Archive - Jul 2011

With market volume below abysmal levels, and with market breadth at the highest in what appears ever, many are wondering how it is possible that the S&P could move by about 70 points in one week. Simple. As the chart below shows, NYSE short interest for the week ended June 15 was the highest in 2011, at 13.5 billion shares, a jump of 333 million share in two weeks, which certainly persisted into the second half of the month, just in time for the market to realize that with QE2 ending, and nobody left to buy bonds, rates have nowhere to go but up. The net result is one of the most epic short squeezes in recent history, coupled with one of the most rapid moves out of bonds and into equities, and if judging by the 5 Year bond, the most rapid ever. What the message from all of this is, aside from the fact that higher interest rates are supposed to somehow be better for the economy, is that the entire market now has adopted a HFT modus operandi, where nobody even bothers to discount, and all the action is reactive. We are not sure about readers, but the fact that the market has lost its most fundamental feature - discounting - is just a little troublesome, if not surprising. Such is life under centrally planned capital markets.

With all the other excitement in the news, I'm wondering if any of you have noticed the ominous news reports about immanent round of Wall Street layoffs.

Ever wonder why the US is a shining city on a Ponzi hill? Wonder no more. Cause heeeeeere's reverse decoupling^TM.

Will phosphate be bigger than Potash? These Montreal hedge fund managers think so and they're betting big on some small Quebec mining companies...

Ever since the famous Stanley Druckenmiller Op Ed published in early May, which called for an outright default of the US, saying it would not be
the end of the world, and in fact the US would emerge stronger as a
result of finally taking the first steps to getting its fiscal house in
order, there has been a visible shift regarding the US debt ceiling discussion, with republicans (so far) digging in and refusing to budge on the issue. After all, on the surface Druckenmiller is absolutely correct: with interest rates near record lows for the past 3 years, interest payments would be manageable for a long time even if general rates were to surge due to the Treasury's fixing of low cash coupons over the past 3-4 years, amounting to about 20-30% of all annual tax receipts. There is however one very big problem with this argument, one which we pointed out back in April 2010 when we said that "What people don't realize is that...unless the UST can roll its debt not on a monthly
but now weekly basis in greater and greater amounts, the interest rate
doesn't matter. All it takes is one semi-failed auction and it's game over as hundreds of billions in bills become payable." Enter the always forgotten maturing debt argument. And as a just released presentation by the Bipartisan Policy Center titled "Debt Limit Analysis" reminds us, aside from the actual deficit funding math, which is that in August there is a $134.3 billion cash shortfall that has to be funded with debt, there is a far greater risk. Or, put numerically, 467.4 billion risks. This is the amount of debt that matures through August 31, and has to be rolled over or the US is bankrupt... in every sense of the word. Once again, America's politicians and media get broadsided by the definition of gross versus net. Because, in reality, the inability to issue more debt post August 3 means a halt to all new debt issuance. Which, unfortunately because it means Geithner's scaremongering is actually correct, would imply the end for the debt ponzi.

The take home point with all of this is that the Fed is in fact powerless to address, let alone fix, the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. Indeed, the Fed’s key role in creating it was to let Wall Street dictate the Fed’s moves. And now that the Fed is supposed to solve the Financial Crisis, we’re finding out not only do they have no clue how to do it, but they’re even aware of this fact

I tend to be years early on identifying trends, but three that will make a difference going forward are what I call "The Three Ds": Delegitimization, Definancialization and Deglobalization. Broadly speaking, the global economy and thus globalization and its sibling, financialization, depend on the legitimacy of centralized institutions. These include nation-state governments, international organizations such as the IMF, central banks, the mainstream global media, and various Central State agencies tasked with reporting data accurately, for example the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the U.S. and equivalent agencies in other trading blocs. By far the grandest experiments in legitimization of the past 20 years are the European Union (EU) and its common currency, the euro, and China's one-party rule combining a command economy with a quasi-free enterprise model, i.e. "Capitalism with Chinese characteristics." The vortex of insolvency gripping Europe is rapidly chewing through what remains of the legitimacy of the euro and the EU institutions tasked with overseeing the financial sector...As for the euro and the EU's grand integration experiment, we can turn to George W. Bush's inimitable phrase for a summary: this sucker's going down. The subprime mortgage meltdown offers a cogent preview of Europe's future.

This is how we handle things down in Toon Town.--Judge Doom

As the table below demonstrates, the bond vigilantes are now eviscerating the belly of the US Treasury curve: the weekly percentage move higher in the 5 Year yield is now the largest...Ever. For those wondering if PIIGS should be renamed to PIIS following the brief rescue of G, perhaps it is time to officially rename it PIISA.

Just out from Reuters:

• STRAUSS-KAHN ACCUSER ADMITTED SHE LIED TO GRAND JURY ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED FOLLOWING PURPORTED ATTACK - D.A.
• STRAUSS-KAHN ACCUSER CLEANED ANOTHER ROOM AFTER INCIDENT, CONTRARY TO WHAT SHE TOLD GRAND JURY - NY PROSECUTOR
  

More as we get the full letter sent out by D.A. Cyrus Vance.

The much-awaited filing of the Farmville creator's $1 billion IPO can be found here.

Some highlights:

• Q1 2011 revenue: $235.4MM, up from $100.9MM YoY, LTM revenue $731.9 MM
• Q1 Net Income: $11.8MM up from $6.4MM YoY, LTM Net Income: $96.2MM
• Q1 Adjusted EBITDA: $112.2MM, up from $93.5MM, LTM EBITDA: $411.4MM
• Adjusted EBITDA definition also excludes stock based comp and change in deferred revenue
• Cash: $995.6MM, almost the same size as the entire proposed IPO
• Working Capital: $603.4MM

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

DSK who has just left New York court, has been advised he will be released on his own recognizance, however the prosecution is not dropping its case, as expected, he will not regain his passport, he will regain his cash bond back, and will appear in court again on July 18. Perhaps the best approach at this point is to get the maid's story on all the latest developments that have emerged instead of having an infinity+1 conspiracy versions of what may have happened.