Archive - Aug 8, 2011

We though we had seen it all... Then JPM's Colin Fenton came out with a prediction of gold hitting $2500 by year end. That's right: JP Morgan... $2500...."Gold and sugar have potential to run a lot higher. It has been clear for weeks that the prompt CMX gold price has been building in a rising probability of a reflaring of financial crisis, gaining by 9.7% since June 30 as the MSCI World Equity index dropped by 10.1%. The correlation in daily price changes between these two assets has dropped to –0.09 from +0.29 over the prior year. Gold’s correlation against TIPS has doubled to 0.35 from 0.18. Against Italian and Spanish 5-year sovereign CDS prices, the gold correlation has moved to 0.27 and 0.32, from 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. Before the downgrade, our view was that cash gold could average $1800 per oz by year end. This view will likely now prove to be too conservative: spot gold could drive to $2500 per oz or higher, albeit on very high volatility." Funny, when discussing yesterday's Goldman upgrade of gold we said: "Next up: everyone else." Little did we know...  Also, it is unclear if Blythe precleared this client note. But at this point it probably does not matter.

More shortly. And yes, just as ZH predicted an hour ago.

With Bank of America getting taken to the woodshed, we can only hope that Paulson managed to sell all of his stock in the name, or otherwise just like Bruce Berkowitz is organizing a call to defend Bank of America on Wednesday, Bank of America would have to organize a call today to protect JP from his LPs. Alas, Bank of America is just the start of Paulson's problems. For a just as big problem we shift our attention to the next worst bank in America, Citigroup, which as the excerpt below demonstrates, was a bragging point in the firm's January 2011 letter. Alas, there is little to brag about these days. Which is why we wish to caution investors to be vary careful with liquidation-like selloffs in gold. Should D-Day strike at Paulson, the firm's multi-billion GLD "gold share class" will likely have to be sold very fast to preserve liquidity. When that happens we may see a 20-30% correction in gold in one day. This is just a theoretical warning, and we hope to have some sense of when, if at all, it would take place. But just something to keep in the backs of your heads...

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

With Bank of America investors finally realizing it is game over for the company as a going concern, at this point there are just two options for Brian Moynihan: the spin off of CFC as a bad bank, backstopped by the Fed, or, well, Chapter 11, which for a bank is essentially liquidation (and with CDS trading up 50 bps to 260 a bankruptcy seems increasingly inevitable). It also means that another TARP is on the way. And once America realizes that another several trillion have to be put into its insolvent banking sector, it will get quite violent. The biggest irony: it is AIG which takes down the financial system for the second time after its lawsuit against BAC filed last night kills Bank of America.

Since the stock market is in the news (perhaps as a result of trillions of dollars/euros/yen/yuan/quatloos having suddenly vanished from millions of accounts), it seems timely to examine the key correlation between stocks and the U.S. dollar. As I have often noted here, this "big picture" correlation is a simple see-saw: when the dollar is scraping bottom, stocks are at their highs, and when the dollar is up then stocks are tanking. At the risk of alienating chart-averse readers, I've marked up the charts of the S&P 500 (SPX) and the U.S. dollar index (DXY). For those who aren't going to look at the charts, what they suggest is that there are really only three possibilities in play:

A. Stocks go up and the dollar drops to new lows

B. Stocks fall and the dollar rises significantly, a pattern that has repeated several times since 2007

C. The see-saw breaks and stocks and the USD rise or fall together.

And..... the idiots are back in charge.

• GREEK SECURITIES REGULATOR BANS SHORT SELLING FROM AUG 9
  
• GREEK SECURITIES REGULATOR BANS SHORT SELLING FOR 2 MONTHS

No seriously, it will work this time. We promise.

Goodbye Greek stock market. For a case study of what happens next, check out Vietnam.

Fiat (F IM) and Pirelli (PC IM) shares suspended for excessive losses. That is all.

So much for that advice from Comcast's financial comedy and wealth destruction channel earlier today that buyers are stepping in...

Behold - the S&P priced in gold. The current print is below the March 2009 low which simply means that as of today the return for gold since the March 2009 lows is now higher than stocks. Expect this line to keep going lower now that everyone realizes the Fed has no other choices than to print, print, print, further destroying the incremental value of fiat and further cementing the value of non-dilutable instruments like gold.

Those who were hoping only government and government-related entities are about to be skewered by S&P, we have some unpleasant news: according to Reuters Insider: "Announcements should be expected this morning about effects to corporations from S&P’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating, David Beers, head of S&P’s sovereign ratings." This means financials, the corporate group most at risk to the US downgrade, are about to be shellacked. And, as we pointed out previously, a 2 notch downgrade in Morgan Stanley will result in a $1.4 billion margin call. We haven't done the math on the other TBTFs but something tells us Bank of America is in the same boat (and isn't it ironic if AIG also ends up seeing a collateral spring as a result of the US downgrade). Are we about to see the first (of many) truly unexpected consequence of the US downgrade? Stay tuned.

Everyone who may have just heard the unprecedented rant by Jim Cramer bashing Bank of America, now that it is at its multi-year lows, may be a little confused. After all it was just on January 6, 2011, when Bank of America was at its multi year highs, that he released the following "report" titled "10 Reasons to Buy Bank of America." We all enjoy the laugh, but we ask Comcast? Is this is the comedian that CNBC wishes to destroy any remaining viewership it has and commit ratings suicide?

Here we go as S&P starts going down the list of all US-related issuers

• Options Clearing Cut to AA+ From AAA by S&P, Outlook Negative - there goes no counterparty risk
  
• Natl Securities Clearing Cut to AA+ from AAA by S&P, Outlook Neg - there goes no clearing risk
• DTCC Cut to AA+ from AAA by S&P, Outlook Neg - there go all your stock certificates

Many, many, many more coming, not least of all will be 7,000 muni issuers. Watch those copulas ladies and gents. And for those at various CVA desks: our condolences. You are about to have a very, very ugly day.

Last night it was the world growth dynamo (China), now it's Europe's growth dynamo (Germany): DAX (and STOXX) both enter bear market territory (20% correction) following the Shanghai Composite. The entire world is on its way to the 25% correction we said is inevitable before QE3 is started.