Archive - Sep 2011

As we have been pointing out since the beginning of the week, the one defining feature of the past 5 days has been a relentless short covering rally. And while the mechanics were obvious, one thing was missing: the reason. Well, courtesy of David Rosenberg's latest, we may now know what it is. Bottom line: for all who think that Bernanke is about to serve just Operation Twist next week... you ain't seen nothing yet. "The consensus view that the Fed is going to stop at 'Operation Twist' may be in for a surprise. It may end up doing much, much more." Rosie continues: "Look, we are talking about the same man who, on October 2, 2003, delivered a speech titled Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Some Empirical Results. I kid you not. This is someone who clearly sees the stock market as a transmission mechanism from Fed policy to the rest of the economy. In other words, if Bernanke wants to juice the stock market, then he must do something to surprise the market. 'Operation Twist' is already baked in, which means he has to do that and a lot more to generate the positive surprise he clearly desires (this is exactly what he did on August 9th with the mid-2013 on- hold commitment). It seems that Bernanke, if he wants the market to rally, is going to have to come out with a surprise next Wednesday." In other words, stocks are now pricing in not just OT 2, and a reduction in the IOER, but also an LSAP of a few hundred billion. There is, however, naturally a flipside, to Bernanke's priced in announcement: "If he doesn't, then expect a big selloff." In everything, mind you, stocks, bonds, and certainly precious metals. And, of course, vice versa.

Two years after being laughed out by a bunch of Chinese students, Tim Geithner realized that his hypocrisy may pass muster in the Beltway, but the crowd is tougher across the Atlantic. As Reuters reports, the much anticipated meeting between Geithner and the euro FinMins in Wroclaw, Poland, lasted all of thirty minutes and if nothing else managed to unite the Europeans... in their ridicule and derision of the man that has become a global muppet caricature. The litany of quotes needs no explanation: "I found it peculiar that even though the Americans have significantly worse fundamental data than the euro zone that they tell us what we should do and when we make a suggestion ... that they say no straight away," Maria Fekter, [Austria's Finance Minister] told reporters afterwards, recalling a difference of opinion between Geithner and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on how to reinvigorate the euro zone and tax financial deals." And the kicker came from Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, who responded 'tartly' that "We can always discuss with our American colleagues. I'd like to hear how the United States will reduce its deficits ... and its debts." Alas, as Tim has found the hard way, being one of the biggest offendors when it comes to collapsed economies does take away from his credibility. So if we may suggest, Timmy should i) focus on fixing the US economy, and since he has repeatedly failed at that ii) to immediately resign.

It has been a while since JP Morgan has been sued for silver manipulation. Well, that changed on September 12, after JPM was served with its most recent lawsuit alleging silver manipulation, which we have no doubt will promptly move from JPM's Inbox straight to the trash can. Since this is a class action, virtually everyone who has ever traded silver and lost on the trade appears to be on the list of plaintiffs (we jest, although the list of impaired parties a through x is rather, well, dillutive of the purpose). It is unfortunate that the John Doe defendants are not named as the general media will merely see this as just another lawsuit which serves simply to remind us that the CFTC still has to investigate any of the allegations against JPM and HSBC for silver manipulation. And while a lot of the content in the filing is regurgitated filler, it does provide some suggested details (with price/volume - probably a first in a legal filing) on JPM's specific manipulation techniques, which makes for some engaging reading. There is substantially more, which at time reads like a diary of a conspiracy nutjob, and unfortunately that is how the conflicted legal system will see it. Because after all it is the CFTC's dute to monitor its member firms, and as long as the regulator is one of the alleged manipulators, nothing will change. That said, we certainly wish the plaintiffs lots of luck to at least get their case heard. That said, and going beyond the purvey of this lawsuit, we ask ourselves: why all the endless sound and fury over this purported ongoing price manipulation. Surely, the plaintiffs are smart enough to realize that every market intervention (such as the alleged JPM silver manipulation) always ends with price discovery in the end, i.e., silver, gold, spam, what have you, reaching its fair value. As such, should the litigants not be thanking JPM for allowing them to buy silver at lower than fair value prices? We wonder...

Austria will soon meet the limelight of international attention again. On Thursday the ruling coalition tried to set a date for the necessary vote on change of Austria's constitution that would allow the Eurozone to proceed on the ill-fated way of Eurobond issuance. Due to the opposition from the Green Party and the two xenophobic parties FPÖ and BZÖ the vote did not reach the obligator 2/3 majority in the upper house. The Green party had already issued a warning to the bank-controlled coalition in June, threatening to boycott a pro-Eurobond vote as long as Austria does not ensure that money lent to the PIIGS will be repaid absent the factor of pure hope. The Greens got unexpected support from conservative hardliner and finance minister Maria Fekter. on Friday In an interview with Austrian press agency APA she said Austria will reject a top-up of the €780 billion European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). She also addressed US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and advised him to put his own house in order before handing out fiscal advice to the Eurozone. Austria's coalition is getting shattered day after day by new scandals alleging corruption involving a string of partly state-owned companies like Telekom Austria, public railways, the purchase of 12 Eurofighter jets (only 2 are operable during daylight hours), alleged kickbacks in the privatization of the country's real estate holdings. Scandals have so far centered on the conservative ÖVP and their former xenophobic coalition partners. But since Thursday allegations about current social democrat chancellor Werner Faymann concerning advertising of public companies in preferred media begin to make bigger and bigger headlines.

Right now, dumpster diving is cute and fun and an interesting way to save money, but in the future there will be millions of Americans digging around in trash cans if we don't get this economy turned around.

EFSF may have been the best invention ever.  Although it has done very little so far, the potential for it do a lot has kept the markets upbeat time and again.  The latest is the announcement out of Belgium that the EFSF will make up the shortfall of investors agreeing to the voluntary rollover.  I can't even begin to understand what that means.  If the EFSF doesn't hold bonds, how is it going to vote to exchange them?  If they don't own bonds, where are they going to get them? ... It's been a long week of finding White Knight buyers of European debt.  Some of the rumors may turn out to be true, but reacting to a headline like this is just another sign of how broken this market has become.  Nerves are frayed and people are instantly reacting to any move on the chance that someone knows something. In the meantime, I did pull up the Wikipedia description of the Kubler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief.  Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.  I think Greece is in Acceptance, Portugal is in Depression, and Italy, Spain, and Ireland are deep into the Bargaining phase.  Personally, I'm mired in the Anger phase.

Just out from Bloomberg:

• Jeffrey Gundlach Found Liable for Breach of Fiduciary Duty
• TCW wins trade secret claim against Gundlach
• TCW wins no punitive damages against Jeffrey Gundlach

Well, that's over and done with. At least a jury did not find him to be a worse bond investor than Bill Gross...

In the last few minutes of the European week, major financials have been crushed. It appears that someone (or perhaps a lot of 'someones') really do not want to be long into the weekend. Credit Agricole is -11% on the day, having fallen 12.3% in the last hour!! Senior financial spreads also reversed all their gains and closed wider on the day.

The real Troica in action.

One short month ago, when the Jefferson County, AL commissioners sat down to vote on whether or not to file for Chapter 9, they decided to delay the vote by a month. Until today. Follow along as the final vote takes place, only this time the expectation is that the commissioners will agree to the proposed reorganization as JPM and other creditors have agreed to substantial concessions of $750 million of the total $1.1 billion loan. Naturally, if this settlement is rejected, the county will declare bankruptcy. Incidentally, what Jefferson County has shown the world is that a market test on real manageable LTV on muni debt is about 70% lower than currently marked. To Meredith Whitney's Chagrin, however, most municipalities will use up all their cash first before acknowledging reality and pushing for comparable hard line negotiating tactics with creditors.

While little has really been said or done this week with regard to solving any of the structural issues facing Europe, macro data globally has hardly been encouraging, and micro (earnings) have not aggressively beaten earnings, the equity and credit markets have ripped higher. While many have talked of short squeezes, which obviously are at the heart of every trend turn (whether micro or macro), we thought it useful to get some context on this move to judge when/if it will ever stop.

Update: more bad news as Reuters reports that participation in the Greek private sector debt initiative at just under 75% according to financial sources. This is a miserable miss to the required 90% and means that the debt rollover initiative is basically dead in its tracks, as 25% of the bondholders will become holdouts and seek to derail the entire Bailout #2 process in return for massive "nuisance value" payments. Problem is nobody will pay said demanded payment.

Those seeking a reason for the sudden drop on no news, can attribute the weakness in the EURUSD and its 1.000 correlated derivative, the US policy vehicle known as the stock market, to the following news making the rounds brought to us by RanSquawk, namely that Germany is likely to delay ESM legalisation beyond year end of 2011. Specifically, "facing a storm of protest from within its own ranks, Germany's ruling coalition government has delayed discussing the ESM in cabinet meaning that legislation on the Eurozones permanent rescue fund, will not likely be in place by end of this year as hoped." As a reminder, Stark quit due to disagreement over the SMP's usage. This most recent update means the SMP program, not only will not end as was expected originally in September, but will be forced to monetize Italian debt for at least three more months, and likely much longer, until the EFSF is activated, some time in Q1 2012. This also means that the ECB's SMP program, currently pregnant with €140 billion of PIIGS bonds, will expand to double its size by the end of the year, further pushing the zEURo lower as Europe continues with its explicit debt monetization on the books, and not as was envisioned before, using an SPV in the form of the EFSF.

The UMichigan read for consumer confidence came slightly better than uber-depressionary, printing at 57.8, on expectations of 57, and better than the apocalyptic 55.7 from August. To put the number in perspective, it is the second lowest since February 2009. To algorithms all that will matter, however, is that it is rising. What they will completely ignore is that consumer expectations, or the outlook for the future, just dropped yet again, from 47.4 to 47, the lowest print since May of 1980! More troubling to the Fed is the read on inflation expectations, which after declining for months, rose in both 1 year (from 3.5% to 3.7%) and 5 year (from 2.9% to 3.0%) expectations.

The biggest scandal to rock the White House since Bill Clinton needed a refresher on the definition of the word "the" has gone fully mainstream after Jon Stewart dedicated his segment last night to "That Custom Tailored Obama Scandal You Ordered." His summary: "Fox News call your doctor, because the erection you currently have is going to last longer than 4 hours." Spot on. One thing is missing, however: someone should advise Jon that the missing link, Goldman Sachs, is also, and quite naturally, involved.