Archive - Sep 2011

• The SNB set the minimum exchange rate target for EUR/CHF at 1.2000, and said that it will take further measures if risks to the economic outlook or that of deflation emerge
• According to an article in the FT, global bank regulators are preparing to ease new rules that would require banks to hold more liquid assets to withstand a funding crunch in a crisis
• Early market talk of a planned merger between Societe Generale and BNP Paribas provided support to equities
• The Italian/German and Spanish/German 10-year government bond yield spreads narrowed partly on the back of market talk that the ECB is buying the Italian and Spanish government bonds

Holy Red Screen, Batman! If you haven’t seen the news, the Swiss National Bank has just announced that it is putting a ceiling on the franc’s appreciation against the euro… effectively abandoning its economic sovereignty and putting its future in the hands of woefully corrupt and incompetent bureaucrats. On the news, the franc fell off a cliff, dropping almost 10% INSTANTLY. Gold priced in Swiss francs jumped from 1497 to 1620 per troy ounce, all in about 45 seconds. Precious metals are now all alone as the only forms of sound money that are truly safe havens.  Since then gold has soared roughly 20%, and as of this morning, the SNB has imposed capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency. This is just the beginning. The Swiss government has basically told the world that they will print as much money as it takes, and buy up as much crap sovereign debt as they can, to competitively devalue the currency. This essentially puts Switzerland in the same sinking boat as Italy, Greece, and Portugal… with one key difference: Switzerland has 0% interest rates. In other words, you can now borrow in francs at 0% and buy government-backed euro garbage yielding 5%, 10%, 30%…. with absolutely no downside currency risk.

Currency markets have seen massive volatility this morning after the Swiss National Bank decision to fix the Swiss franc to the euro. Just prior to the announcement, spot gold for immediate delivery had risen to a new record nominal high of $1,921.15/oz in early morning trading in Europe. Then just before 0900 hours GMT came the news that the Swiss National Bank has decided to fix the country's exchange rate at 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. The SNB indicated it would buy an unlimited amount of euros regardless of the risk to maintain that value. In a matter of minutes, gold fell 3% from the high of $1,921.15 to an inter day low of $1,862.72. It then recovered as quickly and surged back to over $1,912/oz. Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,891.00, EUR 1,330.75, GBP 1,172.86 per ounce. Gold fixed lower in all currencies (USD 1,896.50, EUR 1,341.13, GBP 1,174.67 per ounce). The SNB announced the currency fix because of what it called "the current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc." It said it will "no longer tolerate" an exchange rate below the minimum rate of 1.20 francs, which it said is still high.

Currency War coming up?

All you need to read.

Update: gold is now at a fresh all time nominal high, with a price equivalent to that fateful year in which the world's biggest and perfectly legitimate criminal cartel was founded on Jekyll Island some years ago.

When it comes to gold, one can now officially skip the foreplay (because apparently there is such a thing s a 2G spot). Unlike two weeks ago when the latest Shanghai margin hike caused gold to temporarily lose its equilibrium and flop, however briefly, somewhere in the lower 1700s, as of tonight it has valiantly processed, and completely ignored, news from the Shanghai Gold Exchange that trading margins for the gold forward contract, Au(T+D), will be raised, temporarily starting Sept 9 to 13 percent from 12 percent, while the daily circuit breaker would be lifted to 10 percent from 9 percent, and has proceeded to rise to within nickels of the all time high, with spot trading over $1910 at last check. Since Europe is about to open shortly, and since the free fall in risk will resume now that virtually every rhetorical gimmick has been used and abused ad inf, it appears that absent the CME doing away with margin altogether, we will see $2G spot within hours.

There are those who may be surprised to find that China is not completely insulated from the latest fun in Europe, America, and all those other places where the ponzi is imploding. To those same people we suggest a casual reading of the following two articles by Bloomberg and MNI - frankly we are too lazy to summarize. As for the market: it already knows whats up. Below is the nth consecutive drift up in most Asian CDS as once again credit predicts and idiots momos react, and after losing a shitload of money, confirm.

Following the lovely goose egg of a jobs report last week, markets started the week with an Asian Invasion rout led by the Hang Sang down 3%, and the Kospi shedding 4.4%. The second act of this sonata was Europe getting hammered led by a German Blitzkrieg 1-2 punch with the DAX losing 5.28% but more uniquely, the German 10-yr setting a new record below 2%. With all these trick-or-treats haunting the markets one has to ask, ‘Is the Ticking Time Bomb Going Off and the Inception-Style Dream Collapsing?’ We think so and we will begin by looking to a place that would seem most odd…the institutional players.

Any time a major bank releases a report saying a given course of action is too costly, too prohibitive, too blonde, or simply too impossible, it is nearly guaranteed that that is precisely the course of action about to be undertaken. Which is why all non-euro skeptics are advised to shield their eyes and look away from the just released report by UBS (of surging 3 Month USD Libor rate fame) titled "Euro Break Up - The Consequences." UBS conveniently sets up the straw man as follows: "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change." So far so good. Yet where it gets scary is when UBS quantifies the actual opportunity cost to one or more countries leaving the Euro. Notably Germany. "Were a stronger country such as Germany to leave the Euro, the consequences would include corporate default, recapitalisation of the banking system and collapse of international trade. If Germany were to leave, we believe the cost to be around EUR6,000 to EUR8,000 for every German adult and child in the first year, and a range of EUR3,500 to EUR4,500 per person per year thereafter. That is the equivalent of 20% to 25% of GDP in the first year. " It also would mean the end of UBS, but we digress. Where it gets even more scary is when UBS, like many other banks to come, succumbs to the Mutual Assured Destruction trope made so popular by ole' Hank Paulson : "The economic cost is, in many ways, the least of the concerns investors should have about a break-up. Fragmentation of the Euro would incur political costs. Europe’s “soft power” influence internationally would cease (as the concept of “Europe” as an integrated polity becomes meaningless). It is also worth observing that almost no modern fiat currency monetary unions have broken up without some form of authoritarian or military government, or civil war." So you see: save the euro for the children, so we can avoid all out war (and UBS can continue to exist). The scariest thing, however, by far, is that for this report to have been issued, it means that Germany is now actively considering dumping the euro.

As if we didn't have enough to worry about with sovereign shenanigans in Europe, which bridges to build in the US, and a slowing China, Israel's top-brass now fears a winter of radical Islam, an increase in the chance of a multi-front war, and notes Hamas using a new advanced rocket (perhaps this will be the bazooka that Trichet borrows?).

Having twiddled thumbs all day, equity futures just reopened with a modest drop - extending losses from the overnight session - and US credit markets are reflecting European weakness as financials lead us wider.

While NATO members, led by France, piously proclaimed at the onset of their military offensive in Libya that their concerns were solely humanitarian, a covert tussle to gain a commanding lead in developing the country’s energy riches in light of Colonel Gaddafi’s departure is well underway. The Libyan economy depends primarily upon revenues from the oil sector, which contribute about 95 percent of export earnings, 25 percent of GDP, and 80 percent of government revenue. Prior to the outbreak of conflict, Libya was exporting about 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day from production estimated at roughly 1.79 million barrels per day, of which approximately 280,000 barrels per day were indigenously consumed. But analysts believe that with reconstruction Libya could soon be exporting 1.6 million barrels per day of high-quality, light crude. But current production is the proverbial mere drop in the bucket. Libya has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa with 42 billion barrels of oil and over 1.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Causing oil company executives from Houston to Beijing to drool on their Gucci loafers, only 25 percent of Libya’s territory has been explored to date for hydrocarbons.

Since it will be a slow news day until futures open in a few hours, readers who are locked indoors can waste it by listening to the oddly named Palmetto Freedom Forum which is basically another GOP presidential debate where candidates will take to the stage one at a time to substantively answer questions on their views from three panelists: South Carlolina Sen. Jim DeMint, Rep. Steve King of Iowa, and Dr. Robert George, founder of the American Principles Project and McCormick Professor of Jurisprudence at Princeton University. The participating candidates will include the major GOP contenders: Rep. Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney. As Townhall observes: "Sen. DeMint, et al's questioning is sure to challenge the participants on the hard-hitting issues, and should serve as a great preview to this Wednesday's GOP debate." That said, Rick Perry, and his Bank of America supporters, will be materially missing so no hard-hitting answers from the Texan.