Archive - 2011

The imposition of a police state hands the REAL terrorists a big victory ...

As we said last week, when the S&P, in desperate hope that the Euro summit would achieve something, anything, to avoid an eventual downgrade of Europe, called Europe's bluff... and Europe was found to hold 2-7 offsuit. Now, when it has no choice but to downgrade the EuropeAAAn-club, S&P is practically apologizing for its action, and is today saying that since nothing happened to change its opinion, it will have no choice but to proceed with pervasive downgrades, only this time not only sovereigns (which it is expected to conclude on shortly) but also corporates of all shapes and sizes. Unless of course it doesn't, at which point the rating agency can just tell the last guy to turn the lights out on their way out.

UPDATE: European credit closed abruptly negative (especially Financials) - even as stocks managed a small gaiun into the close

It has been an extremely volatile start to the US day session as QE3 rumors and Oil geo-political concerns set the markets on fire only for denials and Merkel's straight talk to dash those hopes. EURUSD is 180 pips off its earlier highs having broken through 1.31 to 11 month lows. European credits are rolling over rapidly (especially financials and XOver) as are US credit and equity markets with financials, tech, and consumer discretionary now in the red on the day. HYG is selling off tick for tick with the broad equity and credit markets which is what we were concerned about yesterday with its impact on secondary bonds if we see outflows. Commodities have continued their week of chaos with Oil having retraced about 50% of its spike but Gold and Silver now significantly below the pre-QE3-rumor levels (down over 3% on the week).

...but if Fitch changing the outlook from positive to stable on Bulgaria, Czech, Lativa, and Lithuania can push us down 0.5% then if you are long, you need to be putting on some sort of a hedge. I'm not a big fan of puts, and maybe this isn't the news that caused the market to go down, but if it is, then that is scary.

You don't believe me? Ask Corzine...

Having surged on earlier speculation that the Fed may hint at QE3, and follow up reports from RanSquawk that the Straits of Hormuz are either closed or in process of doing so, it is now time for the roundtrip, after Reuters just reported that hopes of EFSF-like expansion for the ESM have been dashed.

• MERKEL REJECTS RAISING UPPER LIMITS OF FUNDING FOR ESM BAILOUT MECHANISM -SOURCES IN RULING COALITION - RTRS

Summary: Risk On -> Risk Off

Update: the three MF Global stoog... pardon, former executives, are now testifying

Even though he has had several days in which to "review his notes", the follow up testimony by former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine to the Senate Agriculture Committee starting momentarily will be replete with "I don't recalls" and "to the best of my knowledge" and will be largely devoid of all content, suffice to say it was not his intention to break the main law of broker dealers- no commingling. It will be even worse because today he will be joined by MF global's CFO and COO as well, all of whom will be completely clueless once again, and needless to say, shocked, SHOCKED, that they stole billions from their clients. Watch the full webcast below.

And update from Bloomberg:

HORMUZ STRAIT IS NOT SHUT: IRAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN - BLOOMBERG

Earlier:

Iran has closed the Straits of Hormuz for military training as was expected yesterday, according to RanSquawk. Oil, and all other commodities, are outtahere.

Just in case the general population was getting accustomed to the image of a demonic creature from the depths of hell every time the name "Chairsatan" was invoked in impolite conversation, here comes Jon Hilsenrath via the WSJ's blog, to attempt to humanize the man who together with 9 other academics who have no real world experience, runs the world out of a private (and locked) conference room in the Marriner Eccles building. So lest someone expect pentagrams to accompany today's FOMC statement, coupled with Bernanke breathing fire and smelling of sulfur at the next Fed conference, here is WSJ's Jon to put a humanly halo around the printer operator himself...

Perhaps it is time for the stick-jockeys who are controlling US drones to put down the twinky and focus a little more. Reuters is reporting that yet another US drone has crashed, this time while it was vacationing in the Seychelles. The Seychelles Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) confirmed the incident and said that the plane was on a "routine patrol" and had crashed because of mechanical failure. On the bright side, this has to be good for GDP as Durable Goods orders (or maybe they should be repositioned as non-durable) will get a bump as General Atomics gets some new Predator orders.

It is always amsuing to listen to market narratives, however goal seeked they may be, when presented by market veterans such as Art Cashin, who in this case deconstructs the violent clash between reality and post-summit hype as represented by yesterday's amusing market action.

As expected banks couldn't agree to a haircut.  Now Greece, the EU, the IMF, and taxpayers, will pay out about about $11 billion of principal and interest before the end of the year.  I don't know who holds the bonds maturing this year, but some of that money is probably finding its way into banks that survive solely on the grace of central bank funding. Why would any bank agree to a haircut when they are getting unlimited virtually free funding on the one hand, and the Troika has shown zero willingness to stand its ground and force a default?

Its not just our European colleagues who are struggling under the weight of collateral value losses and de-hypothecation, the USD funding shortage is just as evident in Japan. As part of the globally coordinated central bank swap line extension, the Bank of Japan saw bids for their 84-day USD loans explode by 48 times to around $4.8bn. After jumping 25x the previous week, the short-dated loans (one-week term) demand drifted as demand for the 84-day loans (which would get them over the holiday/end-of-year funding debacles and a decent way into the first quarter refi-ganza of next year) was far preferred at the obviously preferential rate of 50bps over 3 month OIS (0.61%). It's also worth noting that the size and demand for Euro-based USD funding is still significantly higher and while cross-currency basis swaps for both JPY and EUR are leaking back towards extreme stress levels, the EUR-USD is getting worse faster than the JPY-USD level (as the differential has widened from 56bps to 78bps in the last week).

A core portion of the MBIA thesis has been validated. Furthermore, the settlement hit to earnings of $1.8 billion is precisely as we expected back in March when we stated, "As Morgan Stanley Unwinds Its Massive MBIA CDS Losing Position, Is A Billion+ Hit To Earnings Coming?" Expect the short covering in MBIA to spring into action today. And hilariously, MBI short interest rose into the end of November! To those who followed our suggestion back in September and bought MBIA, congratulations on the 50% gain. It is likely that the true "squeeze thesis" upside is only yet to be uncovered.