Archive - Oct 15, 2012

Several years ago Jeff Macke had his brief run in with comedic immortality courtesy of the "Car People" Fast Money episode which promptly cost him his job, if generating countless hours of Wall Street laugh out loud humor in the process. Ever since then he has more or less fallen off the financial pundit horizon, which in retrospect is sad, because as he shows here, he still has a fascinating ability to cut through the BS. Because while earlier we explained why Citi's numbers were nothing short of garbage, with the headline spin being used just to fool algos and various other non-carbon based trading lifeforms, using run-on sentences and pretty charts, Macke does this far, far more efficiently, and with far more exuberance than even we thought possible: "There's a genius to it. These numbers mean NO-THING, because they can report whatever they want." The man's still got it, even if no car people were destroyed in the filming of this segment.

Divergence in thinking. 

Here's chart show my Q1 2012 numbers for Apple's share price as compared to Apple's actual performance.

Going forward, when traders yell "Timberrrrrr!" it just may mean the diametrical opposite of what said announcement has traditionally implied. At least according to the latest just released 7 year forecast of various asset class returns as per Jeremy Grantham's GMO. In it, the $100 billion asset manager sees Timber returning an annualized 6.5% over the next 7 years (as of September 2012), outperforming virtually every other asset class tracked by GMO, with Emerging Market stocks (supposedly Africa is envisioned here, as China's debt encumbrance is almost maxed out) second at 6.1%, and International Large stocks in third place. Those who hope to retire with their holdings of US Large Cap firms may want to reconsider, following a 0.0% return in 7 years, underperforming such simple things as cash which GMO sees as returning 0.1% (arguably this implies modest to quite modest deflation in the future). The worst of the worst? US and International bonds, with Inflation Linked bonds underperforming virtually everything with a -2.7% return.

UTuBe HiTLER: "I have full confidence in the Keynesian multipliers."

Let’s step away from the noise for a moment and look at the big picture. This isn’t about doom and gloom, or fear, but objective facts. Undoubtedly, the Western hierarchy dominated by the United States is in a completely unsustainable situation. Across the West, national governments have obligations they simply cannot meet—both to their citizens and their creditors. Once again, this is not the first time history has seen such conditions. In our own lifetimes, we’ve seen the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the tragi-comical hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, and the unraveling of Argentina’s millennial crisis. Plus we can study what happened when empires from the past collapsed. The conditions are nearly identical. Is our civilization so different that we are immune to the consequences?
However, one of the things that we see frequently in history is that this transition occurs gradually, then very rapidly.

In the four weeks since Bernanke unveiled QEtc. and its focus on the MBS market, mortgage REITs have slumped - losing more than half the year's gains amid heavy volume. The selling pressure is warranted as these vehicles tend to be owned by investors seeking high-yield dividend plays - and as such any risk to that stream means high-beta selling. With re-investment opportunities miserly - thanks to Bernanke's ZIRP and spread repression - dividend-paying ability remains questionable. The business model of these entities relies on high asset yields, low liability costs, and access to leverage and the three major hot buttons we look at below do not look like improving anytime soon in a QEtc. world.

Anyone wondering what the reason for today's dramatic gold price dump is, look no further than South Africa, where we learn that after nearly two months of endless strikes in the metals and mining complex, the country - the world's fifth largest producer of gold - is nowhere nearer to restoring its mining output. This of course means that less and less gold will hit the market. Which in centrally planned and regulated markets, means gold will collapse far more than the 1% so far, and likely close limit down, with Bernanke's compliment (don't worry that none of this makes logical sense: Heidelberg toner cartridge did a hostile take over of logic long, long ago).

European equities trying to decouple from EGBs and US equities, trying to trade “No news is good news”.

Low action day.

Short term trading strategy buy Spain on weekend bail-out hopes and resell rapidly might need to be deepened. Not much to chew on eventually.

Against a deflationary environment of austerity-driven wage and pension cuts combined with rising unemployment; food, commodity, and fuel prices continue to surge in Greece. The government has taken an unusual step - allowing the sale of expired food at lower prices. As Voz Populi reports, this act means the government has 'virtually admitted their inability to control prices" as the worst aspects of stagflation crush the Hellenic Republic. The regulation (allowing from one-week to one-month extensions of foods for sale post their eat-before-this-day-or-you'll-get-Salmonella date) has existed for many years, according to a ministerial decree and this action merely states that these foods must be sold at a lower price. Meat and dairy is excluded but this move is described as "an immoral act" as few believe prices will actually be reduced - since that is at the discretion of the merchant. As the National Food Agency notes: "This is also a moral dilemma, to divide consumers into two groups: those who can afford basic food and those who, because of poverty, are forced to resort to dubious quality food." We presume this will also reduce the drag on pension and healthcare costs as death rates will rise?

If you want to know how the Keynesian Cargo Cult's grand experiment in borrowing money to fund bloated fiefdoms, rapacious cartels and bridges to nowhere ends, just look west (from California) to Japan. The Japanese State, partly because they seem to believe in the Cargo Cult, and partly to avoid exposing the insolvency of their crony-capitalist financial sector, has been borrowing and spending money on a vast scale for two decades. Rather than face the fraud and corruption at the heart of American (and Japanese) finance and governance, the Keynesians just want to leave the predatory, parasitic crony-capitalist Status Quo intact and create an illusory world of bogus "demand" and grotesque malinvestment funded by ever-increasing debt. Does anyone seriously think this is the "road to recovery"? If you want a look at the fiscal future of the U.S., look west to Japan, a nation that sits precariously on a fiscal cliff a thousand feet high.

Nearly four years ago, we started a series of articles in which we methodically presented evidence that LIBOR was manipulated. Then, in late June, the biggest (to date) bank conspiracy was exposed, in which it was found beyond a reasonable doubt that at least one, and in many case all (including the BOE and Fed) were if not engaging, then certainly aware of numerous instances when daily USD LIBOR fixing was fudged one way or another for various non-fiduciary, read illegal purposes. When our conspiracy theory was confirmed to be conspiracy fact (as usual), we suggested the following: "Our advice to anyone who had an adjustable rate mortgage in the period between 2005 and today: speak to a lawyer immediately about suing the living feces out of Barclays, and all other banks who crawl out of the woodwork with purported settlements. Because due to their undisputed mark manipulation, it is absolutely safe to say that ARMs, which rely on Libor for interest rate formation, were grossly manipulated by the same idiot traders who left written evidence of their manipulation year after year. Now it is their turn to pay." As of last night, this too has occurred, after several homeowners, aka Adams et al (Southern New York, 12-cv-07461) launched a class action lawsuit against Bank of America and all other LIBOR banks, accusing the defendants of "unjustly enriched themselves" by manipulating the rate, which allowed them to increase the payments by homeowners on adjustable rate loans, and boosting profits.

Presented with little comment but comparing the free-fall in AAPL's share price to this amazing chest-cam video from Felix Baumgartner's jump yesterday must be how all those hedge fund feel this morning... AAPL is trading below its 100DMA.

The markets are all about timing. In this case, 55 weeks.

For the majority of Americans living along the country's coastlines, anything that is not within 50 miles of the the big water is pejoratively called "flyover states", its contents to be avoided at all costs, and its contributions to society and the economy to be loudly mocked and jeered at high society cocktail parties from the Hamptons to Malibu and back (but not inbetween). That is, until election time. Because when it comes to determining the fate of America's leadership every 4 years, the bankers, lawyers, venture capitalists, socialites, marketers, hedge funders, Economist PhDs, and other very important jobs, courtesy of the Electoral College, have absolutely no impact, and it all boils down to such swing states as Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Nevada. For the full cartoon presentation of what states do matter this election, see the cartoon below.