Archive - Oct 10, 2012

After the kneejerk stop-run reaction to the FOMC's announcement of QEternity - that juiced stocks to the year's highs, there has been no follow-through at all among the cyclical or recovery-sensitive sectors. In fact, all the sectors that ran on QE3 hopes have retraced dramatically. With today's further slump in Energy and Materials (as earnings begin to cast doubt on the hope-rally), they are now down over 5% from the post-QE peak.

As if we needed further confirmation of the un-reality of Friday's BLS data, the JOLTS data just printed with the largest two-month drop in ten months (and the first two-months-in-a-row of falling job openings this year). Of course this is data for August and the unemployment rate was for September - which we are sure makes all the difference...

There should be three objectives for a well-functioning monetary system: i) internal balance, ii) allocative efficiency and iii) financial stability. The international financial and monetary system (IFMS) has functioned under a number of different regimes over the past 150 years and each has placed different weights on these three objectives. Overall, this recent Bank of England paper finds that today’s 'fiat' system has performed poorly against each of its three objectives, at least compared with the Bretton Woods System, with the key failure being the system’s inability to maintain financial stability and minimize the incidence of disruptive sudden changes in global capital flows. There is little consensus in the academic literature, or among policymakers, on what are the underlying problems in the global economy which allow excessive imbalances to build in today’s IMFS and/or which impede the IMFS from adjusting smoothly to counteract these imbalances. Critically though, while the fiat money system we are currently does indeed exhibit lower GDP growth volatility (by design), it has dramatically more incidents of banking and currency crises than under a Gold Standard.

A rare glimpse inside "probably the world's biggest" 'market-maker' GETCO as it provides estimates of over 20% of 'liquidity' to the daly trading volume on US stocks. Meet the people that stand ready to feed the machines (oh wait) that stand ready at all times (except when most needed) to bid or ask...

Whether it is US companies' reporting or Chinese data confirming, times are getting tougher for the world's engine of growth. So, like every well-balanced western nation, instead of turning to meditation and exercise, beer appears the chosen method of stress-relief for the Chinese. As Bloomberg Briefs notes, three of the top six brands of beer in the world are Chinese with the great nation consuming 50 billion liters per year - more than double the US 24 billion. Do not worry though, USA is still #1 at 74 liters per capita per year relative to China's 37 liters. It would seem the start of their recession is perfect timing for them to make a run at increasing that average yearly intake. Already this year, Chinese domestic beer production is up 2% YoY and imports are up 100% - perhaps the only 'rising' data point the nation has seen; and maybe the next great anti-growth indicator.

In the beginning there was much hope, especially among M&A ibanker advisors, that the creation of the world's largest aerospace and defense company would be not only a fee bonanza but a statement that even in Europe's ongoing economic depression one can cobble together megadeals. Then things got sour as little by little the realization that the deal may fall through started creeping in. Moments ago, all hope was lost as both parties pulled out of further merger talks. From Reuters: "- EADS and BAE Systems will not ask for an extension to their merger talks on Wednesday, sources close to the negotiations said, calling an end - for now - to a plan to create the world's largest defence and aerospace company. "We will not be filing for an extension. It's over," one of the sources said. The two companies had until 1600 GMT to ask for an extension to the talks, which have come up against fierce governmental opposition as France and Germany sought to maintain control while Britain wanted less state ownership."

And so another urban legend falls, this time of the retail "doorbuster" ploy known as "Black Friday", whose only goal is to get as many gullible US shoppers into retail stores with promises of massive discounts and unbeatable bargains. As it turns out the promises are completely hollow, in based on an analysis by the WSJ, those highly touted Black Friday deals aren't deals at all, and in fact the bulk of the "discounts" are smaller compared to comparable price cuts throughout the year. In fact, the only thing that is true about the day that launches Holiday shopping, is that it is a great demonstration of the herd effect in play, where people line up in droves just because other people line up in droves. In the meantime, everyone else has already managed to snag that much desired purchase long ago and at a lower price. Of course, if this key day that anchors the start of the profitable retail shopping season is relegated to the dustbin of urban legendry, then retailers' already negligible margins will be cut even further, leading to severe adverse economic consequences for a country whose economy is 70% based on consumption, and which is already on the edge as said consumer is largely tapped out and whose credit cards have been maxed out long ago.

• U.S. Military Is Sent to Jordan to Help With Crisis in Syria (NYT)
• IMF Weighing New Loans for Europe (WSJ)
• Romney Targets Obama Voters (WSJ)
• China’s Central Banker Won’t Attend IMF Meeting Amid Island Spat (Bloomberg)
• Japan Calls China PBOC Chief Skipping IMF Meeting ‘Regrettable’ (Bloomberg)
• German media bristles at hostile Greek reception for Merkel (Reuters)
• The End Might Be Near for Opel (Spiegel)
• IMF sounds alarm on Japanese banks (FT)
• Cash Tap Stays Dry for EU Banks (WSJ)
• Goldman in Push On Volcker Limits (WSJ)
• IMF Vinals: Further Policy Efforts Needed to Gain Lasting Stability (WSJ)
• King signals inflation not primary focus (FT)

The overnight session has been largely listless, with the market digesting a less than impressive start to earnings season by Alcoa, which reported declining cash flows, and various other negative earnings preannouncements out of major industrial companies. The IMF has not helped the somber mood with its analysis that by the end of 2013 European banks will need to dispose of up to $4.5 trillion in assets. Asian weakness (even the SHCOMP couldn't rally much on further easing rumors for the simple reason that the PBOC will simply not ease with QEternity out there and a food price hike over the horizon) has dominated the trading session so far. What little goods news there was came out ironically out of Italy and France, both of which reported better than expected August Industrial Production data. Italy IP rose 1.7% on expectations of a -0.5% drop, and up from -0.2% last, while the French Industrial Production posted a surprising surge, following weeks of poor data out of the country, with IP up 1.5% on expectations of a -0.3% print, and up from last month's 0.6%. However, even France warned not to read too much into a number driven by, well, cars and drinks.