Archive - Jul 2011

Sure enough, within hours of the rumored Senate "deal" on the Chained CPI which will magically whack off $500 billion from the deficit, here comes the president to address the debt talks, most likely praising Senate for reaching a consensus, and spinning it as a $3.7 trillion grand compromise which in reality is nothing but even more plundering from not only the future, but from those who are most reliant on COLA adjustments to keep up with real CPI. Watch it live below.

If XLF does break down, who is going to save the day?

Politico reports that the latest development in the constantly changing and oh so theatric "struggle" to find a compromise on how to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, is one which will not only not do anything to fix the deficit situation but will in fact set America back, as a key part of the "savings" will come precisely from the same change in the definition of inflation courtesy of the Chained CPI introduction, which the democrats previously blasted, and for good reason: because it will be an implicit theft from Social Security. Recall that the last time this was proposed the AARP started foaming in the mouth within minutes. The broad strokes of the plan are as follows: "The once moribund Senate “Gang of Six” regained new life Tuesday after Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn unexpectedly rejoined the group — and more senators are now coalescing around a new proposal that would cut the debt by as much as $3.7 trillion over the next decade.  According to a copy of the plan, obtained by POLITICO, the group would impose a two-step legislative process that would make $500 billion worth of cuts immediately followed by a second bill to create a “fast-track process” that would propose a comprehensive bill aimed at dramatically restructuring tax and spending programs. The plan calls for changes to Social Security to move on a separate track, and establishes an elaborate procedure for considering the measures on the floor." And here is the kicker: "The $500 billion in cuts would come from a range of sources, including shifting to a new consumer price index to make cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security." Care to wager what the bulk of this $500 billion will come from: that's right - social security, whose deliverable obligations will plunge as suddenly the inflation variable in the actuarial calculation will very mysteriously be cut courtesy of Senate-endorsed theft.

Now that the big banks have reported below are two charts that sum up how they are doing aside from the noise of "beating expectations."

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

Most of the tainted mortgage documents in question last fall were related to homes in foreclosure. But much of the suspect paperwork that has been filed since then is for refinancing or for new purchases by people who are in good standing in the eyes of the bank.

Greece is NOT the big problem for the EU. However, worldwide exposure to Greek debt is in the ballpark of $277 billion. So a default there would result in significant market dislocations. Now consider the exposure to a BIG Problem such as Spanish debt. In this situation, Great Britain is on the hook for $51 billion. The US is on the hook for $187 billion. France is on the hook for $224 billion. And Germany is on the hook for a whopping $244 billion.

For those confused by why so much is being made of the NOTW/News Corp phone hacking scandal and still unclear why it is such a watershed event for "free" media, below is the most comprehensive timeline compiled on the topic, courtesy of Bloomberg.

Enough with the Keynesian aggregates, already.

There is no joy in the top floor of 1251 Avenue of the Americas, where the P&L associated with a once mega profitable BAC position has dwindled to nothing. Following our earlier assessment that Bank of America reported yet another miserable quarter, the market has also caught on with the pure ugliness oozing form this report, and has punished the stock by sending it to multi year lows, at last check tumbling to $9.45 on heavy volume. There are still about 30 cents left until Paulson is completely underwater based on his cost basis. Which of course is completely irrelevant in the hedge fund world where only day to day P&L is relevant.

The trope du jour in Europe now appears to be that Greece will be temporarily expelled from the eurozone following the ECB agreement to allow Greece to default "temporarily" whatever the hell that means. Good luck pushing a freefall (not a prepack) through bankruptcy court (what bankruptcy court: Southern New York? Eastern Santorini? Upper Volta? Mars?) in the 1-2 weeks that the idiot bureaucrats think it would take. And while they can come up with whetever BS to paint the tape as idiot algos once again go berserk on positively emoting headlines at least until tomorrow when everything collapses again, and send the EUR higher, the truth is that the biggest refutation of this approach comes from none other than the ECB, which in a paper titled: "Withdrawal and Expulsion from the EU and EMU - some reflections" tells us that this is pretty much impossible. To wit: "This paper examines the issues of secession and expulsion from the European Union (EU) and Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It concludes that negotiated withdrawal from the EU would not be legally impossible even prior to the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, and that unilateral withdrawal would undoubtedly be legally controversial; that, while permissible, a recently enacted exit clause is, prima facie, not in harmony with the rationale of the European unification project and is otherwise problematic, mainly from a legal perspective; that a Member State’s exit from EMU, without a parallel withdrawal from the EU, would be legally inconceivable; and that, while perhaps feasible through indirect means, a Member State’s expulsion from the EU or EMU, would be legally next to impossible." The fact that the paper was written by a Greek back in 2009 is oddly ironic. That said, we assume this is merely yet another observation that will be ignored by the Statusquocrats who continue on irrelevant of facts of reality with their failed plan to preserve the EUR for a few more months no matter the taxpayer cost.

Hard to make this stuff up.

A simple 8-point plan would restore both the banking and the real estate sectors, and end the political dominance of the parasitic "too big to fail" banks. Craven politicos and clueless Federal Reserve economists are always bleating about how they want to fix the U.S. economy and restore "aggregate demand." OK, here's how to start...

Just because China was already delighted with Obama's reception of the Dalai Lama, here come John McCain and John Kerry warning China to mind it territorial waters, because apparently US national interests are threatened. Per the FT: “We are concerned that a series of naval incidents in recent months has raised tensions in the region,” said John Kerry, the Democratic chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, and John McCain, the former Republican presidential candidate. “If appropriate steps are not taken to calm the situation, future incidents could escalate, jeopardising the vital national interests of the United States.” The logical follow up is glairngly obvious but here it is: "China is likely to see the comments as a provocation as they echo remarks by Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, last year that infuriated Beijing. Speaking at the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi last July, Mrs Clinton angered Beijing by saying the US had “a national interest in freedom of navigation . . . in the South China Sea." What is surprising is that the US is dumb enough to bait China with such provocations as the US Treasury market is now, more than at any other point in the past 3 years, reliant on Chinese bond purchases. And for all those who claim that China has no other alternative where to recycle its trade surplus dollars, we bring you exhibit i) the EURUSD, where China sells dollars and buys euros, and ii) Eurozone bonds over the past months, which it has been gobbling up ravenously. So yes: it does have alternatives, and it may very well make a rather forceful statement to that extent.

Earlier today we saw what happens to investment banks when the Fed no longer clearly telegraphs its intentions vis-a-vis which asset has to be frontran (see Goldman post earlier). It is not just banks. In the absence of the Fed semaphore, it turns out even such "legendary" hedge funds as Soros' $25 billion Quantum are about as clueless as everyone else. Bloomberg reports that "the fund is about 75 percent in cash as it waits for better opportunities, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the firm is private." The reason: "“I find the current situation much more baffling and much less predictable than I did at the time of the height of the financial crisis,” Soros, 80, said in April at a conference at Bretton Woods organized by his Institute for New Economic Thinking. “The markets are inherently unstable. There is no immediate collapse, nor no immediate solution." But, but... what about relative and fundamental value, pair, cap and M&A arb? What about long-term investment opportunities in the growth of the world? What about arbing the so-called business cycle? Are none of those strategies worthy of investment? Or has ubiquitous central planning made the only profitable trade simply frontrunning the Fed's beta wave with as much leverage as possible? What's that you say? Yes? Thank you, the defense of formerly fair and efficient markets rests.