Archive - Sep 2011

The onslaught of half fiction, half lies from Greece continues after the Greek government was forced to deny the latest set of truth leaks, in this case that Greece is preparing for an orderly default, which it obviously is: there is no way the country can hope to implement the terms of the July 21 bail out now, especially with a dead silence on the terms of the bond exchange offer which means it has failed miserably. What it is certainly right about is that there is no truth to a debt haircut being just 50%: it will be far more, and the reality is it the haircut severity probably won't have much of an impact - most French and German banks have long since wound down their Greek exposure. The key question is how long before the other PIIGS follow suit. Another important question is whether the orderly default will come before the next IMF capital injections is provided to the country or after, and if it will be too late for an orderly bankruptcy then, and instead we get a disorderly one. From Reuters: "Greece denied on Friday newspaper reports that one option in the debt crisis would be an orderly default with a 50 percent haircut for bondholders. "Greece denies the reports," a senior government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity." And we all know what official denials mean...

Yesterday's last minute short covering rally has been all but eliminated and then some, on fresh European concerns following a Deutsche Bank report that the agreed writedown of 21% from the July 21 second Greek bailout agreement could be executed, and that instead an orderly default with an up to 50% haircut is being considered. Generally, broad concerns that Greece can and will go bankrupt any minute once again dominate and have undone any favorable market sentiment from yesterday's G20, also known as the Full Tilt Ponzi Group, announcement, which was also followed up by an ECB statement that the central bank would do everything to prevent further contagion. Judging by the risk waterfall this morning, and the liquidations in gold (driven by a vague but ever stronger rumor of a winddown at a GLD-heavy hedge fund that is now down 50% YTD), virtually nobody believes anything coming out of any European institution. Alas, this is what two years of relentless accrued lying will do to your reputation. Adding fuel to the fire is a report from Credit Suisse that the chance of a "general European break up" is about 10% and that European banks would fall by about 40% on a disorderly Euro breakup and that peripheral European banks' net foreign liabilities would rise by €800 billion. In other words, European banks would blow up, which is nothing really new. Next, we hear from Dexia which yesterday got annihilated and today is down another 2.5% despite promises from the Belgian central bank governor Luc Coene that the bank is not in trouble and has not sought dollars from the ECB in a long time: obviously an attempt to prevent an all out attack on the insolvent bank, which as is well known bypasses the ECB and goes straight to the Fed for emergency funding. Overall, there is a very distinct sense that it's the end of the world as we know it, and the market does not feel all that fine anymore.

This time really is different! Einstein has his definition of inssanity, but Middleton says the definition of a cental banker/planner is more and more borrowing & expecting solvency this time around.

Remember all those daily rumors (prmarily courtesy of the FT) that either China, or Japan, or Europe itself would bailout Europe (yeah, don't ask). Well we can put them all to rest...for at least a few more hours. Because in the battle of inverse counter disinformation, it is important to refute the rumors you yourself have created just so next time the same rumor is spread it has some impact.... Unfortunately said impact will be less, much less, with every single iteration, until just like central bank intervention, its impact is lost in the noise. Per Businessweek: "Officials from China and Japan, the world’s second- and third-biggest economies, indicated that their support for Europe will have limits  and the region needs to solve its own debt crisis. Japanese Finance Jun Azumi said in Washington today that while his nation can buy European Financial Stability Facility bonds if needed, there is no blank check. “At the margin we can do quite a bit to help,” Chinese central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang said in a panel discussion yesterday at the International Monetary Fund in the same city. At the same time, “the real solution of the European sovereign debt crisis has to be done by Europeans themselves." Good luck in that whole Europeans coming up with a solution: after all it was mere hours ago that France’s Baroin said that the Eurozone is "open to support from others." Translation: "Show us the money." In other news, the countdown for the latest European bailout rumors from the FT is now on.

Just when it seemed that Goldman's all time unbest sell side analyst, FX "guru" Thomas Stolper, may actually have a strike at bat with his long suffereing EURUSD call which has had a worse Sharpe ratio than even John Paulson's hedge fund over the past 12 months, we are sad to inform our readers that Stolper is and continues to be the perfect contrarian signal (pari passu with that other all time fade: Barton "Notorious" Biggs) with a 0.000 statistical average (which, as everyone knows, is just as valuable as a 1.000). Because just as we predicted earlier today, when we said that "Goldman is about to announce it was just stopped out on its 1.55 EURUSD "tactical" trade", Goldman has just announced that it was "Stopped out of long EUR/$." Something tells us the slow money will not be happy to read this when they roll into the office between 10 am and 1 pm tomorrow.

Ironically, French minister Baroin says that the G-20 will release a statement in response to sovereign debt risk (after dinner of course). Isn't it nice when we all get along? Well the response by the markets has been absolutely lackluster so far with after-hours gains being held but not accelerating.

UPDATED with full text of statement

Via Bloomberg:

*G-20 WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN FINANCIAL STABILITY, GROWTH: BAROIN

*G-20 COMMITTED TO 'STRONG AND COORDINATED' RESPONSE

*G-20 SEEKS BALANCE BETWEEN GROWTH, BUDGET BALANCING: BAROIN

*G-20 SEES 'HEIGHTENED DOWNSIDE RISKS FROM SOVEREIGN STRESSES'

*G-20 SEES 'FINANCIAL SYSTEM FRAGILITY'

*G-20 SAYS EURO AREA WILL IMPLEMENT EFSF STEPS BY NEXT G-20

Earlier today some blog pulled up some factual data that suggested that Morgan Stanley had $39 billion in total exposure against French banks at the end of 2010, up $30 billion from the year prior, and enough to wipe out its entire market cap and then some should French banks be pulled under. Sure enough, the stock tanked even though as CNBC pointed out "there was absolutely no news." Since then, first Credit Suisse defended Morgan Stanley for its "European exposure" (we wonder how long before Morgan Stanley returns the favor and has to defend Credit Suisse for its US exposure: judging by Credit Suisse's maximum outlier 3M USD Libor rate, not too long). And now it is bank #2's turn, in this case Alliance Bernstein, whose conclusion is that "we estimate that total risk to France and its banks is less than $2 billion net of collateral and hedges." Ah yes, collateral and hedges, which, lest we recall incorrectly, did miracles when Lehman blew up and the very fabric of net hedging offset was threatened when the viability of the initiator in the "gross" CDS chain was put into question (thank you AIG). Naturally, if and when the 3 Big French banks go down, everyone will be perfectly normal and have no problem netting of hedges. Naturally. As for the coup de grace in the AB report, it is this piece of rhetorical brilliance: "Over the last six months, there have been 5,600+ articles published by the press on the subject of "French Banks" and "Credit Risk". We believe Morgan Stanley's risk management staff and its trading units are fully aware of the highly publicized risks emanating from Europe and warnings about the firm's potential exposure to a European Sovereign crisis." And there you have it: just because everyone is aware the bank is doomed, means the bank is ok. See, this is nothing like the logic that comedy entertainment icons such as Cramer and Dick Bove used to endorse Bear and Lehman days before both imploded. Then again, the downside for AB to actually tell the truth is substantially higher (as in contagion which takes down the entire banking system, AB included), than the upside from, well, prevaricating. As for abovementioned blog, we are just waiting for the third bank to come to Morgan Stanley's defense to know it was 100% correct.

A fascinating insight from Graham Giller of Giller Investments, who analyzes over 55 years of Treasury data to point to what is the crux of the problems of monetary policy since Greenspan took over the Fed. The Greenspan [and Bernanke] era monetary policy has altered the distribution of changes in interest rates in a way that exchanges a reduction in day-to-day 'normal' variability for a considerably higher (perhaps catastrophically higher as we are finding out this week) likelihood of extreme shocks.

Last Friday, Blooomberg reported the mysterious appearance of unreported debts by the island of Madeira. A week later, Moody's steps up to the plate and slaps a two-notch downgrade on the Autonomous Region due to (among other things) "grave irregularities" in the region's budget reporting. It is little wonder that investors are reducing exposure to government debt throughout Europe as these little anomalies keep popping up among the weaker oh-so-desperate-to-be-among-the-in-crowd sovereigns.

I was going to write something smart and pithy about this recent market decline, but then I realized that I’ve written about this in the past (more than once).  So here is an excerpt from the Little Book of Sideways Markets.  In addition, here is a copy of the presentation about sideways markets.  – Enjoy. 

The last several times Barton Biggs was on TV we laughed, we cried, we laughed much more, but most importantly we faded every word out of his confused mouth with as much leverage as the CME would allow us (at last check margin requirements on Biggs Ultra Shorts had not been hiked in a while). After all could anyone top tick the market better than the Notorious BIGGS who on August third and fourth predicted a 7-9% rally in the S&P, only to realize a month later that he may have 99 (redemption) problem but a Biggs AUM ain't one. Even more conclusive proof that old people should take their RDA of geritol and Gingko Biloba came two short weeks later, when the same former Morgan Stanley (what is it about that bank and producing some of the worst asset pickers known to man?) strategist told Bloomberg "I don't see all the bad news that you keep citing." It then took him only a month to see preciseley all the bad news that Bloomberg keeps citing. According to a just released comedic appearance by Bloomberg TV, the BIGgster is now only 20% net long, down from 85% 6 months ago. Said otherwise redemptions are rolling in. The is further confirmed by his statements:  "I wish I was minus 20,” and so do your LPs. "I wish I was zero. I don’t think any place is a place to invest." The slurring continues: "I want to see an important stimulus program in the United States, combined with major reform in social security, Medicare and our defense budget. If we did that, we could have a 20 percent rally." Likewise, as much as we wish we had a magic stick made of gold to beat idiots on the head with, we don't. Which lead Bart-o to the following statement: "Markets are telling policy makers that they’ve got to change and act or we’re going to go into a double-dip recession, and we’re going to go down another 20 percent." Yes ladies and gents, the age old 100% guaranteed trade of fading old faithful means it is now time to go dodecatuple down all in the market and mortgage that 4th unborn generation: the direction has been called. In the meantime, to watch an old white man not quite hiphopping, but certainly quoting "old negro spirituals", watch the rest.

It has been a while since we have referred to Bloomberg columnist Jon Weil. The reason is we were waiting for something juicy, something one can sink one's teeth in, using money from a "tax free" Swiss bank account to pay. The need to wait is now over, as Weil explains why preserving the Swiss bank's bonus pool is right up there in the list of national priorities for the Swiss country as preserving the illusion that only you and your banker know who is behind that "numbered" account, in "Swiss Must Save UBS’s Bonus Pool or Die Trying." Cutting to the chase: "this year’s UBS bonus pool isn’t doomed, per se. It’s “at risk.” And where there’s a risk there’s always a way. What the UBS bankers need is a plan to ensure that the people who bear this loss are people other than themselves. Luckily, I have prepared one. To save the UBS bonus pool, UBS’s leaders must persuade the people of Switzerland to eat the losses the company is blaming on Kweku Adoboli, and to do so with joy in their hearts. Impossible, you say? Consider the following talking points..."

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 22/09/11

The real occupations began long long ago, on Main Street USA and in Washington DC