Archive - Sep 2011

Europe’s fiscal and debt crises have dominated the financial news for months, and with good reason: the fate of the European Union and its common currency, the euro, hang in the balance. As the world’s largest trading bloc, Europe holds sway over the global economy: if it sinks into recession or devolves, it will drag the rest of the world with it. As investors, we are not just observers, we are participants in the global economy, and what transpires in Europe will present risks and opportunities for investors around the world. The issue boils down to this: is the European Union and the euro salvageable, or is it doomed for structural reasons? The flaws are now painfully apparent, but not necessarily well-understood. The fear gripping Status Quo analysts and leaders is so strong that even discussing the euro’s demise is taboo, as if even acknowledging the possibility might spark a global loss of faith. As a result, few analysts are willing to acknowledge the fatal weaknesses built into the European Union and its single currency, the euro. In the first part of this series, we’ll examine the structural flaws built into the euro, and in the second part, we’ll consider the investment consequences of its demise.

The contagion is getting every closer to the core, with risk in Italy (+6) and Spain (+11) getting ever closer to Austria (+5), Germany (+1) and the UK (+0.5). Also, some rumbling out of ironclad Scandinavia with Finland +7 to 81.75 bps.

• The FOMC rate-decision remains the main focus today as market participants anticipate the Fed to take further easing steps
• According to BoE’s September minutes, the MPC voted 9-0 and 8-1 to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and its asset-purchase target unchanged at GBP 200bln respectively. Most MPC members thought it increasingly likely that more QE would be warranted at some point
• CAD received support across the board following higher than expected CPI data from Canada
• Shares in BNP Paribas came under pressure on the back of market talk of a credit rating downgrade by one of the major rating agencies as early as today

First it was US money markets; then it was various European industrial concerns (which somehow double down as banks); then it was China; now the bank runs shift to insurance institutions when, as Bloomberg reports, Lloyd's of London has decided to pull peripheral Euro bank deposits. What next: complete collapse of European interbank market as bank runs become a daily thing at both the retail and institutional level? Well, we already anticipated that. But it is something totally different to see it happen in practice.

• China Faces ‘Hot-Money’ Surge on Financial Market Turmoil (Bloomberg)
• China Lending Curbs Help Propel Commercial Paper Yields to Record (Bloomberg)
• Italy plans reforms to rebuild growth (FT)
• US accused of unfair antitrust tactic (FT)
• Trichet urges EU banks to strengthen balance sheets (Reuters)
• Brazil seeks to help Europe via IMF (Reuters)
• Labour and Tories battle over IMF report (FT)
• Greek reforms undermined by stereotypes: minister (Reuters)

Today's existing home sales data, which will simply confirm that there is no hope for the housing market, will be completely ignored as everyone focuses on what gizmo Bernanke pulls out today from his magic bag of tricks.

Our thesis that global coordinated monetary stimulus is returning is playing out, first slowly, then very rapidly, with the Fed expected to announce at least Op Twist and an IOER cut at 2:15pm today, following a currency peg by the SNB, more printing promises by the BOJ, and the ECB now assumed to return to cutting rates shortly even as it purchases sovereign bonds in the open market. Sure enough, the latest entrant in the global resumption of printing is the BOE, which in minutes presented earlier, makes it clear it won't lag behind the Fed. From Goldman: "BOTTOM LINE: (i) The September MPC minutes revealed an unchanged vote (8-1 on asset purchases; 9-0 on rates). More significantly, however, for "most members" the decision was "finely balanced" and the committee was unusually forthright in signalling the likelihood of QE2. October now looks like the most likely date for a commencement of QE2. (ii) In other important news today, the ONS announced that public borrowing has been revised down by £6bn (0.4% of GDP) in 2010/11 and by £5bn (0.3% of GDP) so far in 2011/12. This potentially opens the door to a more gradual pace of fiscal tightening, with increased capital expenditure (the so-called "Plan A+")." And with that global relative FX devaluation continues, very much as expected, as does absolute devaluation of all currencies against gold, also very much as expected.

The French bank trio is once again on the ropes, with BNP leading the decliners at -5%, following the latest weekly Fed swap line release update from the ECB according to which one bank had subscribed for $500 million of dollars at emergency funding, confirming that anything coming out of the Libor market (where the average rate increased once again from 0.355% to 0.356% for the n^th day in a row) is pretty much irrelevant as no real dollar access is available at rates below the ECB's penalty rate which this week was 1.07%. The good news: this is not as bad as last week's two banks which needed $575 million. The bad news: we have reverted to the regime from a month ago when a bank, most likely the same bank, was forced to borrow from the ECB, and hence, from the Fed. Said otherwise, there has been no improvement in interbank liquidity conditions since August 17. Expect more weakness out of French banks especially if China steps up the war of rhetoric and announces that more (of its own massively levered) banks have cut liquidity connections with France.

Tonight's feel-good story of our time is a desperate stroll through the reality of the US housing market for millions of individuals (as opposed to the hope-driven must-say-something-positive spin the home-builder CEOs have been spewing recently). Notices-of-default jumped 33% in August, a nine-month high and largest month-over-month increase since August 2007 and it is becoming increasingly acceptable to walk away from contractual agreements as strategic default becomes the New American Dream.

Jobs? They don't need no stinkin' jobs ...

We are sick and tired of speculating what Benny and the Inkjets will decide tomorrow. The truth is nobody knows, probably not even Benny (unlike that other guy who got a haircut at the Marriner Eccles building today and who speaks in tongues). So here is a quick and dirty cheat sheet from SocGen giving the probability to each of the six possible options that the FOMC can pick out of Bernanke's magic hat. With over four hours from open until the "Rien ne Vas Plus" is called, compulsive gamblers should be able to put some good money down on the trifecta.

Tune into CNBC or click onto any of the dozens of mainstream financial news sites, and you’ll find an endless array of opinions on the latest wiggle in equity, bond and commodities markets. As often as not, you'll find those opinions nestled side by side with authoritative analysis on the outlook for the economy, complete with the author’s carefully studied judgment on the best way forward. Lost in all the noise, however, is any recognition that the US monetary system – and by extension, that of much of the developed world – may very well be on the verge of collapse. Falling back on metaphor, while the world’s many financial experts and economists sit around arguing about the direction of the ship of state, most are missing the point that the ship has already hit an iceberg and is taking on water fast. Yet if you were to raise your hand to ask 99% of the financial intelligentsia whether we might be on the verge of a failure of the dollar-based world monetary system, the response would be thinly veiled derision. Because, as we all know, such a thing is unimaginable!

Think again.

Following up his earlier note laying out expectations (translated as: "you better or else") for the outcome of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius produces another 'concerning' research note tonight providing just enough evidence for  a growing downside risk to the firm's 2% GDP growth estimate for 2012. We assume the failure of the market to hold onto dramatic losses (easier to justify more easing) or dramatic gains (can't disappoint a Pavlovian public waiting for the FOMC bell to ring) in the last few days prompted the 'nudge' from the policy-makers-elect. It appears weak stocks, a strengthening dollar, and the European crisis were not what the doctor ordered.

The media lamented the ugly housing-starts number. But for the market to heal, it should be near zero. In Japan, land prices are still declining 20 years after the bubble burst, and even the Yakuza are complaining.