Archive - Sep 22, 2011

Special Note: In this latest Alt-Market piece we try something a little different; short fiction based on fact. Make no mistake; while the characters and events in this story are products of imagination, the issues presented and their probable consequences are anything but fantasy. The message? What will you choose to be in the face of hardship and crisis; a mountain? An impassable obstacle to tyranny? Or, a silent and beaten passenger of the Redline?

As usual getting Art Cashin's pragmatic take on something as important as the Fed's decision (which at this rate will need to be revised very soon), is quite a morning coffee, or for some, "fermentation", treat.

Seat belts on. Impact is imminent.

A dramatic Hail Mary appeared in the FX markets earlier this morning following the circulation of a rumor, since attributed to Goldman sales, that the FRBNY is preparing to slash its FX swap line with the ECB rate, which would in turn make it virtually free to borrow Dollars from the Fed and make the Libor funding market completely irrelevant as the Fed would give dollars to European banks for virtually no money. Frankly, we will believe it when we see it, especially when one considers the source. Why it is none other than the firm's Dominic Wilson who reminded us today that Goldman clients should "Stay long EUR/$, opened at 1.4085 on 18 March 2011, with a target of 1.50 and a stop on a close below 1.35, now at 1.3545"... well make that 1.339 when the supposedly Goldman-initiated rumor hit and has since pushed the currency to nearly 1.35. The problem is this rumor is, without confirmation, patent bullshit, as the last thing the Fed need is for Republican to take it to task, this time completely justified, for sending dollars abroad on a cost-free basis just to bail out Europe again. We would fade this rumor all the way, especially with the EURUSD about 100 pips rich to pre-rumor fair value. Furthermore should the EURUSD close below 1.35, which it will, look for major stop loss signals to be activated which purely on technicals will send the EUR far lower.

The big news yesterday was not of the twist type, but of another dance number (or slumber) between Bernanke and Obama.

As early as July, we pointed out the increasingly likely endgame in Europe with regard to the EFSF and centralizing/concentrating credit risk. Well sure enough, sovereign risk has risen dramatically for Germany (among many others obviously) as traders realized standing on the shoulders of giants does nothing but push them further into the dirt. What is becoming more worrisome, and dramatically escalating, is the rise in sovereign CDS relative to government bond yields - or the so-called 'basis' - as it becomes ever more clear that government-bond-yield-by-mandate may not be as 'real' a measure of the risk-free rate as CDS.

Time for Rule 49?

Yesterday's downgrade of BAC was potentially problematic for credit markets.  I am less concerned about the holding company downgrade.  Downgrading the bank to A2 from Aa3 could become problematic.  That is the entity most derivative counterparties will face.  A2 is still fine, but I suspect many counterparties will be having meetings over the next few days to discuss how comfortable they are facing BAC as a derivative counterparty.  It might be wrong, and unnecessary, but it is something that will be occurring.  BAC should be doing everything in their power to address this potential risk immediately. The risk of ratings downgrades to a bank is twofold.  On a basic level, it may reduce the flows they see as counterparties prefer to trade with higher rated entities for their derivative trades.  That is manageable.  The bigger, and far more problematic issue, will be if firms cut their lines to that bank.  This would cause banks to unwind or assign existing trades, or to buy protection on the downgraded banks to "hedge their hedge".  Protection buying would drive their spread higher (if this was all exchange traded, it wouldn't be an issue).  Unwinds could force the bank to raise some cash.  Most hedge funds will have one way collateral agreements with banks, so that on any positive mark to market, they are posting collateral to the bank, which the bank can typically use "rehypothecate".  Hedge funds will unwind or assign profitable trades, which will force the bank to return collateral to the hedge fund.  It is a subtle, but painful, way for a bank to experience a run.  It happened with Bear and with Lehman. 

Another day, another chance for the BLS to fudge jobs data by revising last week's claims miss to an even worse number: sure enough last week's -428K drop was just revised to -432K. Which means that this week's consensus miss, which was at 420K, is irrelevant, with the weekly number coming at 423K because all headlines will blare than claims actually declined by 9K. The game has become so old (and we mean old: the BLS has been doing this very same fudge for 2 years in a row now) we are stunned anyone falls for it. And one thing that will also most certainly be ignored is that the 423K number is really 427K because as the BLS reported, a -3,776 drop in claims in Texas was due to "Fewer layoffs due to holiday" - well the holiday is over. Lastly, and most troubling for the economy is that another massive 103,000 people dropped off extended benefit claims in one week. Just as troubling is that 1.7 million people have dropped off the government's dole in the past year as can be seen in the chart below: these are people that haven't gotten a job, they have just stopped being counted by the govt.

While nobody will actually care about today's set of high frequency economic updates, seeing how the world's implosion has now been validated and it is all up to the global central banks to bail us out (which they will fail at miserably), as has been anticipated on this blog for months, here is what the algos, who are the only ones trading US economic headlines now, have to look forward to.

• The FOMC decided to implement “Operation Twist”, however provided a downbeat assessment of the US economy yesterday, and warned of “significant” downside risks to the economic outlook
• Manufacturing PMI reports from China and the Eurozone came out worse than expected
• According to an article in the FT, BNP Paribas is in talks with Qatar to secure investment. However, the report was later denied by co.’s CEO
• The USD-Index traded higher amid risk-averse trade, which in turn weighed upon EUR/USD, GBP/USD and commodity-linked currencies

If you think this morning has a September 12, 2008 smell and feel to it... You are right. Complete and total CDS bloodbath in sovereigns and fins means a global bailout may not be imminent, but the market sure demands it as contagion has been upgraded to gangrene. Bernanke has now officially blown it with the twist and Mr. Market demands a $1 trillion+ LSAP, or else...

While the bulk of the re-recessionary fears this morning came out of China where economic contraction is now fully raging, Europe is not helping after both Manufacturing and Services Flash PMIs came in worse than expected, and far worse than previous, and more notably with the Services PMI printing below 50, or contracting for the first time in 2 years. In a nutshell, Manufacturing came in at 48.4, Services  at 49.1, both missing consensus of 48.5 and 51.0, and far lower than prior 49.0 and 51.5 respectively. As Reuters notes, "None of the 37 economists polled by Reuters had predicted that services activity would contract and this is the first time the index has been below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction since August 2009....It was a similar picture in the manufacturing sector, which had driven a large part of the bloc's recovery. The factory index dropped to its lowest level in two years at 48.4, slightly below expectations of a fall to 48.5. "The numbers are still consistent with some GDP growth, so it does not signal recession just yet," said Martin Enlund at Handelsbanken. "That said, we are seeing a slow-motion train crash in the euro area, where credit contraction risks leading to a new recession by Christmas unless governments face up to the task swiftly and forcefully." In other words, on one hand I) the perpetual shining beacon in Europe: economic growth against all odds courtesy of Germany, has now been dimmed, and on the other, II) the liquidity run on Europe's banks is raging even harder, especially with II being reinforced by I, and immediately sending BNP 3M USD Libor from 0.385% to a year+ high of 0.39% as the average Li(e)bor has risen for nearly the 50th consecutive day from 0.356% to 0.358%.

Something odd is happening. Germans are leaving the ECB. First Weber, then Stark. Why would senior German officials withdraw from the ECB just at a time when they should seek greater influence? One explanation: to avoid having a conflict of interest once Germany re-instates the Bundesbank as the leading central bank of Europe. Currently, Germany and Greece are engaged in a game of chicken; the Germans do not want the first “domino” of the Euro zone to fall, and the Greeks know that. Each time Greece nears default, Germany agrees to a last-minute stick save without offering a far-reaching solution. Their aim is to limit the funds actually flowing to Greece. This, of course, guarantees the crisis to simmer on indefinitely, preventing a recovery in Southern Europe. But, as with every game, this one will have to end one day. Especially as German and Dutch 5-year CDS approach 100 bps. France’s CDS rocket has long left the launch pad, reaching 190 bps recently.

It's possible that the problems in sovereign debt in Europe continue to get worse rather than better, because we are treating the wrong "disease". Everyone has been talking about the risk of "contagion". That makes me think of scientists working in pristine high tech labs searching for a cure, of technicians working on computer models, estimating spread patterns, and citizens walking around with face masks to stop the spread of the "disease". What we have is gangrene.