Archive - Aug 17, 2011

Allow me a ramble down history lane to make a point.

Lately, readers have sent us links to a few research papers extolling the virtues of HFT, namely, that they provide liquidity, reduce spreads, and probably cure cancer. At first, it appeared that some of these papers were written based on data from another planet, but, upon closer inspection, we realized that they were simply based on very old data. You see, as HFT races towards zero, the data it generates decays just as fast. In other words, any research paper written just 6 months ago, or one that does not take into account recent data, might as well have been written for people on another planet, because it won't accurately describe what is going on in the market today. Take a look at the images below, which show just how much, and how quickly trading has change since 2007. We plot U.S. equity quote and trade data for each minute of the trading day, from the beginning of 2007 through August 16, 2011 (about 1165 trading days). Note the significant changes from late 2009 (light green to aqua-marine). That was a year that many Pro-HFT research papers are based on. If the research paper predates 2011, or worse, ignores recent data, it's probably not worth the paper it's printed on.

Unfortunately, we are not kidding: not even a day after Obama came pleading for more fiscal stimulus, and already California governor Jerry Brown is saying that the most insolvent state in America should proceed... with a high-speed rail project. Forget that China is in the process of shutting down 54 of its own: you see, this is precisely what California needs to give the optics it is the next Chinese miracle. Next up: 8% GDP growth, the expansion of BRIC to BRICC, a second, very much empty, Los Angeles built deep in the Mojave desert, toys covered in led paint, and a California wave of reverse fraudcap mergers. And as long as everyone pretends to go along with it, and sticks their head in the sand (following an AAAA ratings upgrade by Moodys and Fitch of course for solidarity's sake), this plan just may work....At a price of $43 billion, or just the notional amount of two average Treasury auctions.

Following the recent riots in the UK, it seemed there was only one safe bastion from the marauding bands of indignants, labor unions, and  general hooligans: Germany. That is, alas, no more. During the past two days, German protests against globalization, read Germany's undertaking to trade export strength for a joint European currency and a bailed out Club Ded periphery, have begun manifesting themselves albeit with a twist. As Bloomberg reports, in the past two days, arsonists have set fire to 26 cars in Berlin, mainly Mercedes, BMW, and Audis, which brings the total number of torched cars to 138, more than double all of 2010. "The arsonists want to hit what they say are ‘Fat Cats,’” Berlin police spokesman Michael Gassen said. A special unit is investigating the fires as political crimes after the police received letters claiming responsibility that derided globalization, gentrification and rising rents, he said." It appears that while the Arab Spring was started by the self-immolation of a fruit seller protesting more or less the same things, that level of self-sacrifice is strangely missing in Europe's (and maybe the world's) most prosperous, and entitled, nation. As such we doubt much if anything will come out of this, suffice to way that Joe LaVorgna will promptly raise his German GDP due to replacement costs associated with rebuilding the burnt down "fat cat" cars. Also, if this is the apex of protesting, we doubt that Italy and the rest of the insolvent PIIGS has much to worry about Germany pulling away the subsidized methadone IV drip.

In the first quarter of 2011 (Q111), net gold hedging was reported by GFMS and Société Générale. A gold mining company may hedge its production on expectations of falling gold prices in order to lock in high prices and possibly avoid losses. As gold hits one nominal high after another, is such behavior a sign that the bull market in gold is over? To answer that question, we had a look into Boliden’s (T.BLS) latest interim report. The GFMS study mentions that in Q111, Boliden was one of the most active hedgers; it was accountable for 58% of gross hedging activity during that period. Let’s have a closer look at the company.

One of the more notable events of the past few weeks is that the formerly unbreakable IYR REIT index not only broke its unprecedented rise, but literally imploded, plunging to levels not seen since mid-2010. Which means it may well be time to start sniffing around into the real meat of the underlying market: CMBS. And by the looks of things the perfect storm for CMBS, which has so far been very resilient, save a few jitters since the begining of August, is coming. First, the WSJ took aim at CMBS last night, writing that "Commercial real estate could be losing its cachet as a safe-haven investment due to concerns about the economy and reduced access to bank financing for landlords." And now, Bloomberg follows up with an article based on the Deutsche Bank report below, which disusses how "Losses on securities tied to commercial-property loans are poised to climb as lenders pull back, choking off funding to some borrowers with debt coming due." Lastly, the recent mutiny by S&P to rate CMBS deals which led to the pulling of a $1.5 deal by Goldman and Citi, only means the variables in the market could easily drive away the marginal buyers who until now had hoped the Fed would never allow the commercial real estate market to topple, collapsing rents and bankrupting retailers notwithstanding. As for Deutsche Bank, here is the punchline: "The environment for commercial real estate financing has been dramatically reshaped in the last few weeks. Capital is more scarce and acceptable leverage limits have decreased, which limits proceeds available to borrowers and restricts real estate values." Translation: the levels across CMBX 1-5 are likely about to start the mean reversion walk much higher from current indications. We expect virtually all vintages of CMBX AJ to widen to 1,000 if not more over the next few months.

In addition to the nationalization of his gold insutry, Chavez earlier also announced that he would recover virtually all gold that Venezuela hold abroad, starting with 99 tons of gold at the Bank of England. As the WSJ reported earlier, "The Bank of England recently received a request from the Venezuelan government about transferring the 99 tons of gold Venezuela holds in the bank back to Venezuela, said a person familiar with the matter. A spokesman from the Bank of England declined to comment whether Venezuela had any gold on deposit at the bank." That's great, but not really a gamechanger. After all the BOE should have said gold. What could well be a gamechanger is that according to an update from Bloomberg, Venezuela has gold with, you guessed it, JP Morgan, Barclays, and Bank Of Nova Scotia. As most know, JPM is one of the 5 vault banks. The fun begins if Chavez demands physical delivery of more than 10.6 tons of physical because as today's CME update of metal depository statistics, JPM only has 338,303 ounces of registered gold in storage. Or roughly 10.6 tons. A modest deposit of this size would cause some serious white hair at JPM as the bank scrambles to find the replacement gold, which has already been pledged about 100 times across the various paper markets. Keep an eye on gold in the illiquid after hour market. The overdue scramble for delivery may be about to begin.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 17/08/11

If you thought the first Round of the Financial Crisis was bad, wait until you see the next one. Indeed, I fully expect that what’s coming is going to be 2008 on STEROIDS. I’m talking about market crashes, civil unrest, riots, bank holidays and more.

In all the excitement over the recently uber-broken market, some may have forgotten America has a muni problem. Here is Fitch with a reminder, as it downgrades New Jersey general obligations from AA to AA-, and continues: "The downgrade of New Jersey's GO bond rating to 'AA-' from 'AA' reflects the mounting budgetary pressure presented by significant and growing funding needs for the state's unfunded pension and employee benefit liabilities, particularly in the context of a weak economic recovery, a high debt burden, limited financial flexibility, and persistent structural imbalance."

Flashing headlines:

• GRASSLEY ASKS SEC TO ACCOUNT FOR ALLEGED DOCUMENT DESTRUCTION
• SENATE'S GRASSLEY MAKES REQUEST IN LETTER TO SEC'S SCHAPIRO
• GRASSLEY: WHISTLEBLOWER CITED `UNLAWFUL DESTRUCTION' OF RECORDS
• GRASSLEY CITES ALLEGATIONS IN LETTER FROM SEC WHISTLEBLOWER

As a reminder, Grassley is after Stevie Cohen. If Mary Schapiro indeed willingly destroyed docs that exposed SAC as a criminal organization, she is going to prison. And if indeed this is true, in the aftermath of Madoff, that is where she belongs.

The first (of many) 21st century expropriations of the only true money begins today, after Hugo Chavez just announced that he will "nationalize the gold industry, including extraction and processing, and use its output to boost the country's international reserves." And who can blame him: he is merely doing what FDR did so well back in 1933 with executive order 6102. Our only advice is that he should wait before he sells: with the only option for the central planners now that we are reentering the downslope of the depression, being, as always, to print more money (it can be called anything, but at the end of the day the principle is clear), there is little probability of gold declining substantially for the foreseeable future. As for foreign investors in Venezuela who opened gold mines, we can only hope they were not all that surprised: "The move follows a dispute between his government and foreign miners who say the rules limiting the amount of gold that can be exported from the South American nation hurt their efforts to secure financing and create jobs. The gold industry will be just the latest part of the economy to be put under state control by the socialist leader, who said he would issue the necessary decree in the coming days and called on the military to help control the sector." The good news: gold may finally dip modestly which will simply provide yet another entry point for everyone (increasingly more and more) who has taken Jeremy Grantham's advice and is now fighting the Fed.

The political and social environments in the US are growing increasingly anti-loose money from the Fed. The Fed knows this which is why we’re seeing dissent internally (see Dallas Fed President Dick Fisher’s comments from earlier today).So absent some kind of catastrophic event, QE 3 isn’t coming any time soon. Which means the floor has come out from under stocks (it just did). Which means…

Billionaires and POTUS are not welcome in this thread...

Funny how much can change in a month. After everyone was making fun of David Rosenberg as recently as June, not a single pundit who owns a suit and can therefore appear on CNBC dares to mention the original skeptic. Why? Because he has was proven correct (once again) beyond a reasonable doubt (and while we may disagree as to what asset class is best held into the terminal systemic collapse, Rosenberg has been one of the most steadfast and consistent predictors of the 'non-matrixed' reality in the world). Yet oddly enough there are still those who believe that a double dip (or, more accurately, a waterfall in the current great depressionary collapse accompanied by violent bear market rallies) is avoidable. Well, here, in 12 bullet points, is Rosie doing the closest we have seen him come to gloating... and proving the the double dip or whatever you want to call it, is here.