Archive - 2011
January 5th
RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 05/01/11
Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 01/05/2011 11:47 -0500RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 05/01/11
Humans Have Intentionally Modified Weather for Military Purposes and Climate Control for Decades
Submitted by George Washington on 01/05/2011 11:46 -0500Another reason to buy silver!
Is China Green Agriculture (CGA) The Next Chinese Fraud?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 11:40 -0500After Muddy Waters came out with research two months ago that singlehandedly destroyed recent Chinese NYSE IPO, RINO, we predicted that there would soon develop a cottage industry of micro investment firms who do diligence on various Chinese frauds (and there are many of them), establish a short base, and subsequently release a research report in the name. Today we get the latest such possible casualty: meet China Green Agriculture, a Xian, China firm founded in 2000, which "engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of humic acid based compound fertilizers in China... The company also engages in the development, production, and distribution of agricultural products, including fruits, vegetables, flowers, and colored seedlings." Sure enough the company IPOed on the NYSE in mid-2008, and if the just released research report by J Capital Research is correct, the firm is about to join such other disgraces as RINO in the NYSE IPO dunce corner. To wit: "In this report, we present compelling evidence that China Green Agriculture (NYSE:CGA) has significantly over-stated its true revenues and earnings. We estimate that CGA’s value is no more than $2.85 per share, as opposed to its current market price of $9."
Rosenberg Goes On Offensive, Mocks Birinyi, Tells Koolaid Guzzlers To "Put It In Their Pipe And Smoke It"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 11:15 -0500David Rosenberg, who has very patiently taken the peanut gallery's swipes at him for the past month during the latest bear market rally bout (of which Japan had roughly 25 as the broader secular one took its market about 75% lower over two decades), finally lashes out at all those who still fail to see that there is nothing organic about the US economic recovery, and the only reason the numbers are "better" is due to the $4+ trillion in fiscal and monetary stimuli: "What we have on our hands has been an economic revival and market bounce back premised on unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus. How the Fed and the federal government in the future manage to redress their pregnant balance sheets without creating a major disturbance for the overall economy is a legitimate question and, sorry, does not deserve a double-digit market multiple, in our view." That is about all that needs to be said on the matter of the economic recovery. But we will immediately grant that there is an organic economic boom if the Fed removes QE right now, and the economic data points over the next quarter continue trending higher. Somehow we don't think this will (ever) happen...
Robert Gibbs Stepping Down, To Become Outside Advisor To President On Re-Election Campaign
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 10:49 -0500The biggest spin master in the Obama administration, Press secretary Robert Gibbs, who obstinately had refused to answer Zero Hedge questions about the economic "recovery" in his daily tweetersessions , has joined pretty much everybody else in dumping the titanic that is the Obama administration. There is one thing we can be sure of, however, Tim Geithner, the only man who is officially on economic retainer (yet gets about 1% the use of Goldman's Jan Hatzius when it comes to monetary and fiscal policy) will be forever by Obama's side.
Services ISM Beats Expectations While Drop In Employment Index Confirms ADP Beat Was An Aberration
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 10:42 -0500Following the too good to be true ADP number, the December Services ISM number came at 57.1 on a 55.7 consensus and an improvement from November's 55- a multi-year high. Yet the usual casual glance behind the scenes confirms once again that disparate economic data series are in complete contradiction with each other: the employment index declined from 52.7 to 50.5, which makes absolutely no sense in light of the alleged surge on ADP service-related jobs. Even Goldman has nothing good to say: "The decline in the employment index, however, suggests that the
strong ADP employment number has considerable statistical distortion
and should therefore be interpreted with care." But such is life when one runs a ministry of truth with far too many controllable variables. Furthermore, the economic growth through inventory accumulation is continuing, as inventories increased from 51.5 to 52.5. And most importantly for EPS numbers, kiss those margins good bye: prices paid increased from 63.2 to 70.0.
This Mornings News Flow Is Essentially A "Didn't Reggie Tell Us This In Full Detail Up To Two Years Ago" Parade As Indebted Europe Continues To Rip At The Seams!
Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 01/05/2011 09:08 -0500Don't say I didn't tell 'ya so!
Two Takes On The ADP Number
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 09:02 -0500The following two takes on this morning's ADP number are from two opposites: Goldman, with its transition to a permabull, and Knight Capital, with its far more balanced outlook on the economy.
Food Riots Next? FAO Says Food Prices Surpass Record Highs Seen During 2007-2008 Bubble
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 08:56 -0500The last time food prices hit ridiculous levels, the immediate outcome was global food riots in places such as Haiti and Bangladesh. Which is why distributors of riot equipment in the world's poorest countries may be in for a bumper crop as the Food and Agriculture Organization has just announced that world food prices have just surpassed the previous record last seen in 2007-2008. But it's ok: according to the centrally planning Chairman it's all good, and the inflation is really just in our heads. After all, courtesy of the recent spike in mortgage rates, home prices now have about 10% to drop, meaning even less equity will be extracted from already substantially depressed food prices.
"Off With Our Heads!": Bil Gross On How "Future Generations Pay The Price For Their Parents’ Mindless Thrusting"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 08:28 -0500
- American politicians and citizens alike have no clear vision of the
costs of a seemingly perpetual trillion-dollar annual deficit. - Policy stimulus is focused on maintaining current consumption as
opposed to making the United States more competitive in the global
marketplace. - Dollar depreciation will sap the purchasing power of U.S. consumers,
as well as the global valuation of dollar denominated assets.
By Bill Gross
ADP December Payrolls Up 297,000 On Expectations Of 100,000
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 08:23 -0500
ADP, whose November better than expected data of 92,000 jobs diverged dramatically with the weaker than expected NFP report (which just happened to come at a time when political ammo was required to pass the Unemployment Insurance extension, and which we predicted would surge in December), has just come at 297,000, on expectations of 100,000. How this number is even remotely possible is beyond any reasonable attempt at reconciling NFP data with initial claims. Then again, this is the loudest telegraphing that the dollar should be far, far higher.
Frontrunning: January 5
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 08:09 -0500- Fed May Keep Easing at `Full Throttle' Until Jobless Rate Falls (Bloomberg)
- Goldman Employees Blocked From Facebook Get Tutorial (Bloomberg)
- U.S. Shopping Center Vacancies Rise as Unemployment Rate Climbs (Bloomberg)
- Oil falls below $89 on dollar strength (Reuters)
- China's 2010 GDP Likely to Grow 10%: PBOC Chief (China Daily)
- U.S. stresses need to reduce China trade imbalance (Reuters)
- The Smart Money Girds for a Drop in Stocks (Barrons)
- Rogoff Says Greece May Yet Face Default on Its Debts (Bloomberg)
- China to invest $106b in railways in 2011 (China Daily)
- U.S. Economy Overheating? We Should Be So Lucky (Bloomberg)
- Australian Central Bank to Weigh Floods in Next Rate Move (WSJ)
One Minute Macro Summary
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 07:32 -0500Lots of news to be digested from all around the world, most notably the news that news actually matters once again, as futures are depressed for the first time in well over a month.
Today's Economic Events
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2011 07:26 -0500After the MBA’s report on mortgage applications, we have some labor-market data and the ISM’s non-manufacturing survey…At 11 am the Fed will complete its purchase of just $1.5-$2.5 billion in 17-30 year treasury.






