Archive - Sep 2011

HUH?

1. between six and 30 years), net interest margins in the banking sector will likely be negatively affected.
2. The dramatic decline in the 30-year bond yield is going to aggravate already-massively actuarially underfunded positions in pension funds
3. The Fed says it is going to extend this Operation Twist program through to June 2012. This is a subtle hint to the markets that barring something really big occurring, there is no QE3 coming — not over the near term, in any event, and certainly not at the next meeting on November 1-2. So a stock market that has continuously been fuelled on hopes doesn't have any in this regard for at least the next month and a half.

A dearth of knife-catchers and bottom-callers suggests that our views on a broad swathe of investors being caught unhedged and offside by Bernanke's relative inaction was correct. By the look of today's huge selloff, investors will become increasingly aware of our recent post on the difference (risks) between owning stocks and bonds. The equity market remains a market in chaos as the following charts show. This week is the 3rd largest weekly downswing in the Dow ever (9/11 and Lehman the others).

I was always told that people might think you are stupid but if you speak, you run the risk of them knowing that you are stupid. Europe is going to bail out the 16 weakest banks? Banks that are in trouble because the PSI for Greece is worse than any stress they ran. Plans should be getting made for these banks to die but to possibly save the creditors and limit systematic risk. The focus should be on putting together plans for the big banks that pose real systematic risk. The market knows the stress tests were a farce, so why make a plan to save those that barely survived that low hurdle. Didn't they learn anything from dealing with Greece. Giving minimal help to the worst institutions is NOT going to solve anything and just shows how far behind they are in their thinking.

Update: We answer our own question: 30 minutes.

And right on cue, just like 2 weeks ago when the FT "broke" the news that China was about to bailout Europe (all over again), here they come again, reporting that the EU is "looking to [sic] swift recapitalzation of 16 banks." From the FT: :European officials look set to speed up plans to recapitalise the 16 banks that came close to failing last summer’s pan-EU stress tests as part of a co-ordinated effort to reassure the markets about the strength of the 27-nation bloc’s banking sector. A senior French official said the 16 banks regarded to be close to the threshold would now have to seek new funds immediately. Although there has been widespread speculation that French banks are seeking more capital, none is on the list. Other European officials said discussions were still under way. The move would affect mostly mid-tier banks. Seven are Spanish, two are from Germany, Greece and Portugal, and one each from Italy, Cyprus and Slovenia. The list includes Germany’s HSH Nordbank and Banco Popolare of Italy." And we are now taking bets on how long until this whole non-news, all rumor move is faded.

The (very appropriately named for today) Mike Krieger submits the latest piece, this one on a topic much discussed recently on Zero Hedge: the full blown escalation in financial warfare. To wit: "You have to hand it to these guys. The move was a stroke of central planning genius. Not only did they destroy people with major long Franc positions versus virtually any other currency (the Franc went down 25% versus the dollar in a one month period and 20% versus the euro) which was a way for the central planners to extract a pound of flesh from those betting against them, but it also was just as much if not more so directed at the gold market. Let me explain. Anyone with a large long franc position also likely has a long gold position as they are (rather were) essentially the same macro bet. Such a massive move in a currency such as the franc would have been so unexpected and such an outlier event that it would have wrecked severe havoc on many portfolios. The central planners knew this and they used it to their advantage to stop gold in its tracks as it was headed to $2,000/oz and beyond. This was no coincidence. It was financial warfare. You MUST know your enemy to survive and win the war because the central planners can win battles but not the war."

There was some good news for the bulls in the just released NYSE August margin debt update. Chief of these was that margin debt plunged from $306 billion to $272 billion in the past month, the lowest since the $270 billion in October 2010, which was to be expected considering the explosion in volatility of the last month. This means there are that fewer levered long positions that need liquidations/margin call collateral compliance. Another consequence of the market plunge in August was that Net Worth, or Margin Account credit balances, and Free Credit Cash accounts less Margin debt, the most direct proxy for levered beta pursuit, after hitting an all time low (negative net worth ) in May, has surged to nearly unchanged, or just ($4) billion, the most "unlevered" investors have been since June 2010. There is some bad news too however. And it is that at $272 billion in margin debt, there is still far, far more leverage in the market than at the market lows in March 2009, $99 billion or 56%  more to be specific, even as many of the economic and market indicators are back to those levels, and in some cases even before. In other words, people still refuse to believe that any market meltdown is for real. And once the margin calls start coming in, the convergence with the 666 on the SPX could come in a matter ot weeks if not days (and, courtesy of the ubiquity of HFT which can just slide the power switch to OFF nowadays, potentially hours).

While equity markets in the US have been hurt hard the last 24 hours, credit has been signaling notably more weakness than equities for a while. Today's action follows a similar path to Europe with equities underperforming credit and catching up to credit's view. Last night saw the credit indices close considerably cheap to their fair-value as investors grabbed index overlays as the most liquid hedges - today we some unwind of that as HY bonds are net sold and single-name CDS are decompressing considerably.

As this market has been feeling like a bubble waiting to find a pin as the wheels come off Fast and Furious, everything across the board is getting hammered from pillar to post and starting to scream out a major sell-off is coming to a market near you. When the 2007/08 global recession started, the DJIA led the declines with the DAX following suit after. But this time those across the pond seem to be the dying canary in the coal mine. Today, the DAX is down 4.64% on the day and 32% from the highs of the year. On a sign of weakness out of China through the 2mos low on their PMI, the Hang Seng closed down 4.85% on the day and is about to have its largest single weekly loss since 2009 while being down 28.5% for the year. The DJIA is also getting crushed as it is now down 16.4% from the 2011 peak while also being on the verge of a single largest weekly point drop from an open to close basis. What is ironic about all this is the DJIA, SPX, FTSE, and DAX are on the verge of making yearly lows and they all look vulnerable beyond belief. Basically the markets are starting to completely un-hinge and we suspect the wheels are coming off shortly

The Fed is trying to lower long-term interest rates… at a time when Treasuries are trading at all time highs. This is akin to buying Tech stocks in late 2000 or buying Housing stocks in late 2007. The US debt market is officially in a bubble… and the Fed wants to spend $400 billion trying to make it bigger. With leverage of over 50-to-1 the Fed is finished.

Flashy Crashy. Is History repeating itself, or is this time different?

Globe and Mail: "Canadian Banks Are Fine"

Stacy Herbert and Max Keiser have absolutely scooped the FT on the French bank run story with thier interactive interview of me and the use of new media. Absolutley!

Methinks the smaller media and blogs should be taken moe seriously as a platform by the mainstream media. Seriously! ZH and BBB are perfect examples.

Credit markets opened extremely weak last night in Europe, underperforming equities, and continued to slide lower for most of the day. The interesting divergence that appeared was equities underperforming credit all day long which provided some modest bid to credit as we closed and reflects what we have been discussing recently - that equities had yet to catch up to credit's perspective of the world. All-in-all things feel very weak out there with sovereigns cracking their all-time wides and even IG credit in Europe as wide as it was at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008/9. Equities remain well above levels appropriate to the credit market's perspective and downside risk remains the bigger threat in a vicious circle of capital reduction, counterparty risk management, and illiquidity.