Archive - Jul 2011

Are the evil space aliens all just members of an even greater majority and thus our collective mental institution is simply planet Earth? If this is the case, then Earth’s so-called leadership are simply Warden’s assigned to keep the inmate population so distracted and disorientated that we never become self aware long enough to organize a resistance and jump the fence.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 18/07/11

All we ever asked was for the banks and their attorneys to FOLLOW THE LAW. No free houses, no windfalls for the homeowner, no debt forgiveness. JUST FOLLOW THE LAW... Because once we lose that, we lose society as we know it...

S&P, bored with taking the axe to various insolvent European governments, just went after the man, the myth himself. Next steps: News Corp. expands it media empire by purchasing McGraw Hill (soon to be followed by a tack on acqusition of former-Buffett darling MCO)? "The CreditWatch action reflects, in our opinion, the increased business and reputation risks associated with broadening legal inquiries. Since our last research update on July 13, the U.K. legal process has expanded and pressure from U.S. lawmakers has increased for an FBI probe. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in reference to phone-hacking allegations at "News of The World," an FBI official for the agency's New York office said, "We're aware of certain allegations pertaining to possible phone hacking by News Corp. personnel and we're looking into those charges." In our opinion this and other recent developments materially increase the reputational, management, litigation, and other risks currently faced by News Corp. and its subsidiaries. The last several days have been marked by the resignations of the chief executives of News International and Dow Jones, the issuing of summonses to key company executives to appear before Parliament on July 19, the arrest of a former senior company official, and a weakening of the company's executive bench strength."

As part of its most recent issue the New Yorker has released a must read interview with Ray Dalio - head of the world's biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater. Dalio's fund, which according to some may now be as large as $80 billion, continues to outperform even in this problematic environment, indicating that unlike various other managers who shall remain nameless, and whose wealth is built up almost exclusively on one trade (and that belonging to someone else in the first place), Dalio, despite rumors that he is preparing to leave his current position and is actively seeking a replacement, is still keenly able to adapt to changing macro conditions. Which is why his warning about future rounds of QE, which he sees as a certainty, should be heeded. Especially since it conforms 100% with the warnings of Zero Hedge - Dalio believes that future inevitable money printing will "lead to a collapse in currencies and bond markets." Dalio is even kind enough to give a time frame. "I think late 2012 or
early 2013 is going to be another very difficult period." He is, to say the least, quite diplomatic.

Dax, Italy, Spx, Dow etc Charts Update by www.thetrader.se

However, one thing is clear: we are fast approaching the REAL Crisis. And there’s no shortage of Black Swans to hit either. The Euro problem isn't going away. In fact, it's now spread from Greece to Italy and Portugal... the latter county now being officially rated as "junk. Meanwhile, China is experiencing a liquidity Crisis on par with the Lehman-collapse. In fact, a recent bond auction there failed to sell EVEN HALF of the bonds offered (there's not enough capital available).

No, really.

Here it comes again, courtesy of Google Trends. We will shortly start taking bets how many hours will pass before the CME hikes silver margins by another 100%, despite not lowering them once in the spot price drop from $50 to $32 over the past two months.

The barrage of political statements on the debt ceiling is reaching a crescendo. Following Eric Cantor, here is Ron Paul: "The debt ceiling debate is providing plenty of opportunity for political theater in Washington. Proponents of raising the debt ceiling are throwing around the usual scare tactics and misinformation in order to intimidate opponents into accepting more debt and taxes. It is important to distinguish the truth from the propaganda...Perhaps the most abhorrent bit of chicanery has been the threat that if a deal is not reached to increase the debt by August 2nd, social security checks may not go out. In reality, the Chief Actuary of Social Security confirmed last week that current Social Security tax receipts are more than enough to cover current outlays. The only reason those checks would not go out would be if the administration decided to spend those designated funds elsewhere. It is very telling that the administration would rather frighten seniors dependent on social security checks than alarm their big banking friends, who have already received $5.3 trillion in bailouts, stimulus and quantitative easing...We are headed for rough economic times either way, but the longer we put it off, the greater the pain will be when the system implodes...We need to stop allowing secretive banking cartels to endlessly enslave us through monetary policy trickery.

I remember the days of yore when the Wall Street Journal was a daily ritual of mine for business and financial news. Then some reptile bought the paper and turned it into a serious waste of money complete with gossip columns and an annoying subscription pay wall to boot.

Just out from Eric Cantor: "Tomorrow, the House will vote on Cut, Cap and Balance, a common sense proposal that will cut and cap federal spending to ensure that Washington begins to live within its means and put in place a Constitutional balanced budget amendment that will make balancing our budget the rule, not the exception. No one wants to default on our debt, and that is why House Republicans are bringing forth this plan to meet the President’s request for a debt limit increase with the necessary safeguards to make sure that we don’t continue to kick the can down the road. With millions of Americans out of work, we need to get the economy growing again and control spending here in Washington, and Cut, Cap and Balance is a path forward to do just that. As President Obama has not put forth a plan that can garner 218 votes in the House, I’d caution him against so hastily dismissing Cut, Cap and Balance.”

While we politely disagree with David Rosenberg on what is the ultimate flight to safety "security" (in our insolvent day and age perhaps the very word at the heart of capital markets needs to be changed), with him believing in bonds, predicated by a fear of an eventual deflationary crunch, while we ignore any instrument that is used a policy tool by the central planners and instead prefer precious metals, we always are impressed by his ability to synthesize reality in a few succinct bullet points (even if according to Eni's Recchi itself is irrelevant after saying that "Italy’s bond yields don’t reflect reality"). That is most certainly the case today when in his latest Breakfast with Dave letter to clients, Rosie summarizes the 7 reasons why "we should be worried."

The Guardian reveals a stunning development in the NOTW phone hacking aka MurdochGate case: "News of the World phone hacking whistleblower found dead: Sean Hoare, the former News of the World showbiz reporter who was the first named journalist to allege Andy Coulson was aware of phone hacking by his staff, has been found dead, the Guardian has learned. Hoare, who worked on the Sun and the News of the World with Coulson before being dismissed for drink and drugs problems, is said to have been found dead at his Watford home." For now there appears to be no evidence of foul play... for now: "The death is currently being treated as unexplained, but not thought to be suspicious. Police investigations into this incident are ongoing." Alas, as the full scale of this scandal unravels we are worried that this may be just the first of many tragic conclusions to what is rapidly becoming the biggest media scandal of the 21st century.

Just because someone is dead set on making Apple the only flight to safety in the world (and Gold of course, but unlike the iPad one can't really eat this particular tradition), around the time (10 minutes ago) Obama threatened he would veto the Republican proposed vote to raise the debt ceiling coupled with a cap on spending and balanced budget amendment to the constitution, the selling off spilled over to Treasurys, which as the chart below demonstrates are broadly lower across the curve, but most emphasized at the 30 Year spot, which as Russ Certo says (see below) is being "dragged to the slaughter house." Alas, judging by bank trading today the 2s30s steepening is completely irrelevant for bank stocks, for the simple reason that i) nobody needs any new mortgages and ii) nobody actually pays their mortgages. This is the second day since last week in which there is coordinated selling in stocks and bonds. Expect much more bond weakness with each day there is no bond deal.