Archive - Jul 2011

While there is nothing new in the just released Jim Rogers interview with the WSJ, it is always refreshing to hear him tell the truth, which is, of course that "the US has already lost its AAA status. Who cares what Moody's say." As for the response: "The market looks ahead: this is not the first time that the market has dealt with the fact that the US is bankrupt." As for his proclivity to buy long term US debt: "I wouldn't lend money to the US in US dollars for 30 years at 3%, or 4%, or 5% or you name the interest rate.... I shorted it June 10. I am short the US bond market as we speak." Great stuff as usual.

For those confused by the cornucopia of assorted debt ceiling "plans" out in circulation, Citi's Amitabh Arora has released the definitive guide for what plan does what in terms of proposed deficit reduction, probability of passage of the Congress, Senate and the President, and likely outcome to the US rating. As table 1 below shows, UBS' prescient call from last Thursday that a US downgrade is inevitable, was spot on. It also explains why the entire sellside industry, and media, have been in damage control over what now appears to be an inevitable AA rating of the world's reserve currency. Alas, just like with Lehman, nobody really has any idea what will happen to capital markets once the Poor Standards or Moody's headline of a AA cut hits the tape: one thing is certain - there are trillions in US invested money market funds, structured finance debt and munis that have rating mandates and demand a super secure (AAA) threshold, and especially an A-1+ short-term rating. Should there be a massive flow out of these securities and into other asset classes, the outcome is absolutely unpredictable. More importantly, Citi touches on a topic that has not seen prominent mention anywhere else: namely the acceleration of the GSEs status from conservatorship to receivership should there be no prompt resolution on the debt ceiling. For agency paper holders this may be a topic that merits much more diligence.

• Spain Will Require Regions to Curb Deficits, Its Finance Minister Says (WSJ)
• Obama cancels fundraising appearances amid stalled debt talks (CNN)
• Toying With Default: The President isn't serious about real spending cuts (WSJ Editorial)
• QE2 is coming to the UK: Cable Appeals for New Dose of Easing (FT)
• Lawmakers Still Divided as Debt Deadline Looms (Reuters)
• Rail Stocks Tumble in China, Hong Kong (Bloomberg)
• Clinton Assures China on U.S. Debt-Ceiling (Bloomberg)
• Messing With Medicare (Paul Krugman)

Despite frantic efforts to reach an agreement to raise the US debt ceiling, no concrete measures emerged during the weekend, which allied with Moody's downgrade of Greece's sovereign rating by three notches today, promoted risk-aversion in the market. European equities traded under pressure, weighed upon by financials, which in turn provided support to Bunds, whereas the Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads widened across the board. Particular widening was observed in the Belgian/German spread leading up to the bond auctions from Belgium, however the spread narrowed somewhat after they went through successfully. Elsewhere, CHF and JPY emerged as major beneficiaries of the risk-averse trade, whereas commodity-linked currencies traded lower. Moving into the North American open, the economic calendar remains thin, however Chicago Fed National Activity and Dallas Fed Manufacturing reports are scheduled for later in the session. Also, Texas Instruments, and Anadarko Petroleum are among some of the companies reporting their corporate earnings today.

Goldman performs the now traditional compilation of key global events and catalysts in the week ahead although there is really just one day that everyone is focusing on: Thursday: "House takes up Senate package, and potentially alters it. Under its rules, the House normally requires a bill to be publicly available for three days before voting on it, but might be able to bend the rules given the deadline. If support is lacking for the McConnell-Reid plan, as appears possible, the House may vote on an alternative package that pairs $300-$500bn in spending cuts with a debt limit increase of the same size. If it becomes clear during the Senate debate early next week that the Senate approach will not gain adequate Republican support in the House, House Republican leaders might move preemptively to pass a shorter extension rather than waiting to receive the Senate bill." Today the market did not crash, which foiled Obama's shock and awe plans (thank you Bernanke Put). However, if there is nothing by Thursday, then even the meanreversionbots will be powerless to just sit back and observe the massive carnage.

We posted this on Friday, but with the Norway news and all the headline distractions from Congress, many may have missed it, so here it is again. Stone McCarthy (one of the very best rates shops on Wall Street) has compiled the daily projected cash flow balances for the US Treasury. Here it is.

Gold surged 1.4% ($23) from $1,600.90/oz to a new record nominal of $1,624.07/oz within an hour of the open in Asia. Gold reached new highs due to continuing uncertainty and theatre regarding the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. Gold is higher in all currencies except the Swiss franc as the Swiss currency is also continuing to see flows. Silver surged 2% on the open from $39.69/oz to $40.48/oz and is higher in all currencies including the Swissie. There was some unusual selling in the electronic market prior to the open which saw prices fall from the close on Friday at $40.05/oz to $39.69/oz prior to the surge on the open. Asian indices fell with the Chinese indices in particular down sharply (CSI 300 -3.25%) on the U.S. debt impasse concerns. The high speed train crash may have contributed to the larger losses in China but there are also growing concerns about the Chinese financial system and economy. European indices have recovered from an initial sell off and peripheral Eurozone debt markets have seen some selling. Markets are spooked by the political theatre which continued in Washington over the weekend. An eleventh-hour solution is expected before next Tuesday’s August 2 deadline when the U.S. Treasury has said that it would not be able to borrow any more funds. At the same time, investors have cut their exposure to risky assets and the appalling fiscal situation in the U.S. is positive for gold and silver – whether the politicians come to an agreement or not.

A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc. Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

The perfect storm in risk off continues, as not only have European peripheral spreads once again commenced their trek wider, but FX flight to Swiss safety has resumed with a vengeance, with the USDCHF tumbling to a new all time low just above the 79 handle. The EURCHF is just above lows set a week earlier, following Moody's cutting Greece to Ca from Caa1, with a developing outlook, and the resulting final outcome of which will be a default of some nature. Also weaker are various peripheral spreads with Spanish, Portuguese and Italian Bund spreads and CDS pushing wider this morning. Another notable development is that Austria has decided to skip its August auction supposedly as "funding has been advanced already" although we all know what the real reason is. In Asia, markets closed broadly lower and the USDJPY continues to trade near all time lows, save for the flash crash plunge from March 17. According to Lee Hardman of BOTM-UFJ, "verbal jawboning by Japanese authorities of concerns over yen strength unlikely to be backed up by actions to weaken yen." Any attempt likely to be unsuccessful at present, he adds. The bottom line, which incidentally is always cash, and in this case the amount of it held in Greek banks can be seen by the chart below. We fully expect Greek bank deposit to decline by another €5 billion in the most recent period when the data is released.

I call super B.S.

On a surprisingly quiet night, during which many, chief among them the President of the US, were expecting some fireworks, it is easy to get lost in all in your face political farce, while ignoring, and even blissfully forgetting, the real financial details behind the scenes. Luckily we have Bill Buckler, whose latest edition of "The Privateer" puts everything right back in perspective, and reminds us that "in the period between December 2007 and July 2010, the Fed parcelled out $US 16.1 TRILLION in emergency loans to financial entities all over the world. Almost half of this - a total of $US 7.75 TRILLION - was loaned to four US banks. They were Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and the Bank of America. In July 2010 (the cut off date for this “audit”), total US stock market capitalisation was $US 15 TRILLION. The Fed provided about half of that." And here we are, haggling over $30 billion here, and $50 billion there...

After mysteriously, and briefly, appearing two weeks ago, and then again last week, we are once again experiencing one of those eerie "cross the streams" kind of moments, when both stocks and bonds are sold off (and gold jumps to record highs) on renewed concerns that the ponzi is unwinding and central planning committees around the world are furiously scratching their bald heads for contingency plans (that do not involve a Gulfstream and a crate of sold gold) which do not exist aside from doing the same old even more furiously. Below is how tonight's modest sell off in bonds looks like. In the absence of any additional newsflow (don't laugh, read this) we expect the mean reversion bots and buythedip-o-matics to get us green overnight, totally screwing up Obama's plan to scare the bejeezus out of any of his GOP adversaries on the debt hike issue courtesy of a market plunge. Elsewhere, be on the look out for yet another BOJ intervention should "newsflow" return as Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda says “will take resolute actions when necessary” in currency market. Then again he has been saying that for two weeks straight now, and absolutely nobody is taking the BOJ seriously any longer.

The debt ceiling debate that has dominated the headlines over the past month has been thoroughly infused with a string of unfortunate misconceptions and a number of blatant deceptions. As a result, the entire process has been mostly hot air. While a recitation of all the errors would be better attempted by a novelist rather than a weekly columnist, I’ll offer my short list. 

The The more disturbing jobs numbers are coming from the long-term unemployment.  A year after the official end of the recession, more than two million Americans have been out of work for 99 weeks or longer.  Some call the long-term unemployment the newest form of workforce discrimination as employers tend to favor job candidates already have a job.  

After decades of a debt financed contest to display the gaudiest plumage, is the average American happier? Considering more than 10% of all Americans are on anti-depressant drugs, I’d say not. The rat race for status, the appearance of wealth and visible faux displays of success do not increase well-being. If most of our earnings are spent on an empty game of status, we should not expect much improvement in our quality of life. There is something perverse about having more than enough. When we have more, it is never enough. It is always somewhere out there, just out of reach. This is the attitude that drives the criminals on Wall Street and politicians in Washington DC to constantly seek more power and wealth. The more we acquire, the more elusive enough becomes. Much of the debt financed purchases of consumer trinkets, baubles and gadgets is nothing more than an expensive anesthetic to deaden the pain of empty lives. Meanwhile, millions of Americans cling to their borrowed peacock feathers as the butcher of reality bears down upon them. The end won’t be pretty. The brave conquerors of strip malls across the land can enjoy their toys, gadgets, and treasures for awhile longer, but they need to remember one thing – Glory is fleeting and death can come suddenly.