining future GDP growth. Perhaps David Rosenberg said it best in his Friday Breakfast with Dave: "While there is no doubt that we will see an inventory boost from a revamping of auto production in the coming quarter, what will be critical is whether final sales will hold up. So far in June, chain store sales are running below plan. Auto sales, however, are the real wild card and could hold the key as to whether we are, in fact, at an inflection point. Go back to August 2007 and they put in an interim peak of 16.3 million annualized units. They bottomed for good in February 2009 at 9.2 million units. Then they hit a nearby high of 11.7 million units in March of last year just ahead of the market downturn and "double dip" concerns, only to then trough at 11.5 million in August 2010 just as the market was ready to rip. And then, in February of this year, sales peaked at 13.4 million in February. The May number was 11.8 million - and today we get June. Stay tuned." Consensus was for a significant rise to 12.0 million in June. The actual number was 11.45 million. The lowest since August 2010. So much for an inflection point (not to mention that all of this ignores the record channel stuffing in post-reorg GM).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

A Look At Events In The Week Ahead: Less Headline Risk, More ECB Rate Hikes





In the week ahead, we are waiting for the second batch of key activity data in the form of service sector and non-manufacturing surveys, as well as US payrolls. The Chinese non-manufacturing PMI has already been released over the weekend, showing a decline from 61.9 to 57.0. After last week's key votes in Greece, headline risk should decline though we are now entering the phase where the final negotiations for the second support package take place. The updated funding strategy for Greece will likely be unveiled by Eurozone Finance Ministers on July 11. There will be central bank meetings by the ECB (+25bp), BOE (on hold), in Malaysia (+25bp), Mexico (on hold), and Poland (on hold).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Sean Corrigan's Commodities Corner





"Regular readers may be aware that two of the author’s greatest bugbears are Malthusianism and mindlessly mathematical macroeconomics. The two of these come into no sharper focus than when we turn to the hoary old canard of ‘Peak Oil’, especially when it cites the work of those two past masters of wrongly–applied ratiocination, Hubbert and Hotelling. The former we have recently dealt with already, so let us say a few words about the latter—a gentlemen who was a statistician, not an economist, in an era when there was still an honourable degree of separation between the two disciplines (ironically, he was also, at one time, Murray Rothbard’s professor at Columbia before the latter had a self?declared ‘epiphany’ regarding the flimsy epistemological grounds upon which much statistics lies and quit the course forthwith). The better to set the scene, let us first note that those who think of themselves as ‘resource economists’ all seem to think of their subject as if they were describing an Easter egg hunt. In this, an explicitly determine number of eggs are scattered about over a given territory and the seekers are then sent off to find them. Once found and eaten, they can never be replaced. I’m sorry, boys and girls, but the fun’s over and it’s back to spinach and cauliflower from here on in." - Sean Corrigan

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Greece Welcomes Its New European Overlords - Juncker Warns "The Sovereignty Of Greece Will Be Massively Limited"





The Greek indigents huffed and puffed, broke a couple of marble plates from Syntagma square, striked for a few days (or is that stroke?), and achieved nothing. In the meantime, their government just sold off the country to European banking interests. But don't take our word for it. Take the word (on those very rare occasions when it is actually telling the truth) of Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker who just told Focus magazine that "The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited." And just like DSK's innocence was effectively granted 2 days after Christine Lagarde was made new head of the IMF (we still are waiting for the IMF to have a statement on the recent DSK developments), so Juncker's stunning disclosure comes not even 12 hours after the 5th Greek bailout package has been released. Per the Guardian: "Juncker's interview appeared just hours after Eurozone ministers signed off the fifth tranche of last year's bailout, worth €12bn. The payment must now be rubber-stamped by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and pushed through by 15 July in time to meet several bond repayment deadlines. Agreeing the latest IMF payout, on 8 July, will be an early task for Christine Lagarde, the new IMF boss, who starts work in Washington on Wednesday." One wonders how different, it at all, DSK's probanker stance would have been had he still been the IMF head.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Banks Commence Wholesale, Unsolicited Mortgage-Debt Forgiveness





It was just a matter of time before wholesale debt-forgiveness became the primary source of wealth in the US. The time is now. The NYT reports that "big banks are going to borrowers who are not even in default and cutting their debt or easing the mortgage terms, sometimes with no questions asked. Two of the nation’s biggest lenders, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, are quietly modifying loans for tens of thousands of borrowers who have not asked for help but whom the banks deem to be at special risk." To be deemed in "special risk" one needs to simply have an Option ARM mortgage, and be underwater, even if still current on mortgage payments. End result: an up to 50% cut in the actual mortgage obligation. To wit: "Ms. Giosmas, who lives in Miami, was not in default on her $300,000 loan. She did not understand why she would receive this gift — although she wasted no time in taking it. Before Chase shaved $150,000 off her mortgage, Ms. Giosmas owed much more on her place than it was worth. It was a fate she shared with a quarter of all homeowners with mortgages across the nation. Being underwater, as it is called, can prevent these owners from moving and taking new jobs, and places the households at greater risk of foreclosure." Whether this is a strategic step by the banks who wish to avoid tens if not hundreds of billions in fraudclosure and putback related legal costs, charges and reserves is for now unclear, although all signs point to yes. Next up: everyone in America stops paying their mortgage, or demands a 50% haircut on existing debt, now that the example has been made. And in the meantime, banks will somehow continue to keep the mortgages, which they have now cut by up to half, at par on their books following some brand new, thoroughly senseless announcement by the FASB which says banks can mark anything to whatever price they chose in perpetuity. Because otherwise, the TBTF lenders will suddenly find themselves in a massive deficiency on their Tier 1 capital, also known as completely insolvent.

 

williambanzai7's picture

TRaNSFoRMeRS QE3





Dark Side of The Buffoon...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Eurogroup Approves Fifth Greek Bailout Tranche - Complete Statement And Math Fail





The very critical, and very insufficient 5th bailout tranche to Greece, has now been approved. From Reuters: "Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Saturday to disburse a further 12 billion euros to Greece and said the details of a second aid package for Athens would be finalised by mid-September. After a conference call, the 17 euro zone ministers agreed that the fifth tranche of the 110-billion-euro bailout agreed with Greece in May 2010 would be paid by July 15, as long as the IMF's board signs off on the disbursement. The IMF is expected to meet on July 8 to approve it. The payment will allow Greece to avoid the immediate threat of default, but the country still needs a second rescue package, which is also expected to total around 110 billion euros and which will now likely only be finalised in September. Between now and then, finance ministers will work on the "precise modalities and scale" of the private sector's involvement in the second aid package, which Germany hopes will eventually total around 30 billion euros. Greece said it expected a final decision on a second bailout programme by mid-September to keep the country financed. Eurogroup decided through a teleconference today to work out a new programme on time, before mid-September," Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said shortly after the finance ministers approved the 12 billion euro disbursement." More importantly, "The 12 billion euro payment will help Athens cover a 5.9 billion euro bond redemption in August, but the government still has a monumental hill to climb if it is to return to debt sustainability, with its debt-to-GDP ratio above 150 percent."

 

thetrader's picture

China’s Communist Party and it’s future





July 1st marked the 90 years anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC). China has undergone huge changes and will be the next super power. If we all end up working for the Chinese or not is to be seen, meanwhile we present some history on the Red Capitalist, that will drive China into the next World Super Power.

 

EconMatters's picture

90 Years of Communist China





The CPC (Communist Party of China) was founded on July 1, 1921 in Shanghai with a large working class support base. Throughout the past 60 years or so, China has never deviate much from socialism. With rapid growth, cracks are starting to surface.

 
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